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Tropical Storm Bill


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Initial advisory at 50 mph later tonight? 

 

 

 

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152350
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$
Forecaster Brennan
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I wish they would just initiate the stupid advisories already. I'm not looking forward to having to explain the sudden Tropical Storm Warnings later tonight. Obviously it means little from a forecast perspective but it's still going to freak some folks out regardless. 

 

you and I imagine every single TV station along the coast from Houston to Corpus is in agreement there... would HATE to be mets working at 10 having to plot TS warnings out of nowhere... although from what I've seen in the prepardness side, I don't think we'll have the freakout that we normally would because especially in Houston it appears they've decided to prepare as if it already was a TS

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Pressure already down to 1001.3mb per recon. 

 

At this point it would probably be a good idea for the NHC to initiate advisories on a 50 mph/1001mb Tropical Storm just so the Texas coast is prepared. 

Agreed, needs to be declared asap.

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Recon already heading back? 

 

I'm only a student meteorologist, but this doesn't look like the most thorough mission ever.I guess resources are limited in mid-June. 

 

Feel bad for whoever has the 11pm shift, because they'll be the ones who have to decide whether or not to pull the trigger on a 45 knot initial advisory and have to hoist TS warnings and watches, 

 

60405151c29c647bd2109941f2c0ca6c.jpg

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Closed low, 1001mb and 50kt 970mb winds.. Bill should come shortly. 

 

at this rate they'll hoist the warnings after it's inland.

 

had another feeder band come through 45min ago.  looks like a break in the action for most of the metro for a while.  hobby still only sitting at 0.08" on the day.

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tropical storm warning issued for harris county (houston).  current hgx forecast here on south side of houston calls for 15-20mph winds tomorrow with gusts to 25mph.  it wouldn't surprise me to see that upped a bit tonight.

 

nhc forecast takes bill to 50kts before landfall near the north end of matagorda bay around mid-morning tomorrow.

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Shear has continued to abate...it's now near or below 10kts, according to CIMSS. There's not much time to get it's act together, but this suggests continued and gradual strengthening. Also, it appears Bill has slowed down, and it will probably take at least 12 hours to landfall.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 11:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 10:57:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 95°51'W (28.15N 95.85W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 58kts (From the ESE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 10:53:30Z

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Recon finds that Bill is still 50kts and it's moving a bit to the left of the forecast, at least in the short term. Radar shows that it's not strengthening, and in fact, structure may be a bit worse than a few hours prior, as there's little in the way of eyewall formation. This is confirmed by satellite trends, with a more disorganized convection structure, although stronger in the band like feature to the south. CIMSS imagery shows that shear is rather low (<10kts), but convection structure shows that the western half of Bill is struggling, probably from mid level shear in the NW quad entraining dry air.

 

All in all, I expect little change in strength prior to landfall in the next few hours, close or a bit south of Matagorda Bay.

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TROPICAL STORM BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL0220151155 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015...BILL MAKES LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND...The center of Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on MatagordaIsland, Texas at 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC.During the past hour, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was reported atboth Palacios, Texas and Port O'Connor, Texas. At 1130 AM CDT, thewater level at Port Lavaca, Texas, was about 3 feet above normal.

 

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A rather sharp turn poleward appear to have started. The current weak trough to it's west it's imparting westerly shear and entraining dry air on it's western semicircle. This same trough is weakening the ridge that's steering Bill and will allow to start the baroclinic process the models have been forecasting in a day or two after it moves to a more favorable position to the NE of the cyclone.

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