Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This is all really going to come down to mesoscale features now but just looking at how things have been evolving within the model guidance the more and more confident I become in a Pike north event.  When dealing or talking about the potential for higher end severe weather events, especially when talking about the possibility of tornadoes, one facet that we can't underestimate are height falls.  We always talk cape, instability, lapse rates, timing, etc but height falls play a very crucial role.  

 

I was hoping with such a potent s/w, which models continue to agree on the strength, that it would really dig into the mid-level riding, however, this probably won't happen.  In fact, what is being modeled now still only gets alright height falls barely making it to the MA Pike.  

 

As of now this is where I think the highest threat area is...this is where computer forecast models have been extremely consistent with a near perfect juxtaposition of extreme cape, very strong shear, and decent height falls.  

 

As for as tornado potential goes, that potential is certainly still on the table across the area I highlighted but it's difficult to go into more detail on that aspect as it's going to be more nowcast and mesoscale dependent.  However, on the GFS we can note the strongest LLJ with the more S to SW component moves through early on...the NAM holds it a bit longer.

 

threat%20area_zpsxdqzjtwc.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a feeling that I'm going to be mad at work when super cells rip across portions of the area and I can't chase.

 

This is something else which will have to be ironed out Tuesday morning...storm mode.  This is something that can be a real PITA to figure out.  

 

Come Tuesday morning one thing we really need to pay attention to are the llvl winds (direction) along with sfc wind direction.  

 

I think the potential for a potent event is on the "higher" side but it's just determining tornado threat/potential.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope you're prepared to chase, Wiz.

 

I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good.  If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday.  If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could always call out if things still look great!

I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good. If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday. If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I asked someone I work with if he could work for me Tuesday and I'll work for him Friday but it doesn't sound good. If he can then my friend is coming down from NH tomorrow night and we're going north Tuesday. If he can't work for me then it's just watch from my phoje and hope to God CT gets action

Tell them you got mauled by a feral cat, and that you're going to have to spend the day either catching it or heading to the hospital for rabies shots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z NAM is pretty concerning for a few reasons

 

1) As just mentioned it has a great degree of helicity in the lowest few km given directional shear and speed shear

 

2) With a sfc flow nearly more due south the helicity in the valleys will be further enhanced...with the NAM spitting out greater than 400 helicity...I can't imagine that being further enhanced...especially with instability parameters.  I mean it's kind of ridiculous to see the NAM sort of beef things up a bit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z NAM is pretty concerning for a few reasons

1) As just mentioned it has a great degree of helicity in the lowest few km given directional shear and speed shear

2) With a sfc flow nearly more due south the helicity in the valleys will be further enhanced...with the NAM spitting out greater than 400 helicity...I can't imagine that being further enhanced...especially with instability parameters. I mean it's kind of ridiculous to see the NAM sort of beef things up a bit

Things still look good for N NJ or too far South?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things still look good for N NJ or too far South?

 

This is actually a little weird.  Checking some point-and-click soundings on the 0z NAM across N NJ I would have expected a bit stronger cap but I'm only seeing right around 1C which is not overly strong.  The big issue is the strongest height falls are well to the north along with the best forcing but instability is extreme so with the cap not overly strong a few big cells may pop.  I don't think the TOR threat is overly high down there, however, damaging winds and some pretty large hail would be possible (golf ball potential?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at the expense of cape. no EML on this run

 

it's definitely weaker with the EML plume which has some positives and negatives I suppose.  Some positives meaning that could allow for action to develop as far south as CT and into SE NY and NJ b/c of weaker capping.  As long though as lapse rates can at least be near 6.5 C/KM that's fine I think 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is actually a little weird.  Checking some point-and-click soundings on the 0z NAM across N NJ I would have expected a bit stronger cap but I'm only seeing right around 1C which is not overly strong.  The big issue is the strongest height falls are well to the north along with the best forcing but instability is extreme so with the cap not overly strong a few big cells may pop.  I don't think the TOR threat is overly high down there, however, damaging winds and some pretty large hail would be possible (golf ball potential?)

Obviously a long way off and just one model but this looks pretty nasty 

 

NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f45.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity. 

 

The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity.

The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier.

Tight window up here after the warm fropa. The NAM barely gets the warm front to extreme SW ME by 21Z.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also have to worry about the potential for a lot of AM junk associated with any dying MCS activity. 

 

The 6z NAM has rain most of the morning before an extremely unstable/highly sheared regime sets up in the afternoon. The NAM would focus the severe weather potential in the early evening while the GFS is much earlier. 

 

Weenies standing at attention.

post-44-0-64237700-1434973650_thumb.gif

 

As strong a signal as you're going to see in the SREF around here. But as you say, and is typical in New England, standard caveats apply.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Weenies standing at attention.

attachicon.gifSREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

 

As strong a signal as you're going to see in the SREF around here. But as you say, and is typical in New England, standard caveats apply.

 

Yeah it's a pretty impressive signal. The NAM has plenty of morning junk around buut what's interesting to me is how it has much more directional shear with the 6z run than previous runs did. More backed in the boundary layer and actually veering to NW with height. Earlier runs were more unidirectional.

 

The key will be what happens with this derecho going through IA/MN this morning and how that winds up screwing things up around here tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it's a pretty impressive signal. The NAM has plenty of morning junk around buut what's interesting to me is how it has much more directional shear with the 6z run than previous runs did. More backed in the boundary layer and actually veering to NW with height. Earlier runs were more unidirectional.

 

The key will be what happens with this derecho going through IA/MN this morning and how that winds up screwing things up around here tomorrow.

 

For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops an MCS but lifts it from MI into Ontario, really leaving much of New England in the clear.

 

0-1 km shear on the latest NAM now ripping 50 knots across central NH into ME. Siggy tornadoes a possibility, even on a duck fart type spin up with those shear profiles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...