CanadianGuy Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Tornado watch up for southern and central MN with high risk severe wind probs Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 18z 4km NAM would be a nightmare scenario for the DVN cwa. Several sups blow up in eastern IA and blast across the heart of the cwa with full access to some of the highest instability. Low-levels winds remained backed as well. Large sups are shown blasting through the ILX cwa as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just got about a quarter inch of rain from a rogue cell... this is the result. The yard is swampy now... just after 0.25". Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Tornado watch up for southern and central MN with high risk severe wind probs Sent from my GT-N8010 yep, pretty much all of southern/central MN except LaCrosse/LaCrescent and Winona. I'm thinking though they'll get a watch once things get roaring, but more likely severe thunderstorm variety for high gusts. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0406.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 18z 4km NAM would be a nightmare scenario for the DVN cwa. Several sups blow up in eastern IA and blast across the heart of the cwa with full access to some of the highest instability. Low-levels winds remained backed as well. Large sups are shown blasting through the ILX cwa as well. Was just checking that out. Some absolute bombs with tremendous updraft helicities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just got about a quarter inch of rain from a rogue cell... this is the result. The yard is swampy now... just after 0.25". Crazy. Add 70-80mph winds (or even slower winds) and you're looking at a whole lot of downed trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Was just checking that out. Some absolute bombs with tremendous updraft helicities. Yep. Gonna be one of those setups where it goes from nothing to a 50kft top in a few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Watch is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Add 70-80mph winds (or even slower winds) and you're looking at a whole lot of downed trees... We also have quite a few dead trees in the neighborhood because of Emerald Ash Borers. We had 2-3 trees fall in the neighborhood earlier this year for a non-severe warned MCS. The winds weren't even that strong. I just don't feel too good about the potential tomorrow... I have a feeling it'll go just to my west. Still gonna be fun to track... and I'm glad we're finally in this kind of pattern. This is what I missed last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Are helicities expected to increase as they move south? Currently the atmosphere doesn't seem to have much spin in that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just saw a tower go up looking off to SW from north of St Paul. Held its own for about 15 min but then died. Once the cap busts it's all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Are helicities expected to increase as they move south? Currently the atmosphere doesn't seem to have much spin in that region Even if you combine modest helicity with massive w gradients in the vertical (with this much cape, your updrafts are going to be very strong), you'll get spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Was at a party 2 miles N of Decatur and watched this beast roll in. Thought I saw a broad rotating wall cloud, but much of my view was obscured by terrain and darkness. Lost power 4 times, and had prolific lighting. Still large areas of flooding in Decatur this morning. Yes it was a monster! Bunch of damage between long creek and la place wouldn't be surprised if it was caused by a tornadoSent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 HRRR doesn't have a very good grip on what's happening. The cap is stronger than it's thinking. What the radar should look like It doesn't even look like the clouds in eastern SD are even close to popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just looking at those VILs in the western MN storm, somebody south of Fergus Falls is going to lose their crop to hail. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 Just looking at those VILs in the western MN storm, somebody south of Fergus Falls is going to lose their crop to hail. Yikes. 1hr rainfall estimates of 2-4" too. Slow moving, hail producing storm is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 This scan is really far off the ground... but still some extremely strong rotation in this cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 12, 2015 Share Posted July 12, 2015 ILX mentioned QLCS Tornadoes for tomorrow's event Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 MN supercells starting to edge se a bit into higher CAPE and better bulk shear. As Bette Davis said, "Fasten your seatbelts. It's gonna be a bumpy night." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 8000 SBCAPE in SE NE. Gonna be some fun soundings tonight. One significant wind report so far... 80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 MN supercells starting to edge se a bit into higher CAPE and better bulk shear. As Bette Davis said, "Fasten your seatbelts. It's gonna be a bumpy night." yep, and it looks like the outflow boundary ahead of the Alexandria cell is past Sauk Center, given the westerly winds in an otherwise Southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most of the cams have a N-S linear line reaching E MN within the next few hours. Current radar trends not yet supporting that idea. Things certainly not materializing yet in SW MN or the Dakotas. the n/s linear idea may not be in the cards, but the storms coming down from Alex-Brainerd to the twin cities is on the table, and viable, as was shown by other models leading up to this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Basically those cells in MN are forming the derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Basically those cells in MN are forming the derecho? yep. now we see how ugly it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Basically those cells in MN are forming the derecho? It's possible. We already have 1 significant wind report and it's moving into extreme CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 the n/s linear idea may not be in the cards, but the storms coming down from Alex-Brainerd to the twin cities is on the table, and viable, as was shown by other models leading up to this evening. Yep they look to be making a slight SE jog now. Interesting to watch that little cell develop over Morris and get sucked right into the main cell NE of there. Thing is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Most unstable sounding of the night award goes to OAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 take a look folks at the MUCAPE gradient and the path where this cluster is going. almost parallel, with the southern edge lined up to hit the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What speed are those cells headed SE? I am wondering at what point this effects the outcome of atmospheric recovery tomorrow for Southern WI and Northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Rotation in a bunch of the MN cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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