FallsLake Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 12 GFS continues to show no signs of any heat wave effecting the SE during the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 4, 2015 Share Posted June 4, 2015 First week of June and no heat advisories anywhere in the USA. Definitely the way to start summer. Edit: Stupid picture didn't load right. But just imagine a map of the USE with not NWS heat warnings... 6-4-2015 4-18-01 PM.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Latest GFS is the hottest one I have seen all year, basically 90+ heat for a week straight starting next Tues with some days well into the 90's, nothing earth shattering or record breaking just a sustained 7 day period of heat, its also pretty different from the runs before today so we will see if the models hold on to it .....I am skeptical though given the over all setup and the amount of wet ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 6/9 - 6/11 TUE-WED-THU: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK GIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT OR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE FRONT BEYOND TUESDAY...AS IT WILL EITHER STALL OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY RAINY PERIOD...OR PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THE GFS SUPPORTS THE FORMER WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES THE LATTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Just looked at the 6z GFS and it continues to show a nice pattern for the extended. In fact you really couldn't ask for a better look at day 12 for the mid/late part of June: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150606+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 6, 2015 Share Posted June 6, 2015 Looking at the afternoon model data that is rolling in... The GFS keeps wanting to pump some serious moisture content to pretty much anyone east of the Mississippi River starting this upcoming week...The worst of it looks to be aiming for the Western Gulf Coast Region but it all eventually slides eastward...and even for us ahead of the biggest moisture plume, we're looking at water values that would be more than sufficient. With a general weakness located across the region, it should give a lot of places an opportunity to at least hold serve on rainfall, compared to climatological averages for early/mid June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Really? That's WRONG. WRONG is your avatar sir Wrong? its freaking hilarious. I know right?! What's really funny is Jshetly is arguing with one of the best Mets on the entire board. Agree In other news.....it might rain later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Pattern must sure suck for the discussion thread to be turning into the banter thread XD Can we get a hurricane in here to spice things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Don't want to go on Jonesville on y'all , but we've seen alot of wet patterns showing up 5-7 days out, only to get drier as we get closer to the " event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Looking at the afternoon model data that is rolling in... The GFS keeps wanting to pump some serious moisture content to pretty much anyone east of the Mississippi River starting this upcoming week... The worst of it looks to be aiming for the Western Gulf Coast Region but it all eventually slides eastward...and even for us ahead of the biggest moisture plume, we're looking at water values that would be more than sufficient. With a general weakness located across the region, it should give a lot of places an opportunity to at least hold serve on rainfall, compared to climatological averages for early/mid June... 144PWAT.png 168 PWAT.png 192PWAT.png 240PWAT.png That all sounds good, but today's 06z GFS spits out a whopping 0.12" for KJNX over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Anyone else confused by this paragraph ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Anyone else confused by this paragraph ? Not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Anyone else confused by this paragraph ? Nope Congrats Ohio valley.... sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 12z GFS is no better through 180. Big ridge develops over the SE. Looks like another 2 weeks with no rain. 1993 redux on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Not me.It says "start of a convectively active period" but then stated all of energy heads to the OH valley and that slight chance of precip, S of 85 , may be too high!? What's less than slight? 0?But , convectively active?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 12z GFS is no better through 180. Big ridge develops over the SE. Looks like another 2 weeks with no rain. 1993 redux on the way!It's going to be convectively active, at the beginning of the week, then the '93 redux kicks in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 It says "start of a convectively active period" but then stated all of energy heads to the OH valley and that slight chance of precip, S of 85 , may be too high!? What's less than slight? 0? But , convectively active?? They don't just discuss the weather at your house. Active in the Ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 At least I got my 0.03" overnight. 0.37" for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 WxSouth had a long post on facebook about the potential for storms tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has an outlook for today with strong storms possibly developing and organizing ahead of a moderately strong cold front for June, near the Ohio River, and pushing east, southeast tonight. So far, the graphic doesn't include much of the Southern Apps, foothills region of VA, western Carolinas, north GA where I think there's a decent potential for this line to develop more strongly than indicated so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 What's really funny is Jshetly is arguing with one of the best Mets on the entire board. I highly doubt that, but I do hate seeing facts ignored, misinterpreted, or distorted. I guess it's a pet peeve of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 I highly doubt that, but I do hate seeing facts ignored, misinterpreted, or distorted. I guess it's a pet peeve of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Hush, this is a weather thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Hush, this is a weather thread. You're right. Since it is averaging only one post per hour, I thought I would take a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Well I guess it's time to get hot. Day 7 of the 12z GFS: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 What's really funny is Jshetly is arguing with one of the best Mets on the entire board.Did Wxsouth make a post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Did Wxsouth make a post? He posts on facebook every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Well I guess it's time to get hot. Day 7 of the 12z GFS: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false I do not like the looks of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 ^ jshetley ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 I bet Shetley ends up closer to right than not by the time August is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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