canderson Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Sun's poked through for the first time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Today is actually a pretty good setup. The key for me is the expected time of day for favorable initiation. These storms are forecasted to fire and hold strong during our climatologically best time for severe (21z-2z). That time frame always peaks my interest since that's when you get your best heating. Might be a good day for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Sun in and out, not as much as I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Timing of these might be bad. The US Women s Open is going on in Lancaster and there are thousands and thousands of people at the Lancaster County Club. Could get dicey if things turn south there later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Pretty clear here now, been sun for a little while. Not sure if it helps our cause, but can't hurt I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1339.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1159 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND FAR NORTH VACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 091659Z - 091900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INCREASINGDAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOONPARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV ANDADJACENT FAR NORTHERN VA.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKEERIE VICINITY TOWARD NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE APRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARDACROSS PA/NJ. UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV/FARSOUTHWEST PA AT 17Z SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND POTENTIALLY GROWUPSCALE OVER TIME...WHILE ADDITIONAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SHOULDALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF/PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY.INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PACOINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERYAMID AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED WARM SECTOR.ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A COMBINATION OFSEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE LINE/BOWSWILL BE AIDED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG STRENGTHENING BELT OFLOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAMUPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESTRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL...PARTICULARLYIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS PA /ANDEVENTUALLY NJ/...GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 these events are almost always late afternoon early evening. The more sun the better the chance of storms. it is calle d selft destructive sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Tornado watch just went out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Wait...they hype the threat in the eastern parts of the region, then issue the watch in the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 In and out of sun, 80.4 here. Feeling a let down, hoping someone gets something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Wait...they hype the threat in the eastern parts of the region, then issue the watch in the west? with the rotation in some of the storms across western PA already they had to get that one issued... they will expand the watch eastward later as the threat gets a little closer as they watch conditions continue to evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 LOL CTP radar just went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Looks pretty amped up around Somerset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Back up, so far no real spinners. Actually upon a closer look, cells may already be lining up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 In and out of sun, 80.4 here. Feeling a let down, hoping someone gets something interesting. Let down about what, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Possible severe, not for you guys, up here where less sun made it out. Wait and see though, you never really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It hasn't been all that sunny here. I think you see more severe than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Guess we'll see, still peeks of sun here, looks like more line segments than cellular, so probably smaller chace of weak TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 9, 2015 Author Share Posted July 9, 2015 Sun's been out pretty much all day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Warning for Centre/Clearfield allowed to expire, only one warning currently on the line. Looks like S. counties may have a nice line with the one in SW/SC PA later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 well i was hoping whatever hit would do it early, but it appears about the time my nephews Baseball game starts (6) it'll hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Warning for Centre/Clearfield allowed to expire, only one warning currently on the line. Looks like S. counties may have a nice line with the one in SW/SC PA later though. thats what i was just eye balling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Good old Willpo looks to pull of the 7/10 split, but in all honesty not much is that impressive yet to be missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Storm to watch is in W. Cumberland Co. Nice little cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Small line of severe thunderstorms beginning to form near the Cumberland gap. As this convection progresses east into the higher instability, we should see further development. Low level shear continues to increase. The greatest threat for weak tornadoes will be any cells out ahead of this line that is forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 LOL and LSV pulls out killer line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Things might get very gnarly in Lancaster and Berks counties in about an hour or so - the storms are starting to fire west of Harrisburg and will get some strength coming down the mountains and hitting the atmosphere with no impediment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Still watching if any discrete cells fire, if not probably mainly a wind damage threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 As I get older I have still have interest in severe storms but not the cost of damage or power outage. Just go around me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 As I get older I have still have interest in severe storms but not the cost of damage or power outage. Just go around me After losing power for 3 days last year, I gotta say I mainly agree. Dumping here now, but zero wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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