Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[Chitown Storm]

MPX mentioned this morning that if the Thanksgiving system doesn't produce any snow, it will be only the 3rd time since 1884 that the Twin Cities will not have had measurable snow before December (1928 and 1963).

[Hoosier]

Yea right ,   c'mon man who do you think you're talking to here?   That's like taking a hit off a crack pipe and saying, "wow, I'm good for a couple months now".   

 

 

I'm a fan of frontloaded winters but personally, I'm good for a few weeks.  Being out driving on Saturday when the roads got bad reminded me of how much I don't like driving in this stuff. 

[Hoosier]

After some runs where it dialed back the warmth a bit, the recent runs of the CFS have gotten warmer again for December.  Approaching the end of the month time when it's usually more reliable.

 

 

[Jonger]

It's going to be a frustrating winter for the entire subforum. Fun winter for trolls and golf weather fans.

 

I'm possibly going to tow the trailer up to the trails that start around 48N in Ontario, run the north loops. It's about as far north as Atlanta is south -- way up there.

[michsnowfreak]

It's going to be a frustrating winter for the entire subforum. Fun winter for trolls and golf weather fans.

I'm possibly going to tow the trailer up to the trails that start around 48N in Ontario, run the north loops. It's about as far north as Atlanta is south -- way up there.

I don't think you will have to go THAT far north. Sounds fun though.

I am very prepared for an up and down roller coaster winter. Think there will be plenty of fun times and plenty of frustrating times.

[chasmosnow]

If the GOA low retrogrades as expected, then you might not even need a SSW to save the day. It'd certainly help though.

 

Its not just the GOA low. Its the super charged Asian jet creating huge multiple  basin wide systems  in the Pacific.North Ameica flooded with pacific air when this occurs.and longer range models seem to have a handle on it

 

.. A strong -AO might interfere with the northern stream of the up coming split flow pattern and channel it into the US and not straight across  Canada.and then we would  have some cold air to work with.

  

  Have not read Cohen at AER yet today. Wonder if he is still optimistic about a stong SSW later this month.

 

  I hope so. Recent snow here in Madison makes me want MORE !

[Jonger]

Its not just the GOA low. Its the super charged Asian jet creating huge multiple  basin wide systems  in the Pacific.North Ameica flooded with pacific air when this occurs.and longer range models seem to have a handle on it

 

.. A strong -AO might interfere with the northern stream of the up coming split flow pattern and channel it into the US and not straight across  Canada.and then we would  have some cold air to work with.

  

  Have not read Cohen at AER yet today. Wonder if he is still optimistic about a stong SSW later this month.

 

  I hope so. Recent snow here in Madison makes me want MORE !

 

I know the cause and mechanics are different today, but December 2011 looks mighty similar. Warm Pacific air kept getting drawn into our continental air masses. Winter just took forever to get going with that setup.

 

Our cold forms over the Canadian tundra and sub tundra areas, just takes a zonal flow to cut this airflow off and contaminate our air mass with moist pacific air.

 

Once the rossby waves start tightening up and not meander as much, we should start seeing less intrusions of pacific air.

 

If any red tagger wants to confirm or dispute what I said, please do.

[chasmosnow]

I know the cause and mechanics are different today, but December 2011 looks mighty similar. Warm Pacific air kept getting drawn into our continental air masses. Winter just took forever to get going with that setup.

 

Our cold forms over the Canadian tundra and sub tundra areas, just takes a zonal flow to cut this airflow off and contaminate our air mass with moist pacific air.

 

Once the rossby waves start tightening up and not meander as much, we should start seeing less intrusions of pacific air.

 

If any red tagger wants to confirm or dispute what I said, please do.

 

   I will take what we have now over 11-12 At least now we expect to have Pacific systems in the southern stream entering CA and coming in our direction. So there is  some action just need a little cold air to go with it.

 

   I think the folks in CA have a right to be excited about this pattern.In 11-12 They had a ridge sit over them the whole winter.Pacific air came at us over the north end of that ridge.

 

 Have tried to blot out the memory of that winter!

[buckeye]

I still like to check out the old ecmwf site.  Running through the 500 maps each morning has been  entertaining this season.

 

Eventually this wacky pattern is going to yield some crazy fun for one or all of us...despite having to put up with mild temps mixed in.  HIstoric ice storm?   Blizzard raging in a sea warmth?   Bismark at 50 while Myrtle Beach gets a foot of snow?  At least it won't, (shouldn't be), boring.   

 

+8 850s almost to northern Canada.  

 

 

 

 

[DaveNay]

Eventually this wacky pattern is going to yield some crazy fun for one or all of us...despite having to put up with mild temps mixed in.  HIstoric ice storm?   Blizzard raging in a sea warmth?   Bismark at 50 while Myrtle Beach gets a foot of snow?  At least it won't, (shouldn't be), boring. 

 

I vote for a foot of wet sloppy snow like we just had, but at Disney World.

[Hoosier]

00z December 1 CanSIPS is out

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015120100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=342

[Hoosier]

Well, only about 15% of the way through meteorological winter but I want to acknowledge one aspect of my winter outlook (from October 31) that probably isn't going to work out, and that is temperatures.  I originally went +1 to +2 for DJF for Chicago, and I now think it is likely to finish warmer than that.  I do still favor the idea of more of a backloaded winter, but that's not going to happen anytime soon in terms of getting anything resembling a sustained winter pattern in the Midwest.  The magnitude of the positive temperature anomaly this month (Chicago currently >10F above average) makes the math challenging to be able to finish only a degree or two warmer than average.  Let's say the current anomaly gets chopped down to +6F by the end of the month...then just having average temperatures in Jan-Feb would make the DJF period finish at the top of my range, and 1) December finishing +6F may be optimistic and 2) I think an average Jan-Feb could be optimistic.  So bottom line, I now expect Chicago to finish greater than 2 degrees warmer than average for DJF.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Well, only about 15% of the way through meteorological winter but I want to acknowledge one aspect of my winter outlook (from October 31) that probably isn't going to work out, and that is temperatures.  I originally went +1 to +2 for DJF for Chicago, and I now think it is likely to finish warmer than that.  I do still favor the idea of more of a backloaded winter, but that's not going to happen anytime soon in terms of getting anything resembling a sustained winter pattern in the Midwest.  The magnitude of the positive temperature anomaly this month (Chicago currently >10F above average) makes the math challenging to be able to finish only a degree or two warmer than average.  Let's say the current anomaly gets chopped down to +6F by the end of the month...then just having average temperatures in Jan-Feb would make the DJF period finish at the top of my range, and 1) December finishing +6F may be optimistic and 2) I think an average Jan-Feb could be optimistic.  So bottom line, I now expect Chicago to finish greater than 2 degrees warmer than average for DJF.

Quick revisit two weeks later, and with record/near record temps with only a moderate cool down in sight; December will be extremely above average. As you mentioned above, this positive anomaly will be extremely difficult to overcome even with normal winter temps (which overall patterns dont seem real inclined to give us for any sustained period of time). 

[RCNYILWX]

Bump for the DJF numbers at ORD:

+4.9 and 16.3" of snow, 11.8" below normal. This was the 27th least snowy met winter for Chicago and least snowy since 13.8" in 2002-03. ORD "outfutilitied" 1997-98, 2011-12 and 2012-13, which is impressive.

The snowfall season numbers will be significantly skewed by the November 21-22 snowstorm. Without it, we'd likely be talking ending up as a top 10 least snowy snowfall season barring a big event the rest of this month, which doesn't seem likely at this point.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[beavis1729]

Thanks RC - great info, and agree about the Nov storm skewing the numbers.

 

Although temp departures and snowfall are a quick way to compare seasons against each other, I think this past DJF is even worse for winter lovers than the above numbers suggest.  Here are some examples for ORD...out of the 91 days in DJF:

 

- Only 4 days below zero (and barely at that), with a min temp of -4

- Only 2 days with snow depth > 2"

- Only 14 days with a low temp colder than 10 (I like to use this as a "cold night" metric)

 

Deciding between a D- or F for the grade this winter.  IMBY, where I got lucky and the Nov storm produced 14" (even though it melted after 3 days), I'll go with D-.  For most of the Chicago metro area, I'd go with F.  A normal climo winter on temps/snowfall would get a D+, unless for some reason there were a lot of snow cover days and/or some extreme cold thrown in, to bump it up into the C range.

 

For comparison...even though most say that 2013-14 and 2014-15 were great winters here, I would say they were "decent to good", not great.  1978-79 was a great winter, with 90" of snowfall and 100 consecutive days of snow cover.   In 2013-14, despite the good amount of snowfall, Dec was only moderate (half the days had no snow cover and max snow depth was only 5").  Plus, we had several thaws and no White Christmas.  But still a solid winter, with no complaints overall.  Grade B+.  In 2014-15, despite the great February, December was an absolute clunker.  Can't rate a winter too high when you lose one month.  Grade B-.

[RCNYILWX]

Thanks RC - great info, and agree about the Nov storm skewing the numbers.

Although temp departures and snowfall are a quick way to compare seasons against each other, I think this past DJF is even worse for winter lovers than the above numbers suggest. Here are some examples for ORD...out of the 91 days in DJF:

- Only 4 days below zero (and barely at that), with a min temp of -4

- Only 2 days with snow depth > 2"

- Only 14 days with a low temp colder than 10 (I like to use this as a "cold night" metric)

Deciding between a D- or F for the grade this winter. IMBY, where I got lucky and the Nov storm produced 14" (even though it melted after 3 days), I'll go with D-. For most of the Chicago metro area, I'd go with F. A normal climo winter on temps/snowfall would get a D+, unless for some reason there were a lot of snow cover days and/or some extreme cold thrown in, to bump it up into the C range.

For comparison...even though most say that 2013-14 and 2014-15 were great winters here, I would say they were "decent to good", not great. 1978-79 was a great winter, with 90" of snowfall and 100 consecutive days of snow cover. In 2013-14, despite the good amount of snowfall, Dec was only moderate (half the days had no snow cover and max snow depth was only 5"). Plus, we had several thaws and no White Christmas. But still a solid winter, with no complaints overall. Grade B+. In 2014-15, despite the great February, December was an absolute clunker. Can't rate a winter too high when you lose one month. Grade B-.

Also forgot to mention it was the 14th warmest met winter on record. Another mark of how tame it was is # of days below normal and # of days 5 degrees or colder below normal.

There were only 19 days below normal and 16 days 5 or more degrees below normal.

[Hoosier]

Going into today I needed 4.5" more snow to get into my total snowfall range for ORD (first flake to last flake for this, not just DJF), so we'll see if it happens.

 

As far as temps, went +1 to +2 for DJF, which was not warm enough.  For DJF precip, my range was -1" to +1"...actual finish at ORD was +1.17" so not far off.  Probably most satisfied about the precip aspect as many forecasts I checked fell into blanketing much or all of the region in dry conditions. 

[Hoosier]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stebo]

Goes back to my comment that it has been pretty dry around here this winter. It is nice to see there are above normal anomalies though to the west.

[csnavywx]

A spectacular failure from the contrarians who were calling for snow and cold (lolmodoki). Even with the ridiculous +5SD Kara Sea block in Jan., it still finished well above normal.

 

Really -- super Ninos are pretty damn easy to forecast for.

[Jonger]

I'm probably at ~125% of my average snow season snowfall, if we include November.

[ClicheVortex2014]

A spectacular failure from the contrarians who were calling for snow and cold (lolmodoki). Even with the ridiculous +5SD Kara Sea block in Jan., it still finished well above normal.

 

Really -- super Ninos are pretty damn easy to forecast for.

JB's trying to pretend like all is well by comparing the 500mb pattern in November and December to January and February. People roasted him on this... was pretty funny.

 

He still hasn't publicly admitted any error yet though.

[nwburbschaser]

A spectacular failure from the contrarians who were calling for snow and cold (lolmodoki). Even with the ridiculous +5SD Kara Sea block in Jan., it still finished well above normal.

 

Really -- super Ninos are pretty damn easy to forecast for.

I wonder what will happen when the next one comes around.  In hindsight this was rather textbook, but will people still try to forecast otherwise next time? 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I wonder what will happen when the next one comes around.  In hindsight this was rather textbook, but will people still try to forecast otherwise next time? 

Yes. If people found a reason to forecast a winter for 2011-12, they'll always find something to forecast a winter.

 

I'm just waiting for a west-based Nina or east-based Nino to come along. I think it'll be humorous to see what people can find to hang on.

[nwburbschaser]

Yes. If people found a reason to forecast a winter for 2011-12, they'll always find something to forecast a winter.

 

I'm just waiting for a west-based Nina or east-based Nino to come along. I think it'll be humorous to see what people can find to hang on.

This Super Nino definitely showed the bias that some people have one way or the other, and that's definitely something we can take from it. I wish he posted on here more, but HM(Anthony Masiello) is someone to listen to when it comes to objective forecasts. I know you like severe weather so if you ever get a chance, look back through this board for some of his 2013 severe weather forecasts. 

[Jonger]

Finished DJF at 31F.

 

1F less than my top 3 worst winter.... 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2011-2012. Those were all 32F.

[snowcaine]

Finished DJF at 31F.

 

1F less than my top 3 worst winter.... 1982-1983, 1997-1998 & 2011-2012. Those were all 32F.

 

Finished DJF at 29F here. Average is usually 28F, so only slightly warmer than normal.

 

Only at about 45% of average snowfall though.

[hawkeye_wx]

Wasn't it generally expected to be wet from SoCal to Texas during the super nino winter?  That area has been quite dry instead.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Wasn't it generally expected to be wet from SoCal to Texas during the super nino winter? That area has been quite dry instead.

Cal has been getting blitzed in short segments. They need a steady long term wet pattern to ease the drought, but instead they get 5-7" in two days follow by a dry spell.

[csnavywx]

Wasn't it generally expected to be wet from SoCal to Texas during the super nino winter?  That area has been quite dry instead.

Most of the rain usually falls late, but if there's an area that hasn't been as characteristic of a Super Nino, it's been the far SW US. Having said that, CA to TX is set to get blitzed over the next week or two.

 

And yes, a few folks managed to eek out above normal snowfall in Nov-Feb. -- but not many. It was the exception rather than the rule.

 

If there's any good news, it's that the trade wind anomalies haven't backed off like they did in 98 in the W/Cen Pac. This is actually good news if you're looking for a mod.-strong Nina later this year. I'm going with a moderate to borderline strong Nina atm, with the +PDO pattern looking to stick around. Also, might be looking at a strong-severe meltdown in Arctic ice this year with all of the pre-conditioning going on now. That would help instigate a more interesting winter next year.