Rick G Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Here's the thing, with the latest rain, our ground is close to be saturated. IT won't take much to make it totally saturated.We don't have the drying effect of the sun. IF we get some wind then the leaves will do their part and block the storm drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is OTS with it again. Watch it win. EURO OP might be too far east. Gotta go with the ensembles (GFS & EURO) when dealing with such a complex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 EURO OP might be too far east. Gotta go with the ensembles (GFS & EURO) when dealing with such a complex pattern. Oh, I agree - can't dance with a sole model here at all. I don't buy it much - I see no way it can get shot out eastward with the strength building toward the coast. It goes against physics too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm back, been fairly busy and the weather had been anything but busy until this week. I definitely think the East Coast is currently facing the biggest tropical threat we've seen since Hurricane Sandy back in 2012, although this would figure to be a more traditional landfalling tropical system vs the hybrid monstrosity that Sandy turned into. Big similarity is anomalous blocking high up north being progged which would leave Joaquin with few escape/recurve options. Basically, to me.. it has that look for a tropical system to drive into the East Coast vs a glance or recurve. The European seems to be one of the only models that has had it escape, and it looks to be continuing that trend in the 12z run coming in. So that's a pretty reliable model sticking out in the face of most of the other models progging this to make landfall somewhere on the East Coast. I only have access to the Euro ensemble mean and the 0z run from last night certainly appeared to lend to some uncertainly and likely some closer and/or landfalling members within the mean. So obviously, much uncertainty remains and it will likely continue being that way for the next couple days. Definietely something that most on the East Coast should be monitoring carefully. As for the storm itself, it figures to potentially become quite strong.. likely becoming a major hurricane given favorable conditions. SST's in that region this time of the year would already be quite favorable to begin with normally but are in fact running anomalously warm in a good portion of the Atlantic (something that has my attention for the winter, but that's for another day). Concerning to me are the landfalling models all making a pretty hard left turn into the coast in response to that blocking high. That's a bad approach storm surge wise for most of the East Coast.. specifically in the Mid Atlantic/DelMarva region (and of course farther north on the Jersey shore and NYC). There already would figure to be a high surf/coastal flooding threat just from the easterly fetch between the sprawling high and hurricane without Joaquin potentially riding that straight into the coast. While I don't foresee this going full Sandy, this hurricane will have more top end potential in the traditional sense.. given that we are nearly a full month earlier in the fall (warmer water). With enough strength and forward momentum, a major hurricane landfall could certainly be a possibility.. something the US hasn't seen since 2005 (Wilma). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Latest NOAA track has Joaquin entering the Chesapeake and swimming up the Susquehanna directly head-first into Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Latest NOAA track has Joaquin entering the Chesapeake and swimming up the Susquehanna directly head-first into Harrisburg. Fun Times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 2 - 105 mph winds as of the 8pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It'll change 100 more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I just saw the hurricane hunters are seeing cat 3 signals at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From the 500, check out the last one. Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion 1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion. 2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. 3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings. 4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening. 6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 1.27" inches of rain from last night. Hurricane Joaquin is going to be interesting to follow....thanks for the updates! Question: Heading down to Harrisburg Saturday to the farm show complex. "Keystone classic BBQ state championship" what's the weather looking like Sat. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see Joaquin be Cat 3 at dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillyfan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see Joaquin be Cat 3 at dawn. psst... It already is at CAT 3 according to Recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 psst... It already is at CAT 3 according to Recon Stronger solution would support the EURO...after all this excitement for some real weather watch this thing pass harmlessly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Oz GFS is worst-case scenario. Landfall at Atlantc City. Sandy, Part Deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC 2AM places Category 1 Hurricane just southeast of Washington DC at 8pm Mon evening. Extrapolation keeps it heading right up the Susky valley. WOW. Also shows it reaches Cat 4 later tomorrow. Was Agnes still a hurricane when it reached PA? Has there ever been a hurricane located inside PA borders??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC 2AM places Category 1 Hurricane just southeast of Washington DC at 8pm Mon evening. Extrapolation keeps it heading right up the Susky valley. WOW. Also shows it reaches Cat 4 later tomorrow. Was Agnes still a hurricane when it reached PA? Has there ever been a hurricane located inside PA borders??? I believe that Hazel in 1954 was a cat 1 while she was in PA. Edited to add that Hazel held Cat 1 intensity all the way up to Lock Haven, but was listed as extratropical, I suppose, due to her high latitude and interaction with a cold front. Still she had 80 mph sustained winds all the way up to I-80 in Central PA. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1954/Major-Hurricane-Hazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just looked at the 6z GFS, and it's amazing. We have a fish storm. The GFS has fully caved to the Euro as Joaquin doesn't even hug the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just looked at the 6z GFS, and it's amazing. We have a fish storm. The GFS has fully caved to the Euro as Joaquin doesn't even hug the coast. Another feather in the cap for King EURO and another embarasment for the US numerical models. Total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agnes was a tropical storm when it hit PA. I do not remember any wind with the storm, but I do remember the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Another feather in the cap for King EURO and another embarasment for the US numerical models. Total bust. I have to agree on a few things you glossed over, I know to some talking about frost, or low temps, or monthly records is fun but we have been in dire need of interesting weather, and once again it falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I have to agree on a few things you glossed over, I know to some talking about frost, or low temps, or monthly records is fun but we have been in dire need of interesting weather, and once again it falls apart. The latest GFS run gives you about 0.25" of rain through 120 hours. That's about as interesting as it gets for us Central PA folks...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stick a fork in Joaquin. Time to track the first frost and see what we can salvage from this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll end up having a pretty nice fall weekend. Good deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Another feather in the cap for King EURO and another embarasment for the US numerical models. Total bust. Perfect tune-up for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll end up having a pretty nice fall weekend. Good deal! Meh...still looks like it will be cloudy with temps meandering between the 40s and 50s. Of course, that may be your definition of a nice fall weekend, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Perfect tune-up for winter. Soon it will be time to bump the complaint thread back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Blue Mountain brick wall appears to be alive and well as we head into the 2015-2016 winter storm/nor'easter season. Watching the radar returns push north out of Virginia and practically stop dead at the Lehigh/Schuylkill County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's amazing all the moisture over Virginia and eastern North Carolina, and yet little, if any of that, is going to make it north of the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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