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Quincy

June 1st-6th Severe Events

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Looks like initiation has taken place SW of castle rock... Has an elongated "wing" look to it, which you usually see in the early stages of a supercell.

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MLCAPE is up to about 1500 J/kg here in northern Colorado. There are a couple of storms getting together in the mountains (RMNP) and around Larkspur CO.  KCYS radar is detecting several showers north of Laramie. It's kind of funny that the storms are firing up near Elk Mountain and Rawlins, WY, The dew points are 32 and 34 at those airports, but obviously moisture quality is good between there and Casper and Douglas. Right around here, clouds are increasing, but they are rather low cumulus.

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MLCAPE is up to about 1500 J/kg here in northern Colorado. There are a couple of storms getting together in the mountains (RMNP) and around Larkspur CO. KCYS radar is detecting several showers north of Laramie. It's kind of funny that the storms are firing up near Elk Mountain and Rawlins, WY, The dew points are 32 and 34 at those airports, but obviously moisture quality is good between there and Casper and Douglas. Right around here, clouds are increasing, but they are rather low cumulus.

storm near larkspur is starting to look pretty impressive...

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Some rotation showing up now on 0.5˚ tilt from KFTG.

indeed... another supercellular storm coming out of the front range west of Castle Rock, near Sedalia. This storm will have a higher likelihood of impacting the Denver metro.

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Hate to say it, but... nailed it. Castle Rock was first. Saw the cell growing as I was driving to pick up the kids from school, probably grew 20,000 ft in 10 minutes or less. 78/57 here (3 miles N Centennial Airport), will be an interesting late afternoon.

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Strange, a shower SE of the Douglas CO supercell seemed to move N and literally steal its thunder... merged with it then the whole thing weakened, maybe cut off the inflow. It was rotating pretty well, wonder if it might have become tornadic. Well, we have another strong one just moving out of the foothills to the north which may impact the S Denver Metro.

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Sig tor up to 4 in west central KS at present.  Will something pop this evening?

Perhaps this will be a rare underperforming 2015 day. Things seem to be optimal for a few severe storms in Kansas. The only thing that could be better is 500mb wind speed.

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Perhaps this will be a rare underperforming 2015 day. Things seem to be optimal for a few severe storms in Kansas. The only thing that could be better is 500mb wind speed.

initiation weat of Great Bend, KS. Let's see if this sustains though...

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Perhaps this will be a rare underperforming 2015 day. Things seem to be optimal for a few severe storms in Kansas. The only thing that could be better is 500mb wind speed.

 

There have been a number of days this year that have underperformed, not what I would call rare.

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Cell just south of Parker turning right (E) and holding its own. That might be the last chance for a tornado around the metro area today. Lots of reports of hail around an inch, a few bigger. Storms moved fast, in and out in an hour.

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Supercell near Hanston, KS has a beautiful reflectivity presentation on KDDC. As classic as it gets.. Currently sitting stationary and is producing baseball sized hail, possible tornado.

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Strong rotation on the TOR warned cell near Tipton, KS.

Edit: also the VAD-profiles from around the region, show impressive turning to about 10KFT... With about 20kts of low-level shear, which should only increase with a strengthening LLJ.

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Caught a couple of brief funnel clouds just north of Hartville, WY around 6:30 p.m. The cell looked very unimpressive on radar.

image.jpg

We were on that storm too but east and looking west from a great hill and watched it mature nicely but with a weakness in the winds below 500mb sampled on our 21z balloon launch and with unfavorable hodographs causing left splits (some of those even becoming dominant for awhile) and motions seemed to be right on it...and nothing could ever anchor and turn.

Funny how all the CAM models had near easterly storm motions in WY. The only good easterly component to storms seemed to be SE of Denver.

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Another day with good potential, but also plenty of red flags. Synoptically, it looks like further north into Nebraska would probably make the most sense, but then mesoscale details focus a little bit more on Kansas. Also there, skies are clearing and residual outflow boundaries are in place.Wiith marginal wind shear, that might not work out well. Perhaps somewhere near the Kansas/Nebraska border might be best for a compromise. Low level wind fields are good there. Models are progging some pretty hefty CAPE and there might be just enough overlap if storms can initiate and remain discrete.

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Agree south of the intersecting boundaries (southwest KS) is out. Storms will battle warm mid-levels and low level winds will not be backed. Even Nebraska north of the boundary lacks great upper support. Water vapor indicates short-wave is departing and heights are building slightly. That said, high CAPE can make up for lackluster upper jet support, iff one finds the right locally higher low level helicity.

 

The right boundary intersection has a chance today. Northeast Kansas rain and storms have deposited a boundary that curves back to the northwest into northwest Kansas (16Z) but it will probably try to lift even more. Synoptic front has entered northwest Kansas; otherwise, it stretches east on the KS/NE border approximately. This position is subject to change as well, more likely to the north than south. Rising heights should promote at least stationary front behavior, if not WF, but anything is better than CF behavior. I would target the intersection of these two boundaries, and punt the CF/DL intersection (farther south) if they remain separate.

 

OFB and SF/WF (north) will offer better low level turning and are north of the worst 700 mb heat. They should intersect in northwest Kansas or southwest to south-central Nebraska. Always a risk of cold air undercutting going for this particular target, but dews 60-65 north of synoptic boundary mitigate that risk somewhat. Process of elimination: I hate the CF/DL in southwest Kansas so I would chase the OFB/SF/WF intersection farther north. You know a pair of jacks is frustrating, but better than 8 high card.

 

My target boundary intersection was fairly clear on vis satellite and surface at 16Z. It may remain so for a couple more hours before clouds burn off the north side and it becomes more diffuse on the sfc chart. Track with care and deliberation. Good luck to all booking a tube today!

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Caught the edge of this hail-warned storm at sunset as it was moving into WY from Fort Collins

 

sTtAK74.jpg

That is an outstanding image. I tried to get out to get this image but was too slow and missed the light. So glad you caught it!

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This is probably the best setup we've had this week, with regards to combination of instability and shear. Very solid air-mass right now from central Kansas to about the Nebraska border. Let's see if it can actually produce though.

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This is probably the best setup we've had this week, with regards to combination of instability and shear. Very solid air-mass right now from central Kansas to about the Nebraska border. Let's see if it can actually produce though.

STP already at 4 in NC KS at 18Z...0-3KM EHI of 7... Eff. Shear of 40-55kts across KS/NE.. MUCAPE of 2000-4000 (at 18Z)... And all that will only continue to increase, except maybe shear.. VAD-profilers from across the region (and especially TWX) depict impressive turning with height, and impressive shear in the lowest 0-3KFT. Explosive, and volatile environment in place, already. But with little in the way of large scale forcing, and a strong cap, storm intiation further south is a big question in the area of maximized instability.

Edit: also the storm between Topeka and Emporia could get interesting... appears to be riding along an OFB, currently has hen egg sized hail. Downside is it will likely slowly move into a less favorable environment.

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Agitated Cu going up in northwest Kansas from Hays to Hill City. Probably stay turkey towers for a little bit, but 18Z HRRR has this area turning into a right moving cell of note. It is on the OFB but farther from the synoptic boundary than I first forecast. However it would eliminate the cool air undercutting risk. I'd still watch all the way to the Nebraska border, but believe stuff north of stationary front stays elevated. Again, Hays to Hill city agitated Cu lines up with 18Z HRRR cell of note.

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Agitated Cu going up in northwest Kansas from Hays to Hill City. Probably stay turkey towers for a little bit, but 18Z HRRR has this area turning into a right moving cell of note. It is on the OFB but farther from the synoptic boundary than I first forecast. However it would eliminate the cool air undercutting risk. I'd still watch all the way to the Nebraska border, but believe stuff north of stationary front stays elevated. Again, Hays to Hill city agitated Cu lines up with 18Z HRRR cell of note.

the environment across NC KS is pure insanity. Any discrete storm that moved into this bullseye will likely produce a tornado and very large to giant hail it seems like. Widespread STP of 5-7, 0-3KM EHI of 10-12, 0-1KM EHI of 3-4, SCP of 28, Craven/Brooks SigSvr of 80-100, ESRH of 300-400m2/s2, all of which will only improve... CU appear to be going up in this area, and areas west as well, as you mentioned... To add to it all of that, it's along a boundary which is likely further enhanced and reinforced by previous OFB's.

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