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Central PA and the fringes - Summer into Fall


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Heading up to Mount Washington this weekend and planning my drive. Does anybody have a good PA fall foliage report? Looking to take full advantage of seeing the colors while on my trip. I know I'll be seeing a lot up in NE, but I'll be sure to make a stop or two on my up if conditions look prime!

well i hope you stop along the way for some Lobsah Rolls

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I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.

 

1.)  The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory.  It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag.  Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking.

post-1389-0-03194300-1444833699_thumb.pn

 

2.)  We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best:

post-1389-0-48819900-1444833773_thumb.pn

 

3.)  The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October.  

post-1389-0-71789000-1444833871_thumb.pn

 

3.5)  The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin.  

 

 

See you next winter.

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I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.

 

1.)  The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory.  It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag.  Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking.

attachicon.gifWSI_ENSOState.PNG

 

2.)  We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best:

attachicon.gifSAI_10142015.PNG

 

3.)  The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October.  

attachicon.gifnao.sprd2.png

 

3.5)  The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin.  

 

 

See you next winter.

 

1) Actually, State College had just above climo snowfall during '97-'98, the strongest El Nino on record. For the second strongest El Nino, '82-'83, Harrisburg received 36" of snow (granted, mostly from the PD storm). Another strong El Nino occured during '65-'66, when 43" was recorded at Harrisburg. So I think the idea that strong El Ninos are detrimental to snowfall in central PA is not quite accurate.

 

This El Nino also looks to fall short of '97-'98 in terms of SST anomalies. We will also have to see the how the atmosphere responds to the anomalous forcing from this feature; how the waves excited by this convection propagate and constructively/destructively interfere will be important.

 

2) We will have to see how snow cover gains progress through the rest of the month. I don't think its necessarily a bad thing to have lower snow cover relative to normal in Eurasia during the early portion of October, especially if followed by a rapid advancement in extent through the end of the month. I haven't checked myself but others on the forum have suggested that there may be significant snow cover gains in Eurasia during the latter half of the month.

 

Of course, the SAI/SCE was a poor predictor of the AO state last winter. If I recall correctly, the SAI value was one of the highest recorded and therefore suggested a very negative AO for the winter. The mean winter AO ended up somewhat positive.

 

Also, this recent paper (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054083/full) suggests that the SAI/AO relationship emerged relatively recently in the 1970s; before this period the correlation was weaker and even reversed sign (large SAI correlated with +AO). That gives me some pause as to whether the SAI is a reliable predictor of the winter AO or is merely a product of some more complex long-term cyclical relationship or related to climate change.

 

3) Why not? What does the NAO in October have to do with the NAO for DJFM?

 

3.5) I don't see much of a persistent feature in that region of the Pacific. It looks like the most negative height anomalies are forecast to be over the Aleutians over the next week or so. Even with that, I'm not sure there is much of a correlation between these features in October and the following winter.

 

I'm not saying that it might not be a warm and relatively snowless winter, but I don't see any glaring signs that lead to that conclusion at the moment.

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Looking forward to some great fall weather this weekend.  Even after winter was just cancelled... lol

 

I'll worry about winter a month from now.  Plenty of weather to enjoy in between (and time for subtle changes - good or bad)...I'm a realist but its way to early to call anything.

 

Enjoy

 

Nut

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FYI, CTP is making some changes for the thresholds of their winter weather products in the Lower Susquehanna Valley (LSV).  Personally, I do not agree with this.  It's amazing how poorly society handles even 2" of snow these days.  When I was a kid, school systems wouldn't even blink at an event less than 6".  Disclaimer:  not bashing any NWS staff/office, DOT, OEM, etc. 

 

 

 

 

000

NOUS41 KCTP 161547
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-171600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

...SOME WINTER WATCH...WARNING...AND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE
CHANGING IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA COLLABORATED THE FOLLOWING CHANGES TO WINTER
THRESHOLDS WITH LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND NEIGHBORING
NWS OFFICES FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON TO BETTER SERVE THESE
AREAS:

1.) LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY (ADAMS - CUMBERLAND - DAUPHIN
- FRANKLIN - LANCASTER - LEBANON - PERRY AND YORK COUNTIES):

** 12 HOUR SNOW CRITERIA:

- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REDUCED FROM 3 INCHES TO 2
INCHES IN 12 HOURS.

- WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REDUCED FROM 6 INCHES TO 5
INCHES IN 12 HOURS.

** 24 HOUR HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA:

- WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REDUCED FROM 8 INCHES TO 7
INCHES IN 24 HOURS.

** WIND CHILL CRITERIA:

- WIND CHILL ADVISORY RANGES REDUCED FROM -15F TO -24F TO
-10F TO -24F.

- WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA REMAINS UNCHANGED AT -25F OR
COLDER.

** RATIONALE FOR CHANGES: SNOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WAS LOWERED TO BETTER SERVICE HIGHER
POPULATION CENTERS...MEDIA MARKETS AND COMMUTING AREAS. THE NEW
THRESHOLDS ARE BETTER ALIGNED WITH REAL OBSERVED IMPACTS WITHIN
THE REGION (TRAFFIC AND SCHOOL CLOSURES ETC) AND PROVIDE SEAMLESS
CRITERIA FOR MEDIA ALONG STATE BORDERS. THE NEW ALIGNMENTS ALSO
IMPROVE FORECAST COLLABORATION BETWEEN NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES
SERVING THE REGION.


2.) NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (CAMERON - CLINTON (NORTHERN) - ELK -
LYCOMING (NORTHERN) - MCKEAN - POTTER - SULLIVAN - TIOGA AND
WARREN COUNTIES):

** ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA:

- ICE STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION INCREASED
FROM 1/4 INCH TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE.

- FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW RANGES FROM A TRACE TO
0.49" OF ICE ACCUMULATION/ACCRETION.

** RATIONALE FOR CHANGE: THE NEW CRITERIA BETTER DEFINES WARNING
LEVEL IMPACTS (E.G. NEW 1/2" OR GREATER ICE ACCUMULATION BETTER
CORRELATES WITH LOSS OF LARGER TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES THAN
FORMER 1/4" OR GREATER CRITERIA).


PLEASE ADDRESS QUESTIONS AND/OR COMMENTS TO PETER JUNG...NWS STATE
COLLEGE PA WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...AT (814) 231-2423.

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

$

DEVOIR/WATSON/JUNG

 

Note:  Edited for content. 

 



 

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I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.

 

1.)  The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory.  It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag.  Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking.

attachicon.gifWSI_ENSOState.PNG

 

2.)  We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best:

attachicon.gifSAI_10142015.PNG

 

3.)  The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October.  

attachicon.gifnao.sprd2.png

 

3.5)  The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin.  

 

 

See you next winter.

For your area punting is a good idea!

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Blah. Thanks guys. I guess a side trip to the Adirondack might be in order. Leaving extremely early on Friday, so plenty of time to make it up. Can't get there before 7pm anyway. On the bright side, the upcoming pattern will be great for the foliage. I would bet northern PA will be turning rapidly starting this weekend. Of course, ridge looks to come back next week.....

Leaves has turned quite a bit this week. Some places up in northern Pa. they should be about peak. Getting close just north of Wmpst.
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Seeing the first mangled flakes of the season here this afternoon. I call it that over graupel because some of the pellets have 5 points that are pretty rounded off. Looks more like flakes falling into a marginal b-layer and partially melting over a rime ice coated flake. Either way, fairly early to see the frozen stuff return here just off the Alleghenies (~1200ft elev). 

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I'm punting on Winter 2015-16.

1.) The ENSO state continues to move deeper and deeper into record territory. It also shows no sign of leveling off or weakening, which is a major red flag. Strong El Nino's don't work out too well for PA without major blocking.

WSI_ENSOState.PNG

2.) We're half way through October and the Siberian snow cover / snow advance is muted at best:

SAI_10142015.PNG

3.) The NAO state is pathetic, yes it's a 30 - 50 day oscillation, but the forecast shows a +1 to +1.5 STD NAO which you don't want to see in October.

nao.sprd2.png

3.5) The persistent low in the Gulf of Alaska is, in my opinion, the final nail in the coffin.

See you next winter.

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Many other well respected forecasters do Not agree with this at all. There are many computer models that show a great pattern setting up for this winter in the east . There are several El- Niño winters that have produced good snow in our region, with the most recent being 2010.

This is Not time to punt ! I plan on us spiking the football in March after another great winter in Central PA !

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