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Severe Threat June 23rd


IsentropicLift

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The cell that is west of here (allentown) and heading E N E that will miss here indeed is weakening. Using weathertap only shows about 50 dbz.. I be disappointed if that hit here cause it be a little rain some thunder and lightning and rain and nothing severe...

 

Keep in mind anything that comes across mountains usually hits a brick wall and the mountains tear them up.. 

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Are people throwing in the towel already?

Still lots of cloud cover here. Those storms are racing east wirh no explosive intensification. That line east of Pittsburgh looks to be the main show. On its current track that would miss us to the south.

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The cell that is west of here (allentown) and heading E N E that will miss here indeed is weakening. Using weathertap only shows about 50 dbz.. I be disappointed if that hit here cause it be a little rain some thunder and lightning and rain and nothing severe...

 

Keep in mind anything that comes across mountains usually hits a brick wall and the mountains tear them up.. 

 

That cell for my area came in pretty impressively but was nothing mind blowing. I'd estimate it as a 1 to 2 minute period of very strong winds (less than 60mph) and some heavy rain with a few flashes of lightning. Long way between here and the NYC area though so it could very well strenghten again.

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I've never seen such nonsense in my life. Oh wait yes I have, every time a storm misses someone's backyard they call bust. The pure nature of discrete convection means that it's somewhat isolated. With that being said, the parameters don't get much better than this for the northeast. 

 

Who knows, maybe that NYC split on the 4k NAM is reality, but I highly doubt that given the tremendous amount of instability and strong shear present.

 

sbcp.gif?1435083175947

 

eshr.gif?1435083313670

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Still lots of cloud cover here. Those storms are racing east wirh no explosive intensification. That line east of Pittsburgh looks to be the main show. On its current track that would miss us to the south.

If so then it's not a shocker. 99% of these events fail but I'd rather let things play out first before crying bust. 

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There are also a bunch of small cells scattered over northern PA and south central NY, they are struggling now but as the cap breaks the activity will become a little more widespread, let's wait for a little for the panic posts.

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That cell for my area came in pretty impressively but was nothing mind blowing. I'd estimate it as a 1 to 2 minute period of very strong winds (less than 60mph) and some heavy rain with a few flashes of lightning. Long way between here and the NYC area though so it could very well strenghten again.

Hence why i be disappointed lol 

Anyway that warning expired and from the looks of it that will not be reissued cause its even weaker now 

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Some people here don't understand what it means to have an EML because we hardly ever are fortunate enough to get one. Only the strongest updrafts will be able to break the CAP.

 

The current cells that look like they are having the best success busting the CAP are headed for Sussex and Warren CO.

We'll have to see what transpires with those cells and potential outflow interactions and developments.

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Everyone wants to see this massive squall line or MCS because we're use to that being our only storm mode. Our severe threat will be much longer if we only get a few discrete cells ahead of a main event later tonight.

No , personally I would like to see a severe thunderstorm period.. Not something that gets a warning for 70 MPH winds and quarter size hail and the storm arrives and its 1-2 minutes of rain a clap of thunder. Yep thats been the story all season so far and a couple of years..

 

I use to get excited when i seen SPC and a slight risk...now ..its like wake me up when its over ... it never pans out (at least across my area) 

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No , personally I would like to see a severe thunderstorm period.. Not something that gets a warning for 70 MPH winds and quarter size ail and the storm arrives and its 1-2 minutes of rain a clap of thunder. Yep thats been the story all season so far and a couple of years..

 

I use to get excited when i seen SPC and a slight risk...now ..its like wake me up when its over ... it never pans out (at least across my area) 

No offense but I wouldn't even consider your area to be part of this sub-forum. Our threats normally blow up as they come off the mountains to your East. 

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Some people here don't understand what it means to have an EML because we hardly ever are fortunate enough to get one. Only the strongest updrafts will be able to break the CAP.

We've seen what happens in the plains when the CAP finally breaks down, and it's very possible that the same could happen today. Basically all hell could be let loose given these parameters. 

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC027-037-041-PAC089-095-231930-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0056.150623T1829Z-150623T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SKYTOP TO ANALOMINK TO EAST BANGOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 75
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWTON...MONTAGUE...DOVER...HOPATCONG...EAST STROUDSBURG...
HACKETTSTOWN...WHARTON...ROCKAWAY...BLAIRSTOWN...BANGOR...MOUNT
ARLINGTON...FRANKLIN...MOUNTAIN LAKES...STANHOPE...PEN ARGYL...
HAMBURG...NETCONG...BELVIDERE...OXFORD AND OGDENSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS
QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

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