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June 22-23 Severe Weather Outbreak


Stebo

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sanilac a 20 mile long EF1. I drove the path myself today before the statement and pretty much thought the same thing as far as how strong. lots of tree damage and barns/outbuildings. Some homes took direct hits but just minor damage.

 

One thing interesting is going back to the radar and warning from last night when they called the tornado confirmed over Deckerville  it was nearly two miles south of that location. Could have been a issue had it been the other way around saying it was north or south of the town and instead it gets hit direct.

 

Kinda bummed it didn't happen earlier in the day as the areas hit in sanilac county are in fact very open for Michigan and flat and would have been good for chasing but at the same time it likely was rain wrapped so I'm not quite as disappointed as I could be for missing it.l

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How far was this tornado from the Chicago metro? It would be unimaginable what would happen if a tornado of this intensity or greater went through the Chicago metro.

 

Rochelle itself is ~70-80 miles west of the downtown area.

 

Braidwood/Coal City is about 20 miles SSW of Joliet.

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http://www.wildonions.org/Chicagoland-Map.jpg

 

You live there, you tell me. I don't think that area is considered part of it. It is much closer to Rockford if anything.

 

True, wasn't trying to start something. I just think of them as in the LOT CWA but IMO Coal City isn't really part of the metro, just like Fairdale. But that's just my take. 

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True, wasn't trying to start something. I just think of them as in the LOT CWA but IMO Coal City isn't really part of the metro, just like Fairdale. But that's just my take. 

 

Understood. Idk I kind of figured it was close enough to Joliet to count and I believe Grundy County is included in the metro statistical area.

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This brings back another point that the immediate Chicago area has really been dodging a lot of bullets recently, with some very strong tornadoes coming rather close for comfort.

 

No kidding, Change the track of the Fairdale 25 miles east and put yesterdays supercell 30 miles north and it's a whole different story

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Understood. Idk I kind of figured it was close enough to Joliet to count and I believe Grundy County is included in the metro statistical area.

I think it does count statistically, but it has a large separation from the Chicago "metro" per say. Similar distance from Joliet that Dekalb is from Geneva, and I doubt anyone would consider Dekalb as part of the metro.

More to Hoosier's point, it's only a matter of time before the true, densely populated metro gets hit. You move that storm to a starting point near Freeport, assuming a similar track, you are hitting rockford, northwest/west suburbs, then Chicago proper.

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I think it does count statistically, but it has a large separation from the Chicago "metro" per say. Similar distance from Joliet that Dekalb is from Geneva, and I doubt anyone would consider Dekalb as part of the metro.

More to Hoosier's point, it's only a matter of time before the true, densely populated metro gets hit. You move that storm to a starting point near Freeport, assuming a similar track, you are hitting rockford, northwest/west suburbs, then Chicago proper.

 

That would be the worst case scenario too, especially if it happened at night like this supercell's lifespan.

I hear often that people think the Lake and all the buildings of the more urban areas protect the more urban areas of Chicagoland from tornado development. That line of thinking is simply false.

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That would be the worst case scenario too, especially if it happened at night like this supercell's lifespan.

I hear often that people think the Lake and all the buildings of the more urban areas protect the more urban areas of Chicagoland from tornado development. That line of thinking is simply false.

There's a thought that the really urbanized areas, i.e. the city proper, may interfere with weaker ones or prevent them from forming (Fujita actually wrote about this) but that's probably about as far as that goes.
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This brings back another point that the immediate Chicago area has really been dodging a lot of bullets recently, with some very strong tornadoes coming rather close for comfort.

 

Feeling pretty fortunate in this area as well.  Yesterday's EF-2 wasn't too far southwest of the QC.  

 

The April 9th supercell fired off not too far southeast of here, and yesterday's sup only passed 15-20 miles to the north/northeast.  

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There's a thought that the really urbanized areas, i.e. the city proper, may interfere with weaker ones or prevent them from forming (Fujita actually wrote about this) but that's probably about as far as that goes.

That's interesting. You have a link to his writing on that?

I would think that a well established violent tornado doesn't care what it chews through, but would it effect reformation after the storm cycles? For instance a tornado dissipates near ohare, would the city proper prevent or impede the cycling of the storm?

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That's interesting. You have a link to his writing on that?

I would think that a well established violent tornado doesn't care what it chews through, but would it effect reformation after the storm cycles? For instance a tornado dissipates near ohare, would the city proper prevent or impede the cycling of the storm?

 

 

I'd have to look.  I just remember reading it somewhere.

 

I think Fujita said something along the lines that a big city would not be able to stop a more significant tornado...indeed, we've seen numerous examples of significant tornadoes in fairly big cities...just not Chicago recently. 

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I'd have to look. I just remember reading it somewhere.

I think Fujita said something along the lines that a big city would not be able to stop a more significant tornado...indeed, we've seen numerous examples of significant tornadoes in fairly big cities...just not Chicago recently.

Don't look too hard, but if you stumble across it.
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More on Chicagoland...

 

You could argue that not all of this highlighted area is the real metro area, but just going with this... if you look at F2-F5 tornadoes from 1950-1979, there were 53.  From 1980-2014, there were only 18, and the latter time interval has 5 extra years.  That's a huge drop.  Some of this can probably be explained by better understanding of how to rate tornadoes, but still.  And breaking it down further, 10 of the 18 tornadoes in the 1980-2014 period occurred since 2008.  Perhaps the pendulum is starting to swing back? 

 

1950-1979

 

post-14-0-63983100-1435117121_thumb.png

 

 

1980-2014

 

post-14-0-03858500-1435117135_thumb.png

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I do remember catching a segment interview of Dr. Fujita on WGN circa late 70s-early 80s where he was conducting research on Heat Islands of large cities interrupting weak circulations and limiting tornadoes in the summer months but I am not sure if he completed it or if a paper came of it. Its been 17yrs since he passed and still to this day his work is mentioned so frequently. What a pioneer in the field! I miss him.

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There's a thought that the really urbanized areas, i.e. the city proper, may interfere with weaker ones or prevent them from forming (Fujita actually wrote about this) but that's probably about as far as that goes.

 

I read something about that as well - where the lack of open ground in and around the city prevents a lot of the nasty stuff from heading right downtown...  Along with the difference in sandy soil vs. clay soil and the moisture coming out of it.  

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the south suburban corridor, from plainfield to peotone remains an impressive local hot zone

 

Yeah Grundy and Will County come to mind when thinking about recent tornado touchdowns. 

And even an area west of here from McHenry County into Kenosha County.

 

When thinking about a tornado hitting a urban core, I think of that tornado that went through downtown Atlanta several years ago.

Some truth that a weak tornado circulation would be disrupted by high rises though.

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