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July 11-14 Severe Weather Event


Powerball

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Low probability of a wind report >65? Yeah I don't remotely buy that, especially if this is going to grow upscale into a MCS later this evening.

Could be basing some of that off of the HRRR which never really grows upscale at all... Which would in turn cause some uncertainty with that. But its kind of on an island since most CAM's show upscale growth into a strong forward propagating MCS. 

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In between Danville and Champaign?

We are debating if east or north is the better play. The CU field appears more agitated along I-80 so we may go north. We are still sitting in Champaign because we have north and east highways available here and don't want to loose a play yet.
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As impressive as the dewpoints are now, it wouldn't be surprising to see them creep up still in many areas over the course of the next few hours as the moist axis moves east and daytime mixing is lost.  Certainly going to carry plenty of instability well into the evening hours in areas that don't get overturned.

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Just started raining here...  cell firing right over LSe...

 

 

Scratch that..its pouring now.

 

 

Not raining here now..

 

 

Ton of thunder off in the distance from the cell just north of here...

 

 

KARX...

 

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS

THE FOREST AREA. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6

KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KTS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE

ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPRECELLS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-

4000 J/KG. WE SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS

PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXIT INTO SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY

WEAK...10 KTS OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING TORNADOES. HOWEVER IF WE

CAN ESTABLISH A STRONG ENOUGH SUPERCELL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF

TORNADO OR TWO

 

 

 

JUST a constant rumble here right now.

 

 

Pouring again...some wind.... 

 

^^^These posts are why I love being under developing t'storms.

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cell over Will county has the look of a cold season storm when they get sheared apart (long and skinny look) from lack of surface instability with strong shear...may still be some CIN in that area and not utilizing its potential yet

 

new rapid developing of  CELL just west of Lasalle IL 

 

also the twins in eastern IA look like they are maturing

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ARX...

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
416 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WEST SALEM          43.91N 91.08W
07/13/2015                   LA CROSSE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            10FT TRAILER BLOWN OFF THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY
            16.

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Ric Kearbey A source tells me that the Storm Prediction Center is about to do a conference call with the NWS in Lincoln. They're concerned about this "cap" breaking down creating that explosive severe thunderstorm scenario I mentioned earlier today. If the cap holds strong, we limit storms. If it does break, we get concerned. Please stay close this evening and I'll keep you updated.
14 · 21 mins

 


 
Local MET
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