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GaWx

Summer 2015 pattern discussion

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They have it right west of Greenville, down towards Greenwood, but I can not see why they still have 50% pops anywhere near Hickory or Statesville or even Charlotte tonight. It's obvious those areas stay dry. The cool and dry air over these areas means it will not be raining up there. I'd even be surprised to see any of that big shield of rain and storms make it past I-26 in NC or SC. There MAY be 1 more chance for rain tomorrow for a few spots, but downsloping means most will stay dry. Then the rain chances go to 0 where i am for a couple of days and dont get much better right through day 7. It will take a tropical storm or hurricane for my location to get more than .25 of rain in any 24 hour period this summer that's for sure.

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No way to say this any other way, GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going.

Good thing GSP doesn't ever listen to you.

 

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They have it right west of Greenville, down towards Greenwood, but I can not see why they still have 50% pops anywhere near Hickory or Statesville or even Charlotte tonight. It's obvious those areas stay dry. The cool and dry air over these areas means it will not be raining up there. I'd even be surprised to see any of that big shield of rain and storms make it past I-26 in NC or SC. There MAY be 1 more chance for rain tomorrow for a few spots, but downsloping means most will stay dry. Then the rain chances go to 0 where i am for a couple of days and dont get much better right through day 7. It will take a tropical storm or hurricane for my location to get more than .25 of rain in any 24 hour period this summer that's for sure.

 

:violin:  :violin:  :violin:

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Greenwood SC area getting pummeled with heavy rain Doppler showing some 6-8" pixels popping up.....I predict jshetley gets more than .25" tonight easily

You know it doesn't rain there. Stop playing!

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That shield is still 10 miles from me and slowly weakening now. There's not much rain at all in the county i live in yet.

 

Its not going to weaken much, there is a bit of a mesolow slowly drifting east centered right about over Honea Path right now, the question isn't if its gonna rain where you are, its how much are you gonna get....I thinking your good for at least .50-1"

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Its not going to weaken much, there is a bit of a mesolow slowly drifting east centered right about over Honea Path right now, the question isn't if its gonna rain where you are, its how much are you gonna get....I thinking your good for at least .50-1"

You think its gonna make it to 77 in SC? Just curious.

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You think its gonna make it to 77 in SC? Just curious.

 

Looks like storms firing south of you now, so you will get some rain it looks like but it might not be a lot, as for the complex to the west its tough to say its not moving fast at all....there will be some crazy high totals by the time its all said and done though from Anderson over to Greenwood and then on towards Columbia. If I had to guess it will mostly stay west of you but if it can keep firing new storms it might not matter and you will still get hammered.

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That shield has hit a brick wall and is not coming where I am. I'm getting sprinkles. It's weakening and getting smaller on every new scan. We wont even get the roads wet here tonight.  

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Looks like storms firing south of you now, so you will get some rain it looks like but it might not be a lot, as for the complex to the west its tough to say its not moving fast at all....there will be some crazy high totals by the time its all said and done though from Anderson over to Greenwood and then on towards Columbia. If I had to guess it will mostly stay west of you but if it can keep firing new storms it might not matter and you will still get hammered.

Dangit, not the news i wanted to hear.  :axe:

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We just can not get good rain here. That shield is not making progress in here and is falling apart. It will definitely take a hurricane or tropical storm for this location to get good rain. Nothing else can do it. And even that might not give us much rain with the way things are going.  

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It's been a steady to heavy rain at my house for 5+ hours! The curse is broken! The meso low is just spinning and raining itself out, right over my back yard! Plus a few house shaking rumbles of thunder! :)

Edit: still raining at 3:30am, best rain event of the year! Looks like the whole ULL came out of the mountains and parked over Isohomey headquarters at the airport!

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While jshetley dies in misery of rainfall being within a stone's throw of Jonesville...you have to admit that the globals are clearly trending to an active first half of June across the Southeast.

 

The GFS is keeping a pretty good weakness aloft over the Southeast over the next 7-10 days. Also by early next week there are signs of some NW Caribbean activity lifting up into the Gulf of Mexico and at the very least providing some moisture content enhancement for the region...

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While jshetley dies in misery of rainfall being within a stone's throw of Jonesville...you have to admit that the globals are clearly trending to an active first half of June across the Southeast.

 

The GFS is keeping a pretty good weakness aloft over the Southeast over the next 7-10 days. Also by early next week there are signs of some NW Caribbean activity lifting up into the Gulf of Mexico and at the very least providing some moisture content enhancement for the region...

I definitely like what the models are showing. No excessive heat and chances of rain. As I stated yesterday, (so far) this looks like a repeat of last year.

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I'd look for the chances of precip to drop to 20% tomorrow west of I-77 and on down to 0% Thursday and Friday. That upper low is moving east faster and farther than it was supposed to.

 

Wrong. 

 

The chances will be cut back though. You do not get many storms with 55 degree dewpoints and that's the kind of air coming into NC now. There will be 1 or 2 storms at best over the GSP, HKY, AVL, and ATL areas tomorrow. Should be more east of I-77. Dont let the 60% chance gsp has for it's cwa fool you. That wont verify tomorrow.

 

Wrong. 

 

Yeah you still have a decent chance tomorrow I think. Most other areas west of you will get downsloped and thus much drier. Yep I just looked at the radar and you do have a big storm over you. Congrats.

 

Wrong. 

 

That low is going to be too far east after tonight though. There will be small chances tomorrow and the zero after that until Sunday. The upper low needs to go south instead of east to keep the wet pattern some folks are seeing going.

 

Wrong.

 

It needs to be about 50-100 miles to the west though. The best moisture is east of here.

 

Wrong.

 

It's great for Raleigh of course, but not so good for us in the west. If it went south by 100-200 miles, both of us would be in a good spot.

 

Wrong.

 

They have not changed tomorrow's forecast yet but they will. This so called wet pattern is over until further notice.

 

Wrong.

 

No way to say this any other way,  GSP has busted today in upstate SC bigtime. There is not 1 storm anywhere in the the northwest 3rd of the state, and no sign of any to come. Yet they still have 50-70% pops going.

 

Wrong.

 

They have it right west of Greenville, down towards Greenwood, but I can not see why they still have 50% pops anywhere near Hickory or Statesville or even Charlotte tonight. It's obvious those areas stay dry. The cool and dry air over these areas means it will not be raining up there. I'd even be surprised to see any of that big shield of rain and storms make it past I-26 in NC or SC. There MAY be 1 more chance for rain tomorrow for a few spots, but downsloping means most will stay dry. Then the rain chances go to 0 where i am for a couple of days and dont get much better right through day 7. It will take a tropical storm or hurricane for my location to get more than .25 of rain in any 24 hour period this summer that's for sure.

 

Wrong.

 

 

Good thing GSP doesn't ever listen to you.

 

We probably should. We could use him as an anti-fcst. Whatever he says, we'll do the opposite. Can't miss!   :lol:

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Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

 

We probably should. We could use him as an anti-fcst. Whatever he says, we'll do the opposite. Can't miss!   :lol:

j****ly is just plain wrong.

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Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

 

We probably should. We could use him as an anti-fcst. Whatever he says, we'll do the opposite. Can't miss!   :lol:

:lol:  This made me giggle   :lol: 

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Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong. 

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

Wrong.

 

 

 

We probably should. We could use him as an anti-fcst. Whatever he says, we'll do the opposite. Can't miss!   :lol:

 

 

I wish there was an upvote system here so I could upvote you.  This is hilarious!

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