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July 2015 temperature forecast contest


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Time to ponder the anomalies for July ... late penalties will revert to their normal pace as the month starts mid-week and is only a holiday for one of us (I think).

 

So what's needed are the predicted temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010) for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Late penalties 1% every 2 hours after 06z July 1st to 18z July 2nd, then 1% per hour.

 

 

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Time to ponder the anomalies for July ... late penalties will revert to their normal pace as the month starts mid-week and is only a holiday for one of us (I think).

 

So what's needed are the predicted temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010) for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Late penalties 1% every 2 hours after 06z July 1st to 18z July 2nd, then 1% per hour.

 

Time to ponder the anomalies for July ... late penalties will revert to their normal pace as the month starts mid-week and is only a holiday for one of us (I think).

 

So what's needed are the predicted temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010) for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Late penalties 1% every 2 hours after 06z July 1st to 18z July 2nd, then 1% per hour.

DCA:-1.2

NYC:-1.7

BOS:-2.1

ORD:-1.0

ATL:+2.2

IAH:+1.7

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Did you want +0.4 for ATL there? That's what I will assume anyway ...

 

Here's my stab in the dark ...

 

-1.0 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ___ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +719.3 (just 5.0 actually, unless the entire state catches fire)

Been really wild out in WA this summer! Crazy stuff.

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Did you want +0.4 for ATL there? That's what I will assume anyway ...

 

Here's my stab in the dark ...

 

-1.0 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ___ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +719.3 (just 5.0 actually, unless the entire state catches fire)

You are correct, Thank you.,

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Table of Forecasts July 2015

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

dmillz25 __________________ +2.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 ____ +1.5 _+2.3 _+1.7 ____ +1.5 _+2.1 _+3.5

Rjay _____________________ +2.2 _+0.9 _--0.5 ____ +0.5 _+2.5 _+2.0 ____ +2.3 _+2.5 _+2.5

Maxim ___________________ +2.0 _+0.5 _--0.8 ____ --2.5 _+1.8 _--1.0 ____ +0.6 _+2.4 _+4.5

Midlo Snow Maker _________ +1.4 _--1.0 _--2.8 ____ --3.6 _+1.8 _--0.5 ____ +2.9 _+1.4 _+5.5

Damage in Tolland _________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.4 ____ --2.9 _+1.9 _--0.5 ____ +0.5 _+1.9 _+4.5

Mallow ___________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _--0.4 ____ --1.2 _+0.8 _--0.6 ____ +1.0 _+1.8 _+3.9

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.0 _+0.6 _+0.6 ____ --1.4 _+1.5 _+0.4 ____ --2.2 _+0.3 _+4.2

wxallannj _________________ +0.7 _--0.3 _--0.7 ____ +1.4 _+2.2 _+1.4 ____ +1.7 _ +2.7 _+2.9

SD ______________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 ____ --1.0 _+1.0 _--1.0 ____ +1.5 _+1.5 _+0.5

Absolute Humidity __________ +0.5 _+0.2 _+0.3 ____ +0.2 _--0.1 _+0.6 ____ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.8

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +0.2 _+0.6 _+0.8 ____ +0.8 _+0.4 _+1.1 ____ +1.4 _+1.3 _+1.0

 

Consensus _______________ +0.2 _--0.3 _--0.7 ____ --1.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ____ +1.3 _+1.9 _+3.3

 

wxdude64 _________________+0.2 _+0.5 _--0.3 ____ --3.0 _+1.6 __ 0.0 ____ +0.2 _+0.2 _+3.6

Tom _____________________ +0.2 _--0.3 _--0.2 ____ --1.9 _+0.3 _+0.1 ____ +1.2 _+1.6 _+1.8

 

Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

BKViking ____ (-9%) ________--0.2 _--0.8 _--1.2 ____ --1.0 _+1.3 _+1.1 ____ +2.9 _+2.2 _+3.0

Stebo ____________________--0.5 _--1.0 _--1.5 ____ --1.2 _+2.3 _+1.3 ____ +3.2 _+2.5 _+2.7

Isotherm __________________--0.6 _--0.5 _--0.3 ____ --2.1 _+0.7 _+0.5 ____ --1.1 _+1.1 _+4.7

blazess556 ____ (-2%) ______ --0.7 _--1.2 _--1.6 ____ --1.0 _+2.4 _+1.5 ____ +3.3 _+2.6 _+2.9

RodneyS _________________ --0.9 _--1.0 _--0.7 ____ --5.5 _+0.8 _--1.2 ____ +0.6 _--0.7 _+4.2

ksammut __________________--1.0 _--0.4 _--1.2 ____ --1.8 _+0.4 __0.0 ____ +1.2 _+1.8 _+1.9 

Roger Smith _______________ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 ____ --2.0 _--2.0 _--1.0 ____ +1.5 _+2.0 _+5.0

Tenman Johnson ___________ --1.2 _--1.7 _--2.1 ____ --1.0 _+2.2 _+1.7

 

_______________________________________________

 

21 forecasts (20 western) means that Consensus at median is 11th ranked, or for western, mean of 10th and 11th ranked -- looks like many are expecting the roasting heat to continue in the Pac NW, more subdued heat in other parts of the west, and generally near normal elswhere although a bit on the cool side in the GL and northeast.

 

Good luck everyone!  The June scoring is complete and annual updates are posted.

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Seasonal Max Contest -- July Updates

 

THIS REPORT IS COMPLETE THROUGH END OF JULY ... UPDATES FOR AUGUST WILL BE FOUND IN THE AUGUST CONTEST THREAD.

 

This report shows the highest temperatures so far this year at each of the nine locations, which generally speaking are rather sedate for most of the locations although SEA and PHX are probably close to their annual averages. Most of the others are running quite a bit lower, so far ... any new maximum values will be reported here and the scores adjusted.

 

(DCA _ 98  and SEA _ 95) on 19th ... BOS 92 on 20th ... DEN _ 97 on 27th ...

... NYC 96 on 29th ...  IAH _ 101 on 30th ...

 

Numbers in red -- errors that can only increase

Numbers in blue -- errors that can decrease

Totals in green -- your accumulated error points to date

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Max so far ______________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 ____ 92 __ 95 __101 ____ 97 __ 115 __ 95 _____ Total error pts

 

 

Roger Smith ___________ 105 7_104 8_10210__10715_100 5_105 4 __101 4_121 6_100 5 ____ 64 (20)

blazess556 _____________103 5_101 5_ 98 6 __10311_104 9_104 3___103 6_117 2_ 97 2 ____ 49 (19)

dmillz25 _______________103 5_101 5_ 97 5 __100 8_101 6_102 1 ___101 4_117 2_ 95 0 ____ 36 (t15)

Stebo ________________ 102 4_100 4_ 97 5 __10210_102 7_103 2 ___104 7_116 1_ 96 1 ____ 41 (18)

Rjay __________________102 4 _ 98 2_ 98 6 __101 9_101 6_103 2 ___101 4_117 2_ 94 1 ____ 36 (t15)

SD ___________________ 101 3_100 4_ 96 4 __ 94 2_103 8_106 5 ___ 99 2_114 1_ 95 0  ____ 29 (11)

Mallow ________________ 101 3_ 99 3_ 96 4 __10311_102 7_103 2 ___100 3_118 3_ 97 2 ____ 38 (17)

DonSutherland.1 _________101 3_ 97 1_ 97 5 ___ 98 6_100 5_102 1 ___104 7_116 1_ 90 5____ 34 (14)

Tenman Johnson ________ 100 2_ 97 1_ 94 2 ___ 99 7_102 7_104 3___ 98 1_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 28 (t8)

Isotherm _______________100 2_ 96 0_ 96 4 ___ 98 6_100 5_103 2___105 8_118 3_ 94 1 ____ 31 (13)

 

Consensus _____________ 100 2_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_100 5_104 3___101 4_116 1_ 94 1 ____ 30 (12)

 

wxdude64 ______________ 99 1_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_ 98 3_104 3 ___104 7_115 0_ 95 0 ____ 28 (t8)

MidloSnow Maker _________99 1_ 98 2_ 97 5 ___ 98 6_ 98 3_102 1 ___101 4_114 1_ 91 4 ____ 27 (7)

ksammut _______________ 99 1_ 97 1_ 95 3 ___ 98 6_101 6_103 2 ___ 98 1_115 0_ 97 2 ____ 22 (3)

Damage in Tolland ________98 0_ 98 2_ 96 4 ___ 98 6_ 99 4_103 2 ___102 5_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 26 (6)

Maxim _________________ 98 0_ 97 1_ 97 5 ___ 99 7_100 5_102 1 ___103 6_116 1_ 91 4 ____ 30 (12)

Tom ___________________98 0_ 97 1_ 94 2 ___ 98 6_101 6_103 2 ____97 0_116 1_ 93 2 ____ 20 (1)

Absolute Humidity ________98 0_ 94 2_ 92 0 ___101 9_100 5_104 3___100 3_118 3_ 92 3 ____ 28 (t8)

BKviking ________________97 1_ 95 1_ 95 3 ___ 99 7_ 98 3_101 0____102 5_115 0_ 92 3 ____ 23 (4)

wxallannj _______________ 97 1_ 95 1_ 95 3 ___ 98 6_ 99 4_101 0____100 3_113 2_ 94 1 ____ 21 (2)

RodneyS ________________96 2_ 96 0_ 94 2 ___ 95 3_ 98 3_100 1____104 7_117 2_ 91 4 ____ 24 (5)

_____________________________________________________________________

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Anomalies and forecasts (after 7 days etc) ...

 

__________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

__ (7d) ___ --1.0 __ --0.1 __ --0.9 ___ --6.9 _ --2.9 _ --0.1 ___ --1.6 __--0.4 _ +11.0e

_ (10d) ___ +0.5 __ +0.5 __ --1.3 ___ --7.2 _ --1.2 _ +0.2 ___ --3.2 __--0.6 __ +9.2

_ (12d) ___ +0.5 __ +1.0 __ --0.3 ___ --6.2 _ --0.6 _ +0.3 ___ --2.8 __--0.5 __ +8.2

_ (14d) ___ +0.5 __ +1.1 __ --0.4 ___ --5.2 _ --0.5 _ +0.6 ___ --2.1 ___0.0 __ +7.7

 

__(p21d) __ +1.2 __ +1.5 __ --0.4 ___ --2.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.3___ --1.6 __ +0.1 __ +6.0

 

__(p31d) __ +1.2 __ +1.2 __ --0.2 ___ --1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0___ --0.5 __+0.1 __ +4.0

 

 

 

Next update on Friday 17th for 16d, p23 and p31.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

_ Continuing the anomaly tracker, and starting into a daily countdown now (previous post has days 7, 10, 12 and 14) ...

 

__ (16d) __ +0.2 __ +0.6 __ --0.9 ___ --5.5 _ --0.4 _ +0.7 ___ --2.2 __ +0.2 __ +7.1

__ (17d) __ +0.1 __ +0.4 __ --1.2 ___ --4.7 _ --0.1 _ +0.8 ___ --2.0 __ +0.1 __ +6.9

__ (18d) __ +0.2 __ +0.4 __ --1.2 ___ --4.1 _ +0.1e_+1.0 ___ --1.9 __ --0.3 __ +7.2

__ (19d) __ +0.6 __ +0.9 __ --0.9 ___ --3.8 _ +0.3e_+1.1 ___ --2.1 __ --0.7 __ +7.5

__ (20d) __ +1.1 __ +1.4 __ --0.5 ___ --3.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ --2.2 __ --0.8 __ +7.3

__ (21d) __ +1.3 __ +1.5 __ --0.4 ___ --3.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.1 ___ --2.3 __ --0.7 __ +7.0

__ (22d) __ +1.2 __ +1.5 __ --0.3 ___ --3.3 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 ___ --2.3 __ --0.6 __ +6.7

__ (23d) __ +1.2 __ +1.4 __ --0.2 ___ --3.2 _ +0.6 _ +1.2 ___ --2.0 __ --0.6 __ +6.5

__ (24d) __ +1.1 __ +1.4 __ --0.2 ___ --3.0 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ --1.9 __ --0.6 __ +6.1

__ (25d) __ +1.1 __ +1.4 __ --0.6 ___ --2.7 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ --1.7 __ --0.4 __ +5.7

__ (26d) __ +1.2 __ +1.5 __ --0.6 ___ --2.7 _ +0.8 _ +1.3 ___ --1.5 __ --0.3 __ +5.4

__ (27d) __ +1.2 __ +1.5 __ --0.5 ___ --2.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.4 ___ --1.3 __ --0.3 __ +5.1

__ (28d) __ +1.3 __ +1.8 __ --0.3 ___ --2.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ --1.4 __ --0.2 __ +5.0

__ (29d) __ +1.4 __ +2.1 __ --0.1 ___ --1.9 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ --1.6 __ --0.2 __ +5.1

__ (30d) __ +1.6 __ +2.1 __ +0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ --1.5 __ --0.2 __ +5.3

 

__ (31d) __ +1.7 __ +2.3 __ +0.5 ___ --1.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.7 ___ --1.4 __ --0.1 __ +5.5

 

Provisionals became final anomalies for all locations overnight (as of 0900h EDT),

 

It was a minor mystery how ATL went from +1.3 on 30th to +1.1 end of month after a +3 day on 31st, so I will check that number again some time. Otherwise, all scoring is now updated.

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Final scores for July 2015

   

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS ___ cla ___ ORD_ATL_IAH  ___ exp ____ TOTALS

 

DonSutherland.1 ___________ 86 _ 66 _ 98 ___ 250 ____ 94 _ 92 _ 74 ____ 260 _____ 510

Mallow ___________________ 86 _ 70 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 90 _ 94 _ 54 ____ 238 _____ 476

Rjay _____________________ 90 _ 72 _ 80 ___ 242 ____ 56 _ 72 _ 94 ____ 222 _____ 464

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 70 _ 66 _ 94 ___ 230 ____ 50 _ 86 _ 88 ____ 224 _____ 454

Damage in Tolland __________86 _ 70 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 76 _ 84 _ 56 ____ 216 _____ 454

..

Consensus ________________70 _ 48 _ 76 ___ 194 ____ 90 _ 96 _ 74 ____ 260 _____ 454

.. 

Tom _____________________ 70 _ 48 _ 86 ___ 204 ____ 96 _ 84 _ 68 ____ 248 _____ 452

wxdude64 _________________70 _ 64 _ 84 ___ 218 ____ 74 _ 90 _ 66 ____ 230 _____ 448

Maxim ____________________94 _ 64 _ 74 ___ 232 ____ 84 _ 86 _ 46 ____ 216 _____ 448

Absolute Humidity __________ 76 _ 58 _ 96 ___ 230 ____ 62 _ 76 _ 78 ____ 216 _____ 446

Isotherm __________________54 _ 44 _ 84 ___ 182 ____ 92 _ 92 _ 76 ____ 260 _____ 442

SD ______________________ 76 _ 64 _ 70 ___ 210 ____ 86 _ 98 _ 46 ____ 230 _____ 440

dmillz25 __________________ 84 _ 64 _ 70 ___ 218 ____ 36 _ 76 _100____ 212 _____ 430

..

Normal ___________________ 66 _ 54 _ 90 ___ 210 ____ 66 _ 78 _ 66 ____ 210 _____ 420

..

wxallannj _________________ 80 _ 48 _ 76 ___ 204 ____ 38 _ 78 _ 94 ____ 210 _____ 414

Stebo ____________________ 56 _ 34 _ 60 ___ 150 ____ 90 _ 76 _ 92 ____ 258 _____ 408

ksammut __________________46 _ 46 _ 66 ___ 158 ____ 98 _ 86 _ 66 ____ 250 _____ 408

BKViking __________________62 _ 38 _ 66 ___ 166 ____ 86 _ 96 _ 88 ____ 270 __ 436

____________ (-9%) ________ 56 _ 35 _ 60 ___ 151 ____ 78 _ 85 _ 80 ____ 245 _____ 396

blazess556 ________________ 52 _ 30 _ 58 ___ 140 ____ 86 _ 74 _ 96 ____ 256 __ 396

____________ (-2%) ________ 51 _ 29 _ 57 ___ 137 ____ 84 _ 73 _ 94 ____ 251 _____ 388

Tenman Johnson ___________ 42 _ 20 _ 48 ___ 110 ____ 86 _ 78 _100____ 264 _____ 374

Midlo Snow Maker __________ 94 _ 34 _ 34 ___ 162 ____ 62 _ 86 _ 56 ____ 204 _____ 366

RodneyS __________________48 _ 34 _ 76 ___ 158 ____ 24 _ 94 _ 42 ____ 160 _____ 318

Roger Smith _______________ 46 _ 24 _ 50 ___ 120 ____ 94 _ 38 _ 46 ____ 178 _____ 298

 

 

 

Final scores for western contest July 2015

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTALS

 

Isotherm __________________94 _ 76 _ 89 ______ 259

DonSutherland.1 ___________84 _ 92 _ 79 ______ 255

wxdude64 ________________ 68 _ 94 _ 67 ______ 229

RodneyS _________________ 60 _ 88 _ 79 ______ 227

Damage in Tolland _________ 62 _ 60 _ 85 ______ 207

Maxim ___________________ 60 _ 50 _ 85 ______ 195

Roger Smith ______________ 42 _ 58 _ 95 ______ 195

Mallow ___________________52 _ 62 _ 73 ______ 187

Midlo Snow Maker __________14 _ 70 _100______ 184

..

Normal ___________________72 _ 98 _ 00 ______ 170

..

Absolute Humidity __________ 58 _ 80 _ 31 ______ 169

..  

Consensus _______________ 46 _ 60 _ 61 ______ 167

.. 

dmillz25 __________________42 _ 56 _ 65 ______ 163

Tom _____________________48 _ 66 _ 31 ______ 145

ksammut _________________ 48 _ 62 _ 33 ______ 143

wxallannj _________________ 38 _ 44 _ 53 ______ 135

hudsonvalley21 ____________44 _ 72 _ 15 ______ 131

Rjay _____________________26 _ 48 _ 45 ______ 119

SD ______________________42 _ 68 _ 05 ______ 115

BKViking _________________ 14 _ 54 _ 55 __ 123

__________ (-9%) _________ 13 _ 49 _ 50 ______ 112

Stebo ___________________  08 _ 48 _ 49 ______ 105

blazess556 _______________  06 _ 46 _ 53 __ 105

___________ (-2%) _________06 _ 45 _ 52 ______ 103

 

 

 

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<<<<<< ==== (updated) ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-JULY ==== >>>>>>

 

 

... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ... provisional June scoring in post 34

 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months

 

Isotherm ____________395_419_406 __1220___474_388_502 __1364__2584
 

Damage in Tolland ____501_375_369 __1245___422_480_386 __1288__2533_ 100 000_0_1

..

Consensus __________433_329_347 __1109___498_443_482 __1423__2532

..

Tenman Johnson _____411_369_283 __1063___467_444_548 __1459__2522_ 111 013_0_1__FEB
wxdude64 ___________381_352_346 __1079___473_441_519 __1433__2512_ 000 000_0_1__JUN

DonSutherland.1 _____ 413_361_377 __1151___491_389_470 __1350__2501_ 101 001_1_1__MAR,JUL

RodneyS ___________ 412_347_325 __1084___436_478_456 __1370__2454_ 020 110

wxallannj ___________ 424_351_349 __1124___457_406_450 __1313__2437_ 001 100

Tom _______________ 387_328_335 __1050___534_396_446 __1376__2426_ 000 100

ksammut ____________352_412_431 __1195___442_300_452 __1194__2389_ 001 200_1_0

BKViking ____________371_293_344 __1008___452_469_441 __1362__2370

Absolute Humidity* ____ 384_358_406 __1148___461_329_428 __1218__2366_ 011 000_1_0
Midlo Snow Maker ____ 463_315_272 __1050___434_431_438 __1299__2349_ 300 021_2_1__APR

Mallow ______________421_340_298 __1059___422_387_460 __1269__2328_ 110 000_0_1__ JAN
Rjay ________________426_307_315 __1048___372_422_456 __1250__2298_ 121 010_0_0__MAY
blazess556 __________ 439_282_256 ___977___476_404_431 __1311__2288
Stebo _______________377_285_257 ___919___460_374_427 __1261__2180_ 100 000
..
Normal______________ 318_284_282 ___884___418_328_456 __1202__2086_ 010 101

Maxim*______________ 395_290_255 ___940___306_422_354 __1082__2022_ 100 010

SD _________________ 348_219_218 ___785___434_408_376 __1218__2003_ 000 010
Roger Smith __________237_256_356 ___849___330_372_362 __1064__1913_ 000 110

hudsonvalley21* ______ 318_266_242 ___826___351_308_414 __1073 __1899_ 000 102
N. of Pike***__________ 218_148_159 ___525 __ 196_126_140 __ 462 ___987
dmillz25***** __________154_136_092 ___382 ___ 58 _154_178 __390___ 772 _000 001

metalicwx366*****______ 70 _ 92 _ 96 ___ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 __ 204 ___462_ 001 010_0_1
mikehobbyst*****______ 101_108 _ 71 ___280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___136 ___416
Quixotic1*****_________ 76 _ 49 _ 60 ___185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 ___405
Carvers Gap****_______ 63 _ 39 _ 38 ___140 ___104 _ 60 _ 80 ___244 ___384

Weatherguy701 ******___54 _ 28 _ 29 ___111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___250 ___ 361_ 000 001_0_1
SACRUS ******________ 78 _ 36 _ 40 ___154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___162 ___ 316
H2OTown__Wx ******___ 56 _ 28 _ 20 ___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____66 ___170
hockeyinc ******________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____56 ____ 56
Uncle W ******_________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ___ 00 _ 30 _ 10 ____40 ____ 40

_______________________________________

 

* beside name, months missed (one to six)

 

Best scores (numbers) are for the six stations then for the "classic" and the "expanded" divisions, then in letter form for the months.

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