el Nino Watch

[Hoosier]

Really don't see what you're seeing. All signs point to a real clunker winter. Expecting anything else may be setting yourself up for disappointment imo.

That's debatable imo. There are some signs pointing toward a not so terrible winter (e.g. some of the long range seasonal progs are suggesting temps around to a bit warmer than average). Of course I'm talking about relative to average and not what has happened the past couple years.

[Hoosier]

Although I would say at this early juncture that December could be an all out disaster. That is not really uncommon in robust Ninos.

[michsnowfreak]

Really don't see what you're seeing. All signs point to a real clunker winter. Expecting anything else may be setting yourself up for disappointment imo.

Keep in mind, I've already said nothing will surprise me. Saying i dont think it will be a top 5 warmest winter isnt that much of a leap imo lol, & again...not at all saying it wont be mild, just that i doubt it will be that warm.

But what signs point to a not so terrible winter? Here are the signs that actually point to another harsh winter.

~NPAC

~the nature signs (acorn & tree seed production for example)

~almanacs (I only include this because their "secret formula" is based on a lot of the above mentioned nature, astronomical signs).

~increased snowiness in our region

~Troughing dominance for nearly 3 years

Some of the seasonal progs aren't bad. I think the cfs is the torchiest.

The question really is...other than 82-83/97-98 what other signs are you seeing that point to a real clunker? Even strong nino climo, while certainly favoring a mild winter, does not mean all out all winter torch. In fact strong ninos have produced some great winter storms in our region, & unless I'm mistaken, it seems that's actually a dream winter for those tired of endless cold and snowcover and want some mild days thrown in.

Torch or cold, snowfall above or below normal really won't surprise me...about the only thing that would surprise me is a top 10 snowless winter, & that has nothing to do with el Nino and everything to do with snowfall patterns this century.

[michsnowfreak]

Although I would say at this early juncture that December could be an all out disaster. That is not really uncommon in robust Ninos.

Snow on christmas and preferably the christmas season is always MUCH appreciated. But if I had to pick a month out of DJF to be a clunker it would be Dec.

Dec might suck but once again...not sure about all out disaster. Dec 1972 was decent, 1997 and 1957 were ok, 1877 and 1982 disaster.

[Jonger]

Josh, get your passport ready. Algoma region of Canada is about the same distance as Paradise, but about 1,000 feet higher and more snow. No matter how bad this winter gets, that area will still see 300 inches.

[A-L-E-K]

It will be insane if the persistent western ridge survives the winter

[csnavywx]

honestly I could see it surviving. Warm goa, warm pac, it makes sense that a bit of a feedback loop might develop. A very strong Nina could kill it, don't you think?

Sent from my iPhone

Ninos tend to produce strong GoA/NE Pac lows/troughs. The stronger the magnitude, the stronger the trough. Interestingly, almost all models put the axe to a large chunk of the N. Pac warm pool this fall due to this very reason.

[Rainman]

Ninos tend to produce strong GoA/NE Pac lows/troughs. The stronger the magnitude, the stronger the trough. Interestingly, almost all models put the axe to a large chunk of the N. Pac warm pool this fall due to this very reason.

 

And there's no reason to think this won't happen.  Folks put too much emphasis on middle and high latitude SSTs.  What sort of SST anomaly  would you expect in a place where a ridge has been sitting for year after year?  SSTs are part of a feedback.  A winter full of NE pac lows will have no problem changing the SST pattern beneath it.

[Rainman]

But what signs point to a not so terrible winter? Here are the signs that actually point to another harsh winter.

~NPAC

~the nature signs (acorn & tree seed production for example)

~almanacs (I only include this because their "secret formula" is based on a lot of the above mentioned nature, astronomical signs).

~increased snowiness in our region

~Troughing dominance for nearly 3 years

Some of the seasonal progs aren't bad. I think the cfs is the torchiest.

 

 

I get your point with the NPAC, but like I said in my last post, overreliance on SSTs is a problem in long range forecasting, especially in the winter.  The atmosphere can very easily wash away those warm anomalies and there's no reason to think it won't happen.  Your other points are hocus pocus, to be honest.  I know you like snow (so do I), but are we really resorting to acorns, the farmer's almanac, and a persistence forecast in the face of the strongest el Nino in almost 20 years?

[michsnowfreak]

I get your point with the NPAC, but like I said in my last post, overreliance on SSTs is a problem in long range forecasting, especially in the winter. The atmosphere can very easily wash away those warm anomalies and there's no reason to think it won't happen. Your other points are hocus pocus, to be honest. I know you like snow (so do I), but are we really resorting to acorns, the farmer's almanac, and a persistence forecast in the face of the strongest el Nino in almost 20 years?

I think you are taking it the wrong way. I have not ONCE said we are in for a harsh winter. I have no idea what winter will bring (really no one does). I was merely responding to a comment on my response to jongers post thinking this upcoming winter could be equivalent to winters that were top 5 warmest and said I don't think it will be THAT warm. Basically I'm not banking on one of the warmest winters on record after the period of cool persistence we have been in for 3 years now. Nowhere in there did it imply it would be another severe winter, but I was asked what signs do I see that it won't be a terrible winter. Yes those signs of nature are hocus pocus, but they are centuries old ways that were all people had before technology, & if technology didn't exist, the prophets would be calling for another severe winter . I don't know how else to really respond to that...I mean...what signs (good or bad) can I see? I can look at forecast models and past strong ninos, and that's about it. It seems all anyone can mention are 82-83 and 97-98 (even then the two winters had a ton of differnces).

I guess we will have to wait until April to see

It's going to be hard enough to adjust the mindset back to climo and not what we are used to in recent years. I'm probably more "prepared" for a mild winter than most snow lovers lol.

[BuffaloWeather]

Strong/moderate El Ninos usually result in low snowfall totals. I'll use Chicago and Buffalo as examples, and maybe you can add Detriot MSF.

 

Strong El Ninos

 

Chicago:

 

57-58: 20"

65-66: 24.9"

72-73: 32.9"

82-83: 26.6"

97-98: 29.6"

 

Mean: 26.8"

 

Buffalo

 

57-58: 124.7"

65-66: 98.2"

72-73: 78.8"

82-83: 52.4"

97-98: 75.6"

 

Mean: 85.9"

 

Moderate El Ninos

 

Chicago

 

86-87- 26.2"

87-88- 42.6"

91-92- 28.4"

02-03- 28.6"

09-10- 54.2"

 

Mean: 36"

 

Buffalo

 

86-87- 67.5"

87-88- 56.4"

91-92- 92.8"

02-03- 111.3"

09-10- 74.1"

 

Mean- 80.42"

 

Based on the 30-year climate period from 1971-2000, Chicago gets about 40 inches of snow a season (from the first flake to fall to the last snow), with a 38.0-inch seasonal normal at O'Hare International Airport and 42.9 inches at Midway Airport.

 

In the last 30 years KBUFS annual snowfall is around 100" per year. So we can see in strong El Ninos on average snowfall is cut anywhere from 10-30%. You do get some years with anomalies, but on average you can expect a warmer winter with less snowfall based on past strong El Ninos.

[Toronto4]

The Weather Network here in Canada released their fall forecast earlier this week and they are calling for a warmer than normal pattern for the Great Lakes region for the 1st half of fall. However, a colder pattern will develop for the 2nd half (eg. November) with mild weather returning for December. The latter part of winter will feature colder temps.

This almost looks like a carbon copy of 2002-03 (moderate El-Nino) and 2014-15 to a lesser extent. September and the 1st half of Oct 2002 were warmer than normal but the switch flipped to colder late October and November. In fact, 8" of snow fell on Nov 16-17, 2002 in Toronto. December was milder than normal and winter returned in January 2003.

[ClicheVortex2014]

You guys are so beyond me I feel embarrassed to even participate in the conversation, so my apologies for wasting everybody's time if so.

That said - I totally get that the warm gulf is a product of the rrr, but it's my understanding its also a big part of what's made the ridge so long lived, the ridge warms the gulf, the warm gulf is supportive of the ridge, and on and on we go. True?

Sent from my iPhone

I'm right there with you in your first sentence. My 2 cents is that, whatever caused the RRR and the warm pool in the first place, has created some sort of a feedback loop. Some Meteorologists in this subforum believe the warm pool is getting too much credit for the persistence of the RRR... but I have a tough time completely agreeing with that. I think it's been more important in its persistence (albeit not solely responsible)... but only because there hasn't been a persistent forcing mechanism from the Tropical Pacific to compete with. 

 

But the Nino-forced Aleutian low later on in this winter could be positioned in a way that creates a pattern similar to the RRR pattern we've seen for the past 2 years. If that happens and the RRR persists, then it should die with the 2016-17 Nina.

[sokolow]

You guys are so beyond me I feel embarrassed to even participate in the conversation, so my apologies for wasting everybody's time if so. That said - I totally get that the warm gulf is a product of the rrr, but it's my understanding its also a big part of what's made the ridge so long lived, the ridge warms the gulf, the warm gulf is supportive of the ridge, and on and on we go. True?Sent from my iPhone

weather west just put up a discussion of the blob and the RRR, genesis & feedback w/ links to more in depth on same

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3405

[Chinook]

I'm right there with you in your first sentence. My 2 cents is that, whatever caused the RRR and the warm pool in the first place, has created some sort of a feedback loop. Some Meteorologists in this subforum believe the warm pool is getting too much credit for the persistence of the RRR... but I have a tough time completely agreeing with that. I think it's been more important in its persistence (albeit not solely responsible)... but only because there hasn't been a persistent forcing mechanism from the Tropical Pacific to compete with. 

 

But the Nino-forced Aleutian low later on in this winter could be positioned in a way that creates a pattern similar to the RRR pattern we've seen for the past 2 years. If that happens and the RRR persists, then it should die with the 2016-17 Nina.

Ye olde Ridiculously Resilient Ridge. As I am sure many of you know, the area of the Pacific west of Seattle has had positive 500mb anomalies and positive SST anomalies for a large part of the last 3 winters. This map averages the anomalies of Nov-Mar for the last three winters (a total of 15 months out of 3 years)

 

[Jonger]

Josh or myself along side I-75 northbound in January.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Josh or myself along side I-75 northbound in January.

Lol you are preparing for worse than will probably happen

[cyclone77]

With the strong el-nino entrenching in for the upcoming winter lets put the over/under zzzzz posts from Alek this winter at 65.

[Stebo]

With the strong el-nino entrenching in for the upcoming winter lets put the over/under zzzzz posts from Alek this winter at 65.

I'll pound the over.

[michsnowfreak]

Strong/moderate El Ninos usually result in low snowfall totals. I'll use Chicago and Buffalo as examples, and maybe you can add Detriot MSF.

 

Strong El Ninos

 

Chicago:

 

57-58: 20"

65-66: 24.9"

72-73: 32.9"

82-83: 26.6"

97-98: 29.6"

 

Mean: 26.8"

 

Buffalo

 

57-58: 124.7"

65-66: 98.2"

72-73: 78.8"

82-83: 52.4"

97-98: 75.6"

 

Mean: 85.9"

 

Moderate El Ninos

 

Chicago

 

86-87- 26.2"

87-88- 42.6"

91-92- 28.4"

02-03- 28.6"

09-10- 54.2"

 

Mean: 36"

 

Buffalo

 

86-87- 67.5"

87-88- 56.4"

91-92- 92.8"

02-03- 111.3"

09-10- 74.1"

 

Mean- 80.42"

 

Based on the 30-year climate period from 1971-2000, Chicago gets about 40 inches of snow a season (from the first flake to fall to the last snow), with a 38.0-inch seasonal normal at O'Hare International Airport and 42.9 inches at Midway Airport.

 

In the last 30 years KBUFS annual snowfall is around 100" per year. So we can see in strong El Ninos on average snowfall is cut anywhere from 10-30%. You do get some years with anomalies, but on average you can expect a warmer winter with less snowfall based on past strong El Ninos.

I have a list of El Nino winters dating to the 1870s. I dont remember where I found the link, it was way back in I think 2010 or so, since the ncdc chart only goes to 1950 (talk about a painfully small sample size).

 

Here is a copy/paste of the data. I included seasonal snowfall, snowcover days, peak depth, biggest snowstorm, and DJF temp.

 

Since averages change/oscillate slightly through the years, just to get an idea when looking at this data... appox avg for Detroit is seasonal snowfall ~42" and DJF temp ~27F.

 

WEAK EL NINOS (Snowfall at Detroit, MI)

Season......Snow.....1"+ snwcvr....PK Dpth...Biggest Snowstorm…DJF TEMP

2004-05.....63.8"......62 days.....12"......12.2" (Jan 22)……………27.4F

1977-78.....61.7"......91 days.....15"......10.1" (Jan 25-27)………..20.6F

1976-77.....43.9"......67 days.......9"........8.3" (Mar 17/18)……….19.7F

1969-70.....45.1"......67 days.......7"........4.8" (Dec 31 & Feb 9)…22.4F

1963-64.....32.5"......57 days.......6"........4.4" (Dec 11/12)……….27.7F

1953-54.....40.0"......49 days.......7"........6.5" (Feb 28/Mar 1)……31.0F

1951-52.....58.6"......52 days.....16"........6.8" (Dec 17/18)……….29.0F

1939-40.....32.2"......53 days.......4"........4.1" (Mar 27)…………..26.4F

1923-24.....37.7"......??...............7"........5.9" (Feb 19/20)………..28.4F

1905-06.....29.4"......30 days.......6"........5.7" (Mar 18/19)……….30.5F

1904-05.....37.4"......??.............16"........5.4” (Feb 12).…………..21.4F

MODERATE EL NINOS (Snowfall at Detroit, MI)

Season......Snow.....1"+ snwcvr....PK Dpth...Biggest Snowstorm…DJF TEMP

2006-07.....30.3"......43 days......8".......8.5" (Feb 13/14)……….29.1F

2002-03.....60.9"......63 days......9".......7.3" (Feb 22/23)……….24.2F

1994-95.....33.5"......39 days......7".......7.6" (Dec 6/7)………….29.7F

1987-88.....45.1"......42 days....10".......8.2" (Feb 11/12)……….26.9F

1986-87.....49.7"......37 days......7".......8.1" (Jan 9/10)…………29.1F

1968-69.....17.1"......28 days......5".......3.3" (Jan 6)…………….26.4F

1965-66.....15.4"......33 days......4".......3.0" (Jan 22/23)………..28.5F

1941-42.....23.4"......20 days......3".......4.2" (Apr 9/10)………...28.2F

1930-31.....47.8"......49 days......7".....11.0" (Mar 7/8)………….30.2F

1925-26.....78.0"......70 days......9".......8.9" (Feb 12/13)……….26.1F

1918-19.....15.2"......12 days......5".......5.8" (Mar 8/9)………….32.3F

1914-15.....37.6"......65 days....10".......5.3" (Jan 18/19)………..25.6F

1911-12.....58.0"......85 days....13".......8.6" (Mar 14)…………..21.8F

STRONG EL NINOS (Snowfall at Detroit, MI)

Season......Snow.....1"+ snwcvr....PK Dpth...Biggest Snowstorm…DJF TEMP

2009-10….43.7”…..48 days….10”…..8.6” (Feb 9/10)…………27.4F

1997-98.....23.5"......30 days.......6".......4.5" (Dec 10)…………..33.8F

1991-92.....43.5"......41 days.....12"......11.1" (Jan 14)…………..30.4F

1982-83.....20.0"......15 days.......6".......7.3" (Mar 20/21)……….32.5F

1972-73.....45.0"......38 days.......9".......9.9" (Mar 16/17)……….27.9F

1957-58.....18.0"......32 days.......3".......2.1" (Feb 13-15)……….28.0F

1940-41.....26.8"......33 days.......4".......3.8" (Nov 29/30)……….28.0F

1902-03.....51.3"......??...............9".......7.4" (Feb 8)……………..25.5F

1899-00.....69.1"......??.............26"......16.1" (Mar 4/5)………….26.2F

1896-97.....43.8"......??...............9"........9.0" (Feb 21)…………...26.9F

1888-89.....23.2"......??...............3"........3.0" (Jan. 9)……..……...27.1F

1877-78....~45"+.....??...............?........15.7" (Jan 31/Feb 1)……...31.6F

[Chinook]

Michsnowfreak

 

Strong El Ninos at Detroit since 1957 seem to have either 20(ish) or 43(ish) inches of snow per year. Strange.

[the tofu survivor]

So what's the good word on El Nino this year? I moved here to Akron from Florida a few years ago and the winters here are brutal. I know it's not gonna be much but will El Nino bring some warmer weather and less snow to Ohio? I'd even settle for a degree or two warmer lol. I'll take what I can get.

[Hoosier]

The JAS trimonthly number for region 3.4 came in at 1.5.  FWIW, the 1997 number for those same 3 months was 1.7.  The 1982 number for those same 3 months was 1.0

[Harry]

The JAS trimonthly number for region 3.4 came in at 1.5.  FWIW, the 1997 number for those same 3 months was 1.7.  The 1982 number for those same 3 months was 1.0

 

And 1972 ( 3rd strongest nino ) it was 1.3!

[Hoosier]

And 1972 ( 3rd strongest nino ) it was 1.3!

Yep. That one ended up with a trimonthly peak of 2.0

[Hoosier]

Weekly 3.4 reading is up to 2.7.  That is a tad ahead of where we were at this time in 1997.  But note that the eastern region is significantly cooler than 1997.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[Rainman]

So what's the good word on El Nino this year? I moved here to Akron from Florida a few years ago and the winters here are brutal. I know it's not gonna be much but will El Nino bring some warmer weather and less snow to Ohio? I'd even settle for a degree or two warmer lol. I'll take what I can get.

 

Yes, December and January will most likely be warmer than normal.  Possibly much warmer.  February is a bit of a tossup, I think.

[Harry]

Weekly 3.4 reading is up to 2.7.  That is a tad ahead of where we were at this time in 1997.  But note that the eastern region is significantly cooler than 1997.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

Not surprising and another jump wouldn't surprise me as the daily readings have jumped upwards across all the regions but more so in 3.4 which is now up to +3.0!

[Hoosier]

ASO ONI was 1.7, which trails only 1997 at this point.

[Rainman]

If the warmth, snow in the southwest, and heavy rains in the south didn't make it evident, it appears that we're off and running with our winter pattern.  Compare the Nov forecast anomaly with CFS simulations of the rest of winter.