Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 252 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 252 PM CDT MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR EVIDENCE OF CONVECTION INITIATION. CAP NOTED IN DVN 18Z RAOB SUGGESTS A LITTLE LATER DEVELOPMENT...WHILE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL AND SUGGESTS MORE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RISK MAY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH/EAST. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND DVN DEPICT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAP NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (DVN)...AND EXTREME INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 5300 J/KG AT DVN AND 6600 J/KG AT ILX). BOTH SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THIS DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EROSION OF THE CAP AND TIME AND LOCATION OF INITIATION THE MAIN QUESTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT RAP RUNS DO INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE CAP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES ONE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AT 19Z...WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL RIPPLES NOTED BACK TOWARD SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR...SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION INITIATION MAY VERY WELL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE OUR NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTERSECTS A SW-NE SYNOPTIC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. STORM MODE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR CLUSTERS...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUSLY SOUTHWEST WITH THE WARM FRONT/OLD OUTFLOW LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER. THEREFORE THE INITIAL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT WEAKER 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH APPEAR TO INDICATE A LOWER TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH WILL STILL CERTAINLY EXIST WHERE A STORM INTERACTS WITH LOCALLY BACKED FLOW ALONG ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR/BOWING MCS IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING...PERHAPS CONGEALING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BEFORE EXITING INTO INDIANA. WITH THE WARM FRONT EVOLVING FARTHER NORTHEAST...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT ACROSS ABOUT ALL OF THE WFO CHICAGO CWA...AND HAVE COLLABORATED WITH SPC WHO WILL SHORTLY BE EXPANDING THE MODERATE RISK FARTHER NORTHEAST INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That guy's not posting for a while I meant Northern Missouri. You guy's don't let anyone live anything down do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 You guy's don't let anyone live anything down do you? i'm just pulling your leg feel free to get in on the trolling when i get rolled later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT FROM PARTS OF SRN WI TO ERN TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO WESTERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ..SUMMARY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY. ..PRIMARY CHANGES TO DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK /1/ WRN PART OF MDT/ENH AREAS HAVE BEEN MOVED NWD/NEWD/EWD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT EVOLVING FROM CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM NRN IL/SRN WI AND VICINITY -- INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE ENSUING MCS SPREADING SEWD NEAR THE NWD/NEWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AIR-MASS RECOVERY INTO N-CNTRL IL...WITH THE PROJECTED OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY POSITION/INSTABILITY GRADIENT/MCS TRACK FORECAST TO LIE FARTHER E THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EXTREME INSTABILITY IS SAMPLED ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS GRADIENT...WITH RELATED INFLOW SUPPORTING MULTIPLE SWATHS OF SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SEWD INTO KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /2/ SRN PART OF SLGT AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD TO PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING KY/SRN-OH MCS SPREADING SEWD WITH A DMGG-WIND RISK CONTINUING GIVEN A STRONGLY DESTABILIZING INFLOW AIR MASS. /3/ NRN PART OF SLGT AREA HAS EXTENDED NWWD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF ERN MN/WRN WI WHERE ENHANCED DEEP ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SVR TSTM RISK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MODEST-BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. ..COHEN.. 07/13/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I was just checking my GRLevel3 at southeast Kentucky (JKL radar). The small town of Vortex, Kentucky is about to get straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Definitely looks more like the 2nd day 2 outlook yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 A couple of cells west of rochester Maintaining themselves quite well thus far...should see nice growth there with these cells as they continue to move into more unstable areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The sky's got that angry simmering look here in Champaign-Urbana. And it looks like you can see some gravity waves rolling through on KILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Hey Hey! SPC came back to their senses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 First warning up between Rice Lake, WI and the MN border. A few more discrete cells have popped as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 elevated CU field now visible to the west from the loop 18z 4km blows up sups just southeast of the city and absolutely destroys LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 elevated CU field now visible to the west from the loop 18z 4km blows up sups just southeast of the city and absolutely destroys LAF Was just gonna say...a little more agitation ongoing overhead...starting to get some vertical growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Stuff starting to get going around the Chicago Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 You guy's don't let anyone live anything down do you? i'm just pulling your leg feel free to get in on the trolling when i get rolled later You have to have been there to understand. But yeah, now that North and East is the trend, hop on the alek bandwagon in about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Growing cu field visible from I-80 at the IA/IL stateline, on the Illinois side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 elevated CU field now visible to the west from the loop 18z 4km blows up sups just southeast of the city and absolutely destroys LAF That supercell it brings W of RFD looks disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I count at least 10 sites in Illinois with dewpoints of 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Well, here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I count at least 10 sites in Illinois with dewpoints of 80+ Yeah that's pretty impressive. DVN up to 90/81/109. Cu starting to build a little better here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 . Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm in Oak Brook, I see CU out west, but nothing overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Could potentially be a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Convection starting to get going NW of Davenport. Should explode soon once it gets into East IA/West IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Could potentially be a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch Nah tornado threat is too great, it might carry PDS Severe watch probabilities for wind but it will be a tornado watch that would come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cell just nw of here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Watch in IL is going to be a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cell popped just south of 88/39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Tower going by waterloo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 TCU and a rainshower or two near/north of CID. Agitated/towering cu in a few spots out that way as well. On the leading edge of the forcing/height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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