Summer 2015 pattern discussion

[jshetley]

The 12z GFS goes the other way with temps. Fairly widespread 100's are back on it and within 7 days too.

[Cold Rain]

The 12z GFS goes the other way with temps. Fairly widespread 100's are back on it and within 7 days too.

 

I think the hot and dry route is definitely shaping up as the direction to lean until proven wrong.  We're starting to see this show up more and more and start to make inroads into reality.  Attempts to back off the heat and bring more rain are quickly reversing and are appearing less frequently of late.  We'll see, but if we truly start baking under a ridge, it may well feed back on itself and prove to be a difficult pattern to dislodge this summer.

[GaWx]

^{Looking at the hottest highs at KATL for 2nd year strong to superstrong Nino's as well as standalone superstrong Nino's (1877 N/A):}

 

^{1997: 95}

^{1987: 98 (four 97+'s all in July)}

^{1982: 94}

^{1972: 94}

^{1940: 98 (two 97's+'s in July)}

^{1905: 93}

^{1896: 97 (one 97+ in Sep.)}

^{1888: 96}

 

^{So, at KATL, overall, it hasn't been too bad vs. how bad it could be though 1987, 1940, and late summer of 1896 were hotter than normal.}

[NRVwxfan.]

^{Looking at the hottest highs at KATL for 2nd year strong to superstrong Nino's as well as standalone superstrong Nino's (1877 N/A):}

 

^{1997: 95}

^{1987: 98 (four 97+'s all in July)}

^{1982: 94}

^{1972: 94}

^{1940: 98 (two 97's+'s in July)}

^{1905: 93}

^{1896: 97 (one 97+ in Sep.)}

^{1888: 96}

 

^{So, at KATL, overall, it hasn't been too bad vs. how bad it could be though 1987, 1940, and late summer of 1896.}

How was the precipitation during those Strong/superstrong Nino summers. Seems like it shouldn't be this dry, but i may be wrong too.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking at the Global model data...

 

This morning's Euro really sets in the heat wave on Sunday and it lasts the entire week. The hottest temps (approaching 100) in the Carolinas are lined up in those traditional I-95/Coastal Plain locations (Greenville, Fayetteville, Florence, Orangeburg).

 

GFS...and most recently the 12z run has the hottest temps on Sun-Tues afternoons in the Carolina Foothills and I-85 but then something slides in the back door on Wednesday shifting the winds easterly across most of North Carolina...

 

Like I said the other day, I don't trust the GFS and there's nothing out there that will change my mind in the near future.

 

Given that the Euro does have something, we're likely to have a couple really hot days but I'm still not totally sold on something over a really long period of time.

[GaWx]

How was the precipitation during those Strong/superstrong Nino summers. Seems like it shouldn't be this dry, but i may be wrong too.

 

 June/July have overall averaged near normal in your area though Augusts have tended to be dry except for the very wet 1940, which was due to a very atypical hurricane that landfalled in GA/SC and crawled once inland, and 1905, which was a little wetter than normal.

 The only dry June I could find was 1905. Then July/Aug were wetter than normal.

 

 Based on these analogs, if you're dry as of 7/31, you may need a slow moving tropical system in Aug/Sep like what happened in 1940 to prevent dryness lasting through October. Obviously, that wouldn't be a good thing to wish for since it would likely also cause massive flooding and who knows what destruction along the coast.

[NRVwxfan.]

 June/July have overall averaged near normal in your area though Augusts have tended to be dry except for the very wet 1940, which was due to a very atypical hurricane that landfalled in GA/SC and crawled once inland, and 1905, which was a little wetter than normal.

 The only dry June I could find was 1905. Then July/Aug were wetter than normal.

 

 Based on these analogs, if you're dry as of 7/31, you may need a slow moving tropical system in Aug/Sep like what happened in 1940 to prevent dryness lasting through October. Obviously, that wouldn't be a good thing to wish for since it would likely also cause massive flooding.

Thank for the prompt research and response. I obviously am not gonna depend on the tropics as its been quite a long time since we have gotten a decent tropical system. Sounds like this could be a very atypical nino summer unless late June/July produces. I hate it when drought sets in, and im afraid this year could be a bad one.

[mackerel_sky]

Apparently , if we hit 96 next week, which looks very plausible, it will be our hottest temp at GSP , since July of 2012! Didnt realize it's been that long for mid 90s!? I'm glad though, I love 95-100s and zero rain!

[Cold Rain]

Quoted from the Banter thread because it's a good discussion:

 

 

 

There's is certainly no drought up in the mountains and should not be anytime soon. That fact will help keep the larger rivers around here from falling too much, so a very serious drought isn't in the cards through the summer. The heat will be the bigger story, especially if the big ridge settles right over us for any length of time.

 

Indeed, the 0z GFS shows the ridge over us with the 20C 850 bubble over NC/SC through about 180 hours, with isolated/scattered shower/storm chances during parts of the period.  Then, it develops a weakness and troughing over the SE and goes bonkers with rain chances through the end of the run.  I would categorically dismiss that as a likely outcome at this point, as we've seen the GFS do that several times already, with no luck.  The Euro pretty much keeps the SE hot and dry through 240, with no widespread rain chances.  That's the most likely outcome, IMO.

[mackerel_sky]

Quoted from the Banter thread because it's a good discussion:

Indeed, the 0z GFS shows the ridge over us with the 20C 850 bubble over NC/SC through about 180 hours, with isolated/scattered shower/storm chances during parts of the period. Then, it develops a weakness and troughing over the SE and goes bonkers with rain chances through the end of the run. I would categorically dismiss that as a likely outcome at this point, as we've seen the GFS do that several times already, with no luck. The Euro pretty much keeps the SE hot and dry through 240, with no widespread rain chances. That's the most likely outcome, IMO.

I respectfully disagree! Euro sucks! GFS is lesser of two worsts, IMO

[Cold Rain]

I respectfully disagree! Euro sucks! GFS is lesser of two worsts, IMO

 

You're just mad at the Euro because you saw all those pretty Weatherbell snowfall maps that didn't pan out!  Maybe the Nagvem is where it's at now?

[Brick Tamland]

I knew we have had a lot fewer storms this year than usual. And now RAH might have an explanation as to why.

 

Recent research has identified a link between the phase of the El Niсo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the amount of severe weather across parts of the U.S. This graphic shows how our area compares. For reference, we are currently in a weak El Niсo and have only issued 54 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings so far this year--our second lowest total since 2000!

 

[downeastnc]

I knew we have had a lot fewer storms this year than usual. And now RAH might have an explanation as to why.

 

Recent research has identified a link between the phase of the El Niсo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the amount of severe weather across parts of the U.S. This graphic shows how our area compares. For reference, we are currently in a weak El Niсo and have only issued 54 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings so far this year--our second lowest total since 2000!

 

 

Yeah that's pretty much par for the course going into EL Nino's I guess, but nationally overall May 2015 had 412 reported tornados this is the highest number reported in May in quite some time, the current 3 yr average for May is 173 so well over double the recent trend for May.

[Hvward]

I knew we have had a lot fewer storms this year than usual. And now RAH might have an explanation as to why.

Recent research has identified a link between the phase of the El Niсo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the amount of severe weather across parts of the U.S. This graphic shows how our area compares. For reference, we are currently in a weak El Niсo and have only issued 54 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings so far this year--our second lowest total since 2000!

El Nico, What he phase like?

[NRVwxfan.]

Quoted from the Banter thread because it's a good discussion:

 

 

 

 

Indeed, the 0z GFS shows the ridge over us with the 20C 850 bubble over NC/SC through about 180 hours, with isolated/scattered shower/storm chances during parts of the period.  Then, it develops a weakness and troughing over the SE and goes bonkers with rain chances through the end of the run.  I would categorically dismiss that as a likely outcome at this point, as we've seen the GFS do that several times already, with no luck.  The Euro pretty much keeps the SE hot and dry through 240, with no widespread rain chances.  That's the most likely outcome, IMO.

What makes you think the 240 Euro is gonna be right? The models were crap all last winter.

[Cold Rain]

What makes you think the 240 Euro is gonna be right? The models were crap all last winter.

I didn't say the Euro at 240 is going to be right. I said the model was showing a hot pattern through 240, the end of its run. My "feeling" is that ridging over the SE is going to be the dominant pattern for a while.

[No snow for you]

I didn't say the Euro at 240 is going to be right. I said the model was showing a hot pattern through 240, the end of its run. My "feeling" is that ridging over the SE is going to be the dominant pattern for a while.

I don't like the sound of that but I would agree with your statement. 

[downeastnc]

System forming off Yucatan is gonna be a game changer to this pattern if it plays out like the latest CMC run......basically has it coming ashore in TX as a strong TS maybe weak cane....then it has a high building in from Canada that squashes the ridge and sends the rems of the TC east right over the upstates of GA/SC and into NC with lots of rain and storms...GFS is similar but the low rides much further north and turns east over the mid atlantic....both models break the heat by the end of the run and both have several cooler days mixed in mid week and beyond but the CMC is much cooler since it takes the low right over us versus the GFS which warms up some with the TS rems to our north.

 

NHC bumped the low from 30% to 50% in 5 days on the afternoon update and all the major globals have it......

[NRVwxfan.]

I didn't say the Euro at 240 is going to be right. I said the model was showing a hot pattern through 240, the end of its run. My "feeling" is that ridging over the SE is going to be the dominant pattern for a while.

I don't necessarily agree with your argument. Never ever go with one model only, and ignore the others. Also, the Euro has a pretty bad track record with temperatures.

[Cold Rain]

I don't necessarily agree with your argument. Never ever go with one model only, and ignore the others. Also, the Euro has a pretty bad track record with temperatures.

I have watched the GFS try to create troughing in the SE in the LR and then go back to the ridging idea. That plus the Euro is what made my confidence higher around the hotter scenario. But you may be right. I hope you are. I would like to see a quick breakdown of the heat and a wetter pattern setting up. I haven't looked at any models today, so they all may show that now, for all I know.

[jshetley]

The 18z GFS says we stay at least in the middle 90's  or above right through day 10 at least in upstate SC. Then we get a 2 day break then right back above 95 right through the end of the run. The Euro looks hot too right through day 10. The 18z GFS is dry too over parts of northwest SC, with less the .30 total right through day 16. At this pace, we will top both 2007 and 1993 as far as temps go unless of course things change in July and August. 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

The 18z GFS says we stay at least in the middle 90's  or above right through day 10 at least in upstate SC. Then we get a 2 day break then right back above 95 right through the end of the run. The Euro looks hot too right through day 10. The 18z GFS is dry too over parts of northwest SC, with less the .30 total right through day 16. At this pace, we will top both 2007 and 1993 as far as temps go unless of course things change in July and August. 

Very scary that it is only Mid June and we are already having this kind of a heat wave. As bad as our summers can be, I have never seen mid 90s for 3 straight months so the pattern will have to break sometime. Hopefully we get a change by July 4th - historically the start of our hottest time of year. Maybe we'll get the worst pattern out of the way before mid July -August.  TWC now shows city forecasts up to 15 days out. For the upstate they have low to mid 90s the entire 15 days with lows in the low 70s. Aren't they GFS heavy? That would agree with your post.  

[jshetley]

It looks like the Euro moves the ridge to Texas and the 4 corners after day 5, potentially putting much of the southeast in the MCS track and cooling us off a little. The 12z GFS says it stays hot and dry right through day 16 at least in NW South Carolina. Hopefully the Euro is on to something.

[FallsLake]

First look at the GFS in a couple of days (busy weekend) and it looks like the heat wave may get knock back after this week.

 

This time of year, precipitation is usually the way we get cool(er). Here is the 6z GFS at day 7 depicting 60 hour precip amounts:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150615+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Edit: I take that back. Looks like a couple of days cooler(relevant of course) and then it's back to this at hour 180 (hopefully it's short lived):

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Cold Rain]

Falls, the Euro kicks a quick trough through the area and then rebuilds a 594dm ridge over the southern tier by the end of the run.

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like TX is to summer rain as Boston was to snow last winter! Shetley summer redux, FTL !

[FallsLake]

Falls, the Euro kicks a quick trough through the area and then rebuilds a 594dm ridge over the southern tier by the end of the run.

f240.gif

Looks like we need to buckle in for the long haul. This could end up like some of the summers I remember as a kid. I wonder if Larry has anything about hot summers and the following winters... ha ha

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Looks like we need to buckle in for the long haul. This could end up like some of the summers I remember as a kid. I wonder if Larry has anything about hot summers and the following winters... ha ha

Nothing can ever top the Summer of 2010 I don't believe. I think Atlanta had like 90 days of 90+ that summer. And the humidity was just terrible.

[Met1985]

Falls, the Euro kicks a quick trough through the area and then rebuilds a 594dm ridge over the southern tier by the end of the run.

f240.gif

meh let's roast. It's summer. We have been lucky the past couple of summers.

[BullCityWx]

Looks like we need to buckle in for the long haul. This could end up like some of the summers I remember as a kid. I wonder if Larry has anything about hot summers and the following winters... ha ha

 

At least for CLT, the 6 hottest summers are as follows: 

93-94

2010-2011

86-87

87-88

43-44

1881-1882

Only one of those were not great winters(43-44).