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Summer 2015 pattern discussion


GaWx

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12z Euro once again showing a 597dm death ridge,  +27 850's stretching across North Carolina next Wednesday...triple digit heat for all locations outside of the mountains. Even Asheville reaches 96. Charlotte 107, RDU 108

:facepalm:

 

Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Hvward.....

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:facepalm:

 

Most models have a good bit of the south with the chance for showers Wednesday-Saturday. That will cool things locally. I still maintain that the models don't have a good handle on the unfolding situation. If Bill slows down or the H to the north is a tad stronger at least mby is going to get some good rain out of this. As far as temps, I am only looking at the short range NMM & ARW for guidance. They have been nailinf it lately and I haven't seen anything above 102-103 on them for anyone. These clown maps being spit out in the long range are as delusional as the fantansy snowstorms we see all winter. Hvward.....

 

 

 

I'm with ya in regards to the clown maps...but just the fact that a 597dm ridge has been showing up for 2 straight runs and 850's ranging anywhere from +24 to +27, that's enough of a signal to be on the lookout...

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Hoping we get some storms to cool things off a bit, but I doubt it. Not sure we can trust the long range models with anything, being the heat or snow.

 

I flat out guarantee some explosive storms for most parts of the Carolinas over the weekend,  we almost never get big heat like this without the atmosphere giving it up eventually. Starting tomorrow for us the chances of storms gets better and better and once you get a few going in this kind of atmosphere things break down fast. I got no problem with it being 93 at 1 pm if by 5 its 72 after a raging thunderstorms....

 

This kind of event comes to mind

 

http://www.weather.gov/mhx/Jul012012EventReview

 

this is the storm out my backdoor as it moved in ...5 miles further east of me it really nailed Grimesland it looked like a tornado passed through Shaggy was the one filming, trees came down all over with it we estimate it to be 50-60 mph with maybe a peak gust to 70-75 in there.....across the street where all the tall pines are there were at least 5-10 that came down but we don't see it really on the video.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzxlLhmUtNs

 

Then of course there was the Erin Derecho after several days of heat like we have just had

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070821/

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I flat out guarantee some explosive storms for most parts of the Carolinas over the weekend,  we almost never get big heat like this without the atmosphere giving it up eventually. Starting tomorrow for us the chances of storms gets better and better and once you get a few going in this kind of atmosphere things break down fast. I got no problem with it being 93 at 1 pm if by 5 its 72 after a raging thunderstorms....

 

Yes, I remember when we used to get good storms a lot in the afternoons when it got hot like this. Doesn't seem to happen as much now. Hope your guarantee works out.

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WxSouth on the thunderstorms today.

 

There's some good news for areas east of the mountains today---much better chance of Thunderstorms. There's no guarantee who gets them or exactly where they track, develop. The red zones appears where the better chances are, but really can't be ruled out anywhere since overalll things are slightly better to allow storms to form.

 

Outflow boundaries from the Ohio Valley convection can set off some interactions, topographic, differential heating effects, etc. With all the heat still in place, any storms can become severe cells, and they will be pretty slow movers, some lasting past midnight in the Piedmont of NC, SC VA and maybe GA. But to be honest most areas still probably won't get hit--this is just a broad guess as to where the best chance lies, and anything is better than "nada" that has happened lately. Good luck!

 

11224525_1079627138734007_27067168263637

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Not too far behind that, based on that map run, down here either. I'm guessing 102 - 103 for here, if the model pans out.

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I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech!
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I hope nobody is taking the GFS 2m temp.'s seriously due to its ridiculous hot bias at 2m. OTOH, it is still going to be disgustingly blazing, regardless, as 7-10 degrees cooler than those numbers would still be absolutely vile. This pattern cannot end soon enough. Blech!

+1

Too bad we can't get a wall to wall cold stretch in the winter, like we can a 2 week+ heatwave

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WxSouth on the thunderstorms today.

 

There's some good news for areas east of the mountains today---much better chance of Thunderstorms. There's no guarantee who gets them or exactly where they track, develop. The red zones appears where the better chances are, but really can't be ruled out anywhere since overalll things are slightly better to allow storms to form.

 

Outflow boundaries from the Ohio Valley convection can set off some interactions, topographic, differential heating effects, etc. With all the heat still in place, any storms can become severe cells, and they will be pretty slow movers, some lasting past midnight in the Piedmont of NC, SC VA and maybe GA. But to be honest most areas still probably won't get hit--this is just a broad guess as to where the best chance lies, and anything is better than "nada" that has happened lately. Good luck!

 

11224525_1079627138734007_27067168263637

 

 

I was one of the lucky ones today...

post-1418-0-13800400-1434591380_thumb.jp

 

post-1418-0-55277200-1434591402_thumb.jp

 

post-1418-0-44713900-1434591424_thumb.jp

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Two trees struck by two lightning bolts? Bet the people in that building needed a change of drawers. Pretty good proof that what few storms that do form in this miserable pattern can be quite violent.

 

 

I don't know for sure but two separate bolts would be my assumption as well...

 

The building in the background is actually non-residential, it is a tax service and insurance dealer inside of that building. Wonder if their electronics took a hit?

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