tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Modified 18Z DVN sounding to represent current obs... wow. Can probably modify all the temps below the cap to make the lapse rate dry adiabatic instead of superadiabatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That is one nasty sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The instability gradient is already setting over of the metro area with continued theta-e/moisture advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 more SW flow might be the kiss of good this time around, instead of all this really veered westerly low-level winds we are getting... Over C IL its much more SW'ly, but across northern and western Illinois its increasingly more of a westerly flow, which in turn makes the wind profile pretty unidirectional. VWP from DVN does a good job of showing this, and the HRRR also shows most of the flow veering to westerly across most of the area later on which could temper the tornado threat some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 60,000 in the Cincinnati metro area are without power. I'm lucky. http://outagemap.duke-energy.com/ohky/default.html Some pictures http://www.wlwt.com/weather/more-warnings-issued-as-line-of-storms-moves-southeast/25685968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 A couple of cells west of rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 more SW flow might be the kiss of good this time around, instead of all this really veered westerly low-level winds we are getting... Over C IL its much more SW'ly, but across northern and western Illinois its increasingly more of a westerly flow, which in turn makes the wind profile pretty unidirectional. VWP from DVN does a good job of showing this, and the HRRR also shows most of the flow veering to westerly across most of the area later on which could temper the tornado threat some. Plainfield occurred in W-WNW sfc flow. If you get a dominant supercell that turns right, all bets are off with this kind of atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Dews, if the local weather sensors are right, are in the mid 70's locally. 83/72 here, but, may be higher, another sensor a mile and half north says 83/76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Would have to imagine that if any discrete cell forms near this boundary, it could have an elevated tornado threat. Note that the environment throughout most of Illinois is favorable for tornadoes, so it's not to say a storm has to form in this region, but if one did, I'd be fairly concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Similar to the areas impacted during the 6/22 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Storm motion is SE, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 83/76 At Clow Airport in Bolingbrook.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 IWX Afternoon Discussion: SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 RAPID DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EXPECTED AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. 18Z DVN SPECIAL SOUNDING SAMPLED NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM H850 TO H500 AND NEARLY 100 KNOTS OF FLOW ABOVE 300MB. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S BENEATH THIS EML...EXPECT EXTREME INSTABILITY OF 4000 TO 6000 J/KG BY 22Z. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS EVENING. HP SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. DURING THIS 22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXTREMELY LOW LCLS COUPLED WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED TORNADIC RISK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER 850 FLOW (35 TO 40 KNOTS) FROM THE LATEST HRRR VERIFIES. EACH RUN OF THE HRRR HAS ADVECTED THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER EAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A GREATER THREAT FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT AREA OF FOCUS WHICH IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN INDIANA. MOST OF THE CWA RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE ROUND OF RAIN THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH A VERY HIGH THETA E AIRMASS AND TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Would have to imagine that if any discrete cell forms near this boundary, it could have an elevated tornado threat. Note that the environment throughout most of Illinois is favorable for tornadoes, so it's not to say a storm has to form in this region, but if one did, I'd be fairly concerned. boundary.gif 18z HRRR lights up that area in the next few hours, in addition to development in MN/WI that drops toward Chicago later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Best guess is SPC doesn't change much in the 20Z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Best guess is SPC doesn't change much in the 20Z update. Only thing I could see them expanding would be the Slight Risk, maybe also trimming a bit off the moderate further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 HRRR also still shows a discrete (possibly tornadic) supercell running close to Rockford, IL, and has hinted at this for several runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Best guess is SPC doesn't change much in the 20Z update. Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs. ^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs. AGREED. Explosive Development occurring in Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs. They've proven to be stubborn before on convective outlooks... especially the 20Z update, that was more so my reasoning for that. But yes I agree that that is likely the highest threat area at this point, basically along the instability/theta-E gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 AGREED. Explosive Development occurring in Iowa right now. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I bet we see little change from SPC, even if it's warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most of the current mdt is going to be capped. The mdt needs to be shifted back to where it was in the 2nd day 2 yesterday. Focus is going to be RFD-JOT-LAF for this event, the MKX/LOT/IWX/IND CWAs. This one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 AGREED. Explosive Development occurring in Iowa right now. we looking at the same radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Where? I meant Northern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 AGREED. Explosive Development occurring in Iowa right now. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I bet we see little change from SPC, even if it's warranted. Can we just wait for the outlook before trying to pass off premature judgment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 haha definitely not iowa and definitely not explosive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That guy's not posting for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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