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2015 Tropical Season Thread


CT Valley Snowman

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Definitely better structure, but still a small hurricane in terms of overall size. Makes it easier for the storm to attain Cat 3 if bursts of convection continue. Still thinking shear down the road will hamper a bit, depending on direction of storm overall during the next 12-24 hours.

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It actually looks more like the eye is degrading than tightening, it should weaken if anything.

Wrong lol

 

Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   UPDATE  
000WTNT64 KNHC 211747TCUAT4HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJORHURRICANE...Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dannyis now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WindScale.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)with higher gusts.No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving intoan area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend isexpected to begin later today.  Consequently, no adjustment to theforecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.3N 48.6WABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES$$Forecaster Beven/Roberts
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"Wrong lol"
 
Really dude?
 
 

Wrong lol
 
Hurricane DANNY Update Statement Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   UPDATE  
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

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Someone said that yesterday.

With the forecasted amount of shear H.D. will more than likely evolve into an open wave and dissipate into the books..  

 

It'll get sheared to hell over the next couple days. But a nice looking fish storm at the moment.

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I find it pretty comical that people are continuing to say that it's weakening yet they had to issue a special advisory not even three hours later to indicate it had strengthened. 

 

The comment you replied to was about the eye wall shrinking within the last 45 minutes. So how does an upgrade that was based on flight recon data from 45 minutes ago prove that the comment was wrong?

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It'll get sheared to hell over the next couple days. But a nice looking fish storm at the moment.

That's heavily reliant on a more Southerly/Westerly track. I am not convinced at that. 

 

The spaghetti models continue to track North and we now have a Northerly camp which didn't exist yesterday.

 

Also, the shear continues to lessen. Assuming the NW heading continues, it should survive the trip.

 

In my humble opinion, the forecasts for dissipation were based on a much weaker system than currently exists. 

 

wg8sht.GIF

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That's heavily reliant on a more Southerly/Westerly track. I am not convinced at that. 

 

The spaghetti models continue to track North and we now have a Northerly camp which didn't exist yesterday.

 

Also, the shear continues to lessen. Assuming the NW heading continues, it should survive the trip.

 

In my humble opinion, the forecasts for dissipation were based on a much weaker system than currently exists. 

 

 

 

 

I didn't say it would "not surivive"....just that it would get sheared to hell...I'm sure it will remain a TC. But it will just be a lot weaker and uglier looking than it currently is.

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I didn't say it would "not surivive"....just that it would get sheared to hell...I'm sure it will remain a TC. But it will just be a lot weaker and uglier looking than it currently is.

The globals certainly aren't filled with rainbows regarding its future, but if the system can skate by to the North of the islands I think it ends up being quite a threat to at least the Bahamas.

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I have no idea whether it will be right or wrong. But you are talking about something that has started occurring after the data was obtained that was the basis of the cat 3 upgrade.

My question about the possible pinhole eye was answered by Superstorm; radar doesn't support it. Therefore I was wrong about that. 

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I was talking about from here on out, you misrepresented the deteriorating eyewall as a start for RI on the loop you posted, but it wasn't (I wasn't referring to current strength) Anyways, as a general rule a eyewall filling in isn't a good thing, this could go on to become the strongest hurricane on record and that wouldn't change.

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I was talking about from here on out, you misrepresented the deteriorating eyewall as a start for RI on the loop you posted, but it wasn't (I wasn't referring to current strength) Anyways, as a general rule a eyewall filling in isn't a good thing, this could go on to become the strongest hurricane on record and that wouldn't change.

Technically we might be talking about two different things right now. Either eye-wall filling or eyewall replacement. Either way a slight dip in strength could be the result followed by some RI. Given the position on the shear located to the north and west of the storm, it if very likely the eyewall filling in could most likely be a result of shear and not replacement, giving way to the idea of weakening. If so, that's jut physics for you. There is no real argument here in favor of one or the other until time has passed.

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