Buckeye05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Embedded circulations in the line near Wingo and Mayfield too. No TOR warnings either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 kind of a messy storm mode- and tornado reported at Hickman KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 The SPC has a slight risk for the central area of Nebraska down to near Midland/Odessa Texas today. 0-6 km shear should be at least 50 kt, as 500mb winds are at least 50kt. Shear may even up to 65 kt in some instances for storms that develop today. Medium values of LCL and storm-relative helicity may limit tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2017 Author Share Posted March 23, 2017 46 minutes ago, Chinook said: Medium values of LCL and storm-relative helicity may limit tornado potential. Large dew-point depressions as well, although an area of upper 50s dews over north-central Kansas as of 19z should advect into southern Nebraska. A locally enhanced severe threat may develop in this vicinity where the shear/instability overlay will be more favorable than points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Dodge City radar is down due to maintenance concerns. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued near Dodge City. Murphy's Law for Weather Radar: If something can go wrong, it will go wrong as severe thunderstorms are about to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Cold core in SC/SE KS tomorrow looks good enough for me to chase ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms the rest of today in far east Texas, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana. This would include the Shreveport area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Now a 10% tornado risk for east Texas and North Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Tornado Watch being considered for eastern Texas and western Louisiana. 60% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 The 12z NSSL-WRF is quite vigorous in predicting higher updraft helicity tracks into NW Louisiana this evening at 02z to 04z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 To what Chinook was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Looks like the mass of rain nw of Shreveport is taking on more cellular characteristics along with the cells east of Austin and Waco moving ne. Expect things to get more active as models indicate later in the evening as LLJ ramps up. Could get interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Thus far not looking too potent, though some ingredients are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Tor watch now issued for much of se TX till midnight....40/20 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Tor Warning East Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Definite TDS near Marshall, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 And very likely another one near Hot Springs, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 The cell crossing the TX border into LA is really interesting. You have a north-most Tornado warned portion of the cell that's directly connected to a southern flanking bow echo that's SVR warned. Usually we see 'tail end Charlie's' - but what's the name for this? I don't remember seeing this situation that frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 The bow is developing a few pretty intense circulations, it looks like we could see about 3 more tornado warnings within the next 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Not sure if someone's going to start a thread about Sunday or events into next week, maybe it would be a good idea... Anyways, 18z GFS shows pretty pretty crazy soundings near Ardmore, OK Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Just now, SluggerWx said: Not sure if someone's going to start a thread about Sunday or events into next week, maybe it would be a good idea... Anyways, 18z GFS shows pretty pretty crazy soundings near Ardmore, OK Sunday evening. Wouldn't be opposed to a thread. Sunday and Tuesday may end up being decent events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Generally positive trends on the guidance the last 24 h, for what they're worth given the baseline. I'm liking the nudge back toward a negative tilt on this wave, and the (somewhat related) more rapid moisture return Sunday afternoon. Moisture will almost certainly put the event ceiling somewhere below a multi-storm tornado outbreak, but intense supercells with some low-end evening threat are more plausible now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 experimental HRRR looks..active, you could say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 46 minutes ago, bjc0303 said: experimental HRRR looks..active, you could say. Good lord.... I'd have to figure that having six-plus discrete supercells like this would end up leading to a pretty prolific day tomorrow, especially if we pull off getting DPs of 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 I don't how much faith I have in that one run but after yesterdays runs I had lost hope. This gives me a little. Come on moisture!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 5 hours ago, bjc0303 said: experimental HRRR looks..active, you could say. Need a lot of moisture return for that to happen. That's an impressive string of pearls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Need a lot of moisture return for that to happen. That's an impressive string of pearls though. pretty good moist return forecast. SREF is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 18z run looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said: 18z run looks pretty similar. Supercell over Moore/Norman, who woulda thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 25, 2017 Share Posted March 25, 2017 Feel free to bump troll this tomorrow, but I really doubt CI will be a problem by 5-6pm. With this kind of compact, neutral/negative tilt shortwave and a generally NNW-SSE dryline, you aren't often going to lack for storms unless moisture is truly nonexistent. This is also a classic setup where the model consensus (and especially the NAM with its convective scheme) is too bearish on CI during the afternoon hours. Junky storms? Very possible, but that's probably the least exciting plausible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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