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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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Yeah the pieces are all there... Now we need them to come together. Can be tough to do.

 

 

Well you probably need to wait another day to be sure. Details like any debris or EML coverage just need more time to sort out. The wind fields regardless are impressive though.

 

Agreed...at this juncture the pieces continue to remain on the models, in some cases even becoming a bit more eye opening but now we're onto the toughest task...getting everything to align and fall in place.  This is what usually ends up killing us here...we do get the pieces but not very often do they all come together.  

 

In some instances, part of this setup looks even more impressive than 6/1/11 as far as some of the numbers go and parameters go which is quite impressive to see.  

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09z SREF pops a 60 sig-tor ingredient contour in west-central MA at 18z Tuesday.

 

What I find extremely impressive is the 50% probs of effective bulk shear...that is pretty mind blowing.  Not just bulk shear but effective.  That's some serious stuff...especially if you're looking at the possibility of >2000 J/KG of MLcape.  

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What I find extremely impressive is the 50% probs of effective bulk shear...that is pretty mind blowing.  Not just bulk shear but effective.  That's some serious stuff...especially if you're looking at the possibility of >2000 J/KG of MLcape.  

Did a write up on my website concerning the possibilities. Looks like severe weather potential for sure, over a widespread area. 

 

http://weather.st/blog/northeast-wx-watching-tuesday-623/

 

About the best I can do with the information provided by soundings and charts. then again we are looking at things via NAM perspective...

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Any word on potential BRN's?

 

A lot of shear can be too much of a good thing if you don't have the CAPE to support it. Areas closer to the Surface LP in Northern upstate NY and Northern VT/NH will likely suffer because of it--BRN's will likely be very low...

 

Areas further south will have the best chance for super-cells in my opinion. I like a swath from Albany through Central Mass up into southern VT and southern NH, where shear and CAPE levels, in combination, will be constructive to severe t-storm development and lifespan. That's just a best guess at this point obviously...

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Any word on potential BRN's?

 

A lot of shear can be too much of a good thing if you don't have the CAPE to support it. Areas closer to the Surface LP in Northern upstate NY and Northern VT/NH will likely suffer because of it--BRN's will likely be very low...

 

Areas further south will have the best chance for super-cells in my opinion. I like a swath from Albany through Central Mass up into southern VT and southern NH, where shear and CAPE levels, in combination, will be constructive to severe t-storm development and lifespan. That's just a best guess at this point obviously...

I looked at that earlier...they were running a bit low up here on the forecast soundings. The NAM was under 10 which is a sign of too much shear which is why I wasn't too concerned when Wiz said the models lost a bit of shear. We'll see...usually that's with low CAPE situations and this time around we have most spots flirting with a couple thousand joules. EHIs are pretty high.
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TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD

SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
VIGOROUS DIGGING H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF NY STATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. NOTING VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST SHOT LOOKING TO OCCUR
FROM THE INTERIOR INTERIOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA INTO N
CENTRAL AND NE CT. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERS FARTHER E
SEEING SOME SEVERE CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE S
COAST...

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Its just so rare when we get the killer setup for Tors like we have for this one. 06/01/11 was the last time. I remember how excited the mets were in the days leading up to it. This time they are equally as excited if not more so

i was thinking 6/9/53 mixed with a little 6/1/11 and 7/10/89 for analogs?

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I think of LCL component as important for swarming at smaller intensities... usually when the LCLs are low you are so heavy in moisture that it breaks earlier in the sounding.  


 


The better is mid ranged LCLs (from what I've seen..) because we've 'built up' CAPE prior to breaking through and you get those stove pipe jobs.  When I see this, 


 


post-904-0-69100100-1434929179_thumb.jpg


 


...like so many other violent tor of lore, they are not always garland by the collar of tree top kissing mesos... 


 


Some are though, sure.  That big Oklahoma one of 1999 appeared to either be enveloped in a meso that came all the way down, or one helluva spectacular debris ball!!  


 


Re the set up, I'm too lazy to delete and paste over my thoughts n this.  I'll just paraphrase:


 


Watch for pre-frontal heat/trough, not uncommon in this sort of set up. Those will tend to back the wind westerlies over western zones (killing their 0-3 km shear), while veering more S over central eastern areas. Storms could fire premature to best deep layer mechanics arriving, exploiting CAPE ...and then altogether it acts like a 'dry line' and whisks early thunderstorms and the best theta-e right on out to sea.  


 


Not sure what makes that set up more likely over others, but back in 2011 and 1987 ... etc, the best events from my experience around SNE is always morning convection associated with warm front or diffuse warm front, then searing sun in broiling sweat pushing humidity wafts in right before big discrete right movers/MCS sets up in central and eastern NY and roar(s) down the Mohawk Trail ... 

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If you notice with a lot of the more notable late spring/summer SNE threats, the day before often targets MI as tomorrow will. This is a more classic setup for getting a decent lapse rate plume east.

 

Exactly... there is a known 24 lag correlation between Michigan and New England... Not every time of course,  but significant nonetheless... 

 

Flint_Tornado_1953.jpg

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Youre on vaca so I'll assume you haven't looked at anything . Mets are very concerned and excited if you hadn't been following

I've looked and seen posts from mets. Calm down. It looks good on paper for sure.

Classic outbreaks also featured warm from tstms on leading edge of EML.

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If you notice with a lot of the more notable late spring/summer SNE threats, the day before often targets MI as tomorrow will. This is a more classic setup for getting a decent lapse rate plume east.

 

This was my immediate thought yesterday morning when I saw the SPC outlook for Monday's "Enhanced" across Michigan.   Our best events often smoke Michigan the day before.....see: Flint, Michigan tornado. 

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