Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
 Share

Recommended Posts

00z CRP sounding looks fairly promising regarding moisture with a 72˚F sfc Td and the moist layer to about 850 mb. Low level jet does strengthen fairly substantially through the morning hours with the emergence of the shortwave from the Four Corners. Otherwise, antecedent synoptic conditions don't exactly lend a lot of confidence with the "ceiling" scenario, would've obviously helped if the system currently over Dixie hadn't taken a southern track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, andyhb said:

00z CRP sounding looks fairly promising regarding moisture with a 72˚F sfc Td and the moist layer to about 850 mb. Low level jet does strengthen fairly substantially through the morning hours with the emergence of the shortwave from the Four Corners. Otherwise, antecedent synoptic conditions don't exactly lend a lot of confidence with the "ceiling" scenario, would've obviously helped if the system currently over Dixie hadn't taken a southern track.

There have been some pretty impressive moisture return cases in history. We'll see how it plays out. SREF mean has generally increased with each run. 

I was just about to post about the CRP sounding. That is an impressive moisture profile. Eager to see how things change overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, andyhb said:

It's not really "sneaky", people have been monitoring this for awhile.

I just mean in regard to tornado threat. I realize there is a sizeable chance of significant severe in other areas as others have aptly noted. Great threads by the way, glad so many knowledgeable people like yourself keep us novices learning and engaged. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rather strong signal from the 00z WRF-ARW/NMMB and NSSL WRF for an intense supercell or two INVOF the Red River right on the northern periphery of the 60s Tds. Just ahead of the trough axis on the southern periphery of the mid level cold pool (i.e. a place where it would make sense assuming at least half-decent moisture verification).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7z,8z, and 9z runs of the HRRR are remarkably consistent with a supercell over the OKC metro.  Even with no tornadoes, large hail could make a huge mess where that tracks. A thing to note is that the 07z HRRR is a degreee or 2 high with dews over parts of south central Texas at 11z.  This is corrected by the 09z run.  It has been consistent with dew points in Oklahoma as of 11z. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JasonOH said:

7z,8z, and 9z runs of the HRRR are remarkably consistent with a supercell over the OKC metro.  Even with no tornadoes, large hail could make a huge mess where that tracks. A thing to note is that the 07z HRRR is a degreee or 2 high with dews over parts of south central Texas at 11z.  This is corrected by the 09z run.  It has been consistent with dew points in Oklahoma as of 11z. 

It's definitely ominous as far as the number of intense looking supercells. I'm still not convinced the tornado threat will be significant. Probably some brief and weaker spin ups. Moderate risk out now, for hail and wind. 10% TOR area in south central OK as well.

At this point it's just wait and watch the higher dew points as they surge north this morning and early afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

At this point it's just wait and watch the higher dew points as they surge north this morning and early afternoon.

This exactly! I need to get some studying done (for a meteorology class), but I'm doing a surface analysis every 2-3 hours today.  These are the days when the Mesonet is so awesome, since Obs are everything, especially on a day like today with questionable moisture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recent rainfall with more falling today across the southern/central High Plains should help put a dent in what was a gradually worsening drought, which will be a factor in severe threats into April.

If we can sustain a fairly active upper air pattern and increase surface/boundary layer moisture at the same time, that will bode well with severe prospects in the coming weeks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While moisture looks relatively poor, a brief window for strong supercells appears possible Tuesday along I-44 in NE OK, SE KS, and SW MO. This seems most likely along the SFC low track east along the warm front, where wind profiles will favor 150-200 0-1km SRH, ESRH north of 300 m2/s2, and effective bulk shear 45+ knots.

While dewpoints likely will be characterized by upper 50s //perhaps pockets of 60 F//, strong lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft look to yield 1500-2000 MLCAPE by late afternoon Tuesday, with little to no inhibition. WIth potent wave approaching from the west and associated 80 knot jet noses into the warm sector/associated DCVA/large-scale ascent combined with convergence along cold front and INVOF sfc low expected to yield initiation of numerous cells. NAM 3k shows initiation of cells invof sfc low and along cold front. Storm mode would likely evolve into a linear mode but a window should exist for discrete supercell activity.

 

Given aforementioned parameters.. A strong/dominant discrete supercell or two certainly seems plausible. Tornado potential would likely be low until early eve when LCLs would begin to lower..assuming storms were still discrete by then. Wind profiles do have quite a look to them with a solid, classically veering profile with height...Worth watching at this point. NAMNSTSGP_sfc_dewp_047.png.03fa69eab1047cdc7320e9b021e2ca96.png

NAMSGP_500_spd_048.png.3dc98f51435838ff24a0ba41d4b6e9e6.png

 

Not going to post UH tracks, but 3km NAM has some incredibly strong UH output associated with discrete convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...