Castaway Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The whole picture looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Starting to see lightning with that cell SW of Joliet pick up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 We will be to Dwight in 20-25 mins ahead of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 CAPE won't be a factor this evening, only shear. Just incredible. Yeah, 5,000 to 7,000 J/KG of CAPE is only like child's play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Not raining here now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 No. I was only speaking of TOR threat mentioned by LOT. It's game on for high end damaging winds for region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yeah, 5,000 to 7,000 J/KG of CAPE is only like child's play... I think he means CAPE won't be a limiting factor/problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I was only speaking of TOR threat mentioned by LOT. It's game on for high end damaging winds for region. Your posts aren't making a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I was only speaking of TOR threat mentioned by LOT. It's game on for high end damaging winds for region. That shear is great for tornadoes, it might be best to dial back the commentary when you are unsure of what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I was only speaking of TOR threat mentioned by LOT. It's game on for high end damaging winds for region. Ahh okay. yeah 0-1KM shear right now is pathetic.But its not entirely a deal breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ton of thunder off in the distance from the cell just north of here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That cell west of Kankakee, and the new ones in Iowa are going to become pretty beastly. All of them are growing quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 The MCS that formed in ND & MN last night is going to make it to the Atlantic Coast off of South Carolina before midnight... Impressive It shouldn't last too much longer, as it out runs the best shear/dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ahh okay. yeah 0-1KM shear right now is pathetic.But its not entirely a deal breaker. 0-1 km shear is probably a bit stronger than indicated via mesoanalysis especially in E IL where there is some backing via observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Back to filtered sun, still 85/76 in DKB. Tor watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 the number of crazy posts is commensurate with the cape values BTW tornado watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Regular Tor watch issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 WWUS20 KWNS 132059 SEL3 SPC WW 132059 IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-LMZ000-140400- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWEST INDIANA LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410...WW 411...WW 412... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030. ...GUYER -- NWS Watches Provided by AllisonHouse.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The cap looks like it's starting to go now with a few cells from east of Cedar Rapids to near Joliet. We are probably going to go northeast and hope that the wind shift that appears to have shifted just east of here is enough to focus storm initiation in far east central IL within an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Trigger pulled on Tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 KARX... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSSTHE FOREST AREA. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KTS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AREALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPRECELLS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WE SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMSPERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXIT INTO SOUTHERNWISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERYWEAK...10 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING TORNADOES. HOWEVER IF WECAN ESTABLISH A STRONG ENOUGH SUPERCELL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEFTORNADO OR TWO JUST a constant rumble here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 0-1 km shear is probably a bit stronger than indicated via mesoanalysis especially in E IL where there is some backing via observations. VWP data from KLOT, KDVN, TORD, and KILX show about 10-20kts of 0-1KM SHR... so yeah, mesoanalysis is wrong with its values attm. EDIT: Also only 40/20 probs on the TOR watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Interesting... Guyer is a lot more bearish. 40/20 probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 40/20% tor probs, with 80% chance of 10 or more severe wind reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I really don't want to head over to the Iowa side, so may just stick with what may develop in this area. Cu is really boiling and building overhead now, so it could go at any time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Low probability of a wind report >65? Yeah I don't remotely buy that, especially if this is going to grow upscale into a MCS later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The cap looks like it's starting to go now with a few cells from east of Cedar Rapids to near Joliet. We are probably going to go northeast and hope that the wind shift that appears to have shifted just east of here is enough to focus storm initiation in far east central IL within an hour or so. In between Danville and Champaign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just about to get out of work. Will probably head west to make a play on the activity that comes out of E. IA or any new development in N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Storms thus far besides up in WI and in MO have remained pretty small thus far. Indicative that the cap-- at least whats left of it-- is still holding on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Lower probs than I was expecting. EDIT: Same probs our area had in a Slight Risk last week(TOR wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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