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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
701 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0655 PM     TORNADO          GOODMAN                 36.74N 94.40W  
04/04/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR     
  
            BUILDINGS DAMAGED.   

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
701 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2017  
  
MOC009-109-145-050045-  
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170405T0045Z/  
NEWTON MO-BARRY MO-LAWRENCE MO-  
701 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EASTERN  
NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN BARRY AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...  
      
AT 701 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF   
NEOSHO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TOR

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Can't get a real good feel on today's "threat" beyond the fact that it's conditional. If a storm goes up anywhere from south-central Kansas to Oklahoma, it will certainly have the potential (if not likelihood) to go supercellular. 

Although there are legit concerns about SBCINH/capping, the NCAR ensembles erode most of the cap at LMN by 23z. While just 3/10 NCAR ensembles show robust convective initiation in OK (all in SW OK), they show nothing where the HRRR shows better convergence in north-central OK. 

IMG_0943.thumb.JPG.f9d407955e2124ee0596ca2131064404.JPG

Brett mentioned it in the long range thread: we could get nothing and the models may back off, as just a slight bias toward cap-breach will be the difference between nothing and a supercell. The latest HRRR shows nothing through 23z, but you can tell it's on the verge at that point near I-35 in northern OK. 

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Decent looking supercell with a tornado warning just south of Kilgore, TX. Radar indicated at this time. Local news has reports of some wind damage in Arp, TX and a spotter has reported a well defined wall cloud and possible funnel just south of Kilgore. 

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This severe thunderstorm earlier north of Oilton, Texas had quite the warning on it...

TXC479-112330-
/O.CON.KCRP.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170411T2330Z/
Webb TX-
610 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEBB COUNTY...

At 610 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Ranchitos Las Lomas, or 28 miles southwest of Freer, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Softball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

kcrp_20170411_2317_BR_0.5.png

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Little bit of Panhandle magic going on W of Dimmitt right now, already one short-lived tornado confirmed and looks to be cycling to the south.

Overall synoptic setup today reminded me a lot of 5/22 last year, which yielded several slow moving tornadic supercells (thermos obviously not quite up to that level).

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The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Parmer County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Northwestern Castro County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT

* At 628 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located 8 miles southwest of Easter, or 10 miles west of
  Dimmitt, moving north at 10 mph.

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