A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Okay just making sure when your neighborhood gets smoked this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 LOT at 77/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I mentioned the Coal City day earlier, but if you'll recall, there was a zone of festering crapvection well into the afternoon before things took off. Much quicker clearing today and assuming no early initiation, should theoretically should open the door to areas farther north in IL and maybe WI than what occurred that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 84/77 DVN 86/79 SQI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Full sun bright blue skies, after clouds most of the morning. Temps dropped when the mcs came thorough, but have rebounded to a 80/72 already. I'm sitting in a hot spot, things are gonna get gnarly. Sad thing is, everyone at work is saying so much for these storms, they all went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Initial MCS now running into some nice instability in southern IN.... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015INC079-131745-/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150713T1745Z/JENNINGS IN-120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN JENNINGS COUNTYUNTIL 145 PM EDT...AT 116 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH VERNON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR COUNTRY SQUIRELAKES.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...VERNON AROUND 125 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PARIS CROSSING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some high clouds over me now, but they're hauling SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Initial MCS now running into some nice instability in southern IN.... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 INC079-131745- /O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150713T1745Z/ JENNINGS IN- 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN JENNINGS COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT... AT 116 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH VERNON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR COUNTRY SQUIRE LAKES. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... VERNON AROUND 125 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PARIS CROSSING. Just south of it in East Louisville. Sky just beginning to get dark to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Wow mostly sunny, 86/76 at KPIA....powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 KPVB up to 83/75 now in SW wisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some clouds out here in Racine, but mostly sunny overall. Up to 75°/68° at UGN. Shouldn't be long before hitting 70°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just got nailed by that MCS... best severe storm I've seen in a while (of course we've been 'unlucky' over the past year or so). Getting a whole bunch of rain... the quiet creek in my back yard is now a raging river and it's still raining. Looks like Indianapolis is clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 All you young forecasters at home need to read Ratzer's meso AFD, save it, print it off, and use it as your blueprint to severe storm nowcasting and short-fuse forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Thinking they almost have to pull the trigger on a High Risk today. I believe this morning showed a prime example of what 80+ mph winds will do destruction wise considering all the downed trees from 50-60 across IN this AM. Just could have incredible amounts of damage this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some real nice surface/moisture convergence up in northeast IA north of Waterloo. Dews pooling in the upper 70s just ahead of the convergence area. Cu starting to pop in the area as well. I'm guessing we see initiation somewhere over northeast IA in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some real nice surface/moisture convergence up in northeast IA north of Waterloo. Dews pooling in the upper 70s just ahead of the convergence area. Cu starting to pop in the area as well. I'm guessing we see initiation somewhere over northeast IA in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 IND .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 131800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITHSUB-IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER STORMS.SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUING ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST ACROSSSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA. KBMG STILL BEING IMPACTEDCURRENTLY...BUT SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THERE BETWEEN18-19Z. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF THE STORMCOMPLEX WITH SUNSHINE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING TO RETURN TOALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. E/SE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE STORMSWILL QUICKLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY SPORADICALLY GUST LATETHIS AFTERNOON.FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE CONVECTIONBY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOISINTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHTHE DETAILS...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME WHEN THINK BIGGEST IMPACTSFROM NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IMPACTS THE TERMINALS DURING THEEVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL BE CARRYING VCTS FROM 21-22ZTHROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THERE ARE HINTS AT EVEN FURTHER CONVECTIONAFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nice. What pops there will dig hard to the southeast and ride the extreme cape ridge. Storms are going to have one hell of an atmosphere to munch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gino starting the conf call right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gino said don't get hung up on where the MDT risk is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some real nice surface/moisture convergence up in northeast IA north of Waterloo. Dews pooling in the upper 70s just ahead of the convergence area. Cu starting to pop in the area as well. I'm guessing we see initiation somewhere over northeast IA in the next few hours. Was just checking that out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think by 20z - northeastern IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Couple 80 degree dews in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 dvn sounding.gif Guess it couldn't be bothered to include data above 400 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gil over at NIU. He put this out at noon. FORECAST DISCUSSION: One thing is for sure: I knew going into today thatthe forecast was going to be extremely difficult after the initial squallline of thunderstorms had gone through. And as of 11:15 AM, I can say thatmy thinking has met my expectations. Warmer air aloft is streaming intothe area now, putting a "cap" on things. A stationary front now sitsalong I-39, and an outflow boundary extends from near Freeport throughcentral DeKalb county with a rain shower that has formed. Another outflowboundary was in eastern Iowa through central Illinois. As the temperaturesget up close to 90 degrees, and with a weak upper disturbance movingthrough, it may be enough to generate scattered thunderstorms. I do notthink that these will be as organized as what we saw early this morning.That having been said...that's not good news. Given the southerly winds atthe surface, and northwest winds aloft, the magnitude of the wind shearfor this time of year is disturbing. As you can see, we cleared out by 9AM, and the temperatures and atmospheric instability is skyrocketing.After knocking us out of the moderate risk and bumping us to slight, theStorm Prediction Center has put us back in an enhanced risk and has alsoput us in a 10% risk of tornadoes, some possibly strong/violent. I agreewith this assessment, and it appears as though the highest risk will bealong I-39 from Rockford to Ottawa, and eastward to Chicago. Localizedtornado enhancement could occur along the stationary front, and along anyoutflow boundaries, as well as the lake breeze. The bottom line is this:explosive thunderstorm development is likely, once the cap breaks, latethis afternoon and this evening. Individual storms (not a line) is thelikely storm mode, and given the magnitude of the wind shear, they willlikely rotate. Large, and possibly very large hail up to baseball size,60-100 MPH winds, and a few tornadoes, some possibly intense, may occuracross portions of our forecast area between 3 PM and 10 PM. Given theamount of moisture in the air, localized 2"+ amounts in 30 minutes time isa given for the most intense storms, causing flash flooding. MAKE SURE YOUHAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF ACCESSING WEATHER WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND THISEVENING. Although the severe/tornado threat is conditional, if you get hitby one of these storms, you are going to know it, and will want to knowabout it. Trust me on this. And if you miss everything, which is possible,that does not mean that there wasn't any danger to you. It means you gotoff fortunate. Some people may not by tonight...so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Couple 80 degree dews in Illinois flood gates are open....evaportranspiration kickin in overdrive now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gino said don't get hung up on where the MDT risk is Couldn't agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 7000 Sbcape starting to show up in W IL on the Mesoscale Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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