mayjawintastawm Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Pretty nasty cell bearing down on Sterling, CO with baseball size hail and lots of rotation. Looks like a funnel cloud per chaser video. Sterling is the only town of any size in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 2" hail and 70mph gusts (nws estimate) bearing head on for Oshkosh, NE edit: New warning 3" hail and 70mph gusts. Very dangerous storm wording added. That cell is going insane edit2: Now 80mph gusts and baseball size hail. Lordy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Pretty nasty cell bearing down on Sterling, CO with baseball size hail and lots of rotation. Looks like a funnel cloud per chaser video. Sterling is the only town of any size in the area. Tornado, wind, and hail reports in Sterling. The tornado report said that it was in a field, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Yikes. Spotter confirmed 80mph gusts and baseballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 This may be the best 0-6 km shear I've seen in an unstable sector in mid-summer. It would be about a 1 hour drive for me to get out to the supercells, but I don't think I want to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Already got a cell in SE Wyoming with 50,000 feet echo tops per radarscope. 70 DBZ+ sigs on radar. Edit as of 4:02: Confirmed tornado. Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Kimball County in the Panhandle of Nebraska... Northeastern Laramie County in southeastern Wyoming... * Until 230 PM MDT. * At 156 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Gun Barrel, or 29 miles northeast of Cheyenne, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter. SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado near mile marker 45 of US highway 85. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Burns around 220 PM MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 This is a possible tornado about 2.5 mi north of Cheyenne's airport (and radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Cheyenne taking it on the chin this evening. Another tornado warned storm to the NW headed their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 in this area, the late July-August time frame usually has much less shear and less severe weather. I can see the towering cumulus and anvil clouds 30-70 miles east of me. As you might imagine, there's no way to distinguish between the three cells from this distance. It looks like one mass of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 There have already been 2 confirmed tornadoes (MO, OK) today, and according to the northernmost tornado warning, another radar-confirmed tornado in Missouri, with some other possible tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Sooooooo what happened to this tornado watch they were going to issue? lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1361.html #Still2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2018 Share Posted August 27, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0351.html Finally, only 6 hours after the MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 I like the look of next weekend, particularly the look the GFS is advertising. Both the GFS and the Euro have a seasonably strong trough coming into the west with a 60-70kt 500mb jet over mid/upper 60s dews across much of the plains. Sunday looks to be the biggest day as of right now, but things are going to change. Even then, going off the pattern alone, some sort of severe weather looks probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Where was that in May (or April...or June)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Things have overachieved a bit this morning with that QLCS in central OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Bump... could be a very active day tomorrow in SE TX and LA per SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, primarily capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes, will be possible from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday evening into the overnight. Elsewhere, a few severe storms capable of large hail will be possible near the Edwards Plateau Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... The large-scale pattern will continue to amplify on Wednesday in response to the interaction of a sharp shortwave trough moving into west Texas and a secondary mid-level impulse dropping southeast across the Rockies. As this occurs, southwesterly 500mb flow will increase from east Texas to Mississippi through the overnight. A low-level jet will correspondingly intensify from the upper Texas coast to the Ohio Valley, with a corridor of at least 50-60 kt south/southwesterly winds at 850 mb. Along the western edge of a surface ridge centered over the southeast US coast, increasing boundary-layer moisture will stream northward across the western Gulf, southern Plains, and Mississippi Valley. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of central/northern Texas Wednesday morning, generally located near/north of an effective cold front stretching from the Big Country northeastward to the Arklatex. These cells may be capable of isolated marginally severe hail, but should mostly be sub-severe. Through the afternoon, the effective front is forecast to drive southward across central Texas. While the pre-frontal environment in this area will be conditionally favorable for all severe hazards, deep-layer shear vectors suggest most cells will be undercut by the front, limiting the wind/tornado potential. Therefore, the Enhanced risk has been contracted some here. Conversely, the Slight risk has been expanded westward towards the Edwards Plateau, where the primary shortwave trough and strong effective shear may encourage a few elevated storms capable of large hail during the afternoon and evening. The highest potential for impactful severe weather will likely exist from southeast Texas towards the lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight. In conjunction with the aforementioned low-level jet, channels of warm/moist low-level confluence streaming north off the Gulf will probably encourage discrete development ahead of a southwest/northeast-oriented line of strong/severe storms moving east across the Sabine Valley during the evening. Forecast soundings indicate ample low-level shear for stronger circulations within both discrete/line-embedded supercells and QLCS structures, with this potential likely maximized across portions of western/central Louisiana and western Mississippi. Although instability will be modest, enough low-level CAPE should be available for a threat of tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) and damaging winds, especially considering surface dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Indeed, HREF guidance indicates high probabilities of at least 500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE extending to the Mississippi Delta. Considering this fairly consistent signal from large-scale and hi-res guidance, the Enhanced/Slight risks have been expanded eastward for a nocturnal threat of tornadoes and damaging winds. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Picca.. 10/30/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Not sure what they're seeing in regards to the 10% hatched. Looks like a linear mess with all that convergence coupled and SMVs being parallel to the CF. Seem to be banking on prefrontal storms, but even then, the environment really isnt that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 The more problematic event might be early next week with a very favorable 500 mb pattern for a larger scale severe episode across the S US showing up on the ensembles. Going to hinge on how much moisture return can take place since there could be a FROPA or two through the Gulf prior to then, but that definitely looks to be something to watch especially since it may fall on Election Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 312010 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-010200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi East Texas * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 10/31/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 416 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwestern Arkansas Northwestern Louisiana Extreme southeastern Oklahoma Much of east Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity through the evening along a cold front across central and northeastern Texas, while other storms will continue to form ahead of the front across southeastern Texas. The storm environment will become more favorable for rotating storms through the evening, with an attendant threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Texarkana AR to 70 miles west southwest of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Areas affected...central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312055Z - 312230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in intensity this evening, with a threat of isolated tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving front currently extends from northeast AR to just north of LZK to west of TXK. South of this boundary, a moist air mass exists and is gradually warming due to advection. MUCAPE is currently around 1500-2000 j/kg, with effective SRH on the order of 100-150 m2/s2 per LZK VWP. Shear profiles are forecast to increase a bit this evening in advance of the upper trough, with 850 flow around 40 kt. This will result in hodographs favoring supercells, and a tornado or two may occur. As such, a watch may need to be considered soon. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Two tornado reports already per SPC's Storm Reports... one TOR was confirmed on the ground per HGX near Sealy earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Tornado Warning TXC015-157-473-312145- /O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0012.181031T2102Z-181031T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 402 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas... Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 402 PM CDT, a storm with a history of a confirmed tornado was located near Sealy, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... San Felipe around 410 PM CDT. Simonton around 415 PM CDT. Northern Weston Lakes around 425 PM CDT. Pattison around 430 PM CDT. Brookshire and Fulshear around 435 PM CDT. Katy around 445 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2996 9589 2979 9583 2978 9581 2970 9577 2966 9609 2973 9617 TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 243DEG 16KT 2972 9608 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 There were several unconfirmed calls of a touchdown for the other one at Agnes Road and FM 2759 (Booth, TX.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 410 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southeastern Arkansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 410 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase through the evening from southwestern into central Arkansas, and then storms will spread eastward through the early overnight hours. The storm environment will gradually become more favorable for rotating storms, with an attendant threat for a couple of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles south southwest of Hot Springs AR to 45 miles northeast of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 416... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Louisiana Western Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 810 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Conditions will continue to become increasingly favorable for supercells and bowing segments along and ahead an east/northeastward-moving convective line. Very strong low-level shear coincident with a moist air mass will support the possibility of damaging winds and tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of El Dorado AR to 30 miles southeast of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Things still a little slow, mainly broken segments still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 TW for Alexandria, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 If the Euro is on the right track (and it has been fairly steady), we could be dealing with a very significant severe weather event Monday evening continuing into Tuesday afternoon from E Texas and SE Oklahoma extending into AL and GA. Sampling one of the parameter spaces at 06z in along the I-55 corridor in MS reveals SBCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, deep layer shear of 60-70 kts and low level shear in places in excess of 50 kts (this type of environment is generally in place through the whole period in one place or another). This would be an environment capable of long lived supercells with significant tornadoes. Moreover, this trough is quite low amplitude (compared to its wavelength) and would likely portend a long period of discrete/semi-discrete storm mode. Extent of the threat will be dependent on moisture return of course, but it is important to note that notable destabilization in this case will occur nearly independent of the diurnal cycle given the strong advective processes (WAA, moist advection) vs. diabatic insolation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Fairly good verification on this day-1 outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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