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Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion


Quincy
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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Horrible, so sad

Thanks Ginx, I agree.

40k+ homes lost.

Tens of thousands of citizens homeless and in shelters.

We have pure chaos at the moment here in Louisiana. Check out http://help.225batonrouge.com/ for place to donate, how to help, current road closure information, etc.

Also https://twitter.com/fema is good information too

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11 minutes ago, Roy9 said:

Thanks Ginx, I agree.

40k+ homes lost.

Tens of thousands of citizens homeless and in shelters.

We have pure chaos at the moment here in Louisiana. Check out http://help.225batonrouge.com/ for place to donate, how to help, current road closure information, etc.

Also https://twitter.com/fema is good information too

Thanks for the links. I will send some ching to the Red Cross

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I wouldn't be shocked when all is said and done that the Louisiana flood will end up being one of the costliest river floods in United States history. I drove home to my home in Denham Springs yesterday (I was in the 25% that didn't flood) from Port Allen and I went down a stretch of roads approximately 15 miles long that was covered with debris. Not one mile of that drive escaped the flood. I kid you not when I say I passed well over 1000 piles of debris. 

Right now estimates are between 60,000 and 140,000 homes were flooded and I think a number smack dab in the middle is a pretty good bet to be reality.

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Here's the locations of the three tornadoes in ND today, which were around 2110 to 2120z. The plot is the composite reflectivity at 2128z

9DOijdX.png&key=b2d14c6bb780003a9457ab1440ddbde98439b0321e430b4d714c5d2cb3761a5a



Noticed at work this morning that the HRRR had a pretty decent signal for longer lived supercells and marginal tornadoes today. I thought it was a little too bullish but ended up doing pretty well. Some of the couplets suggested a stronger tornado or two.


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Yup. Approx. 420pm CT I looped around and approached the cell passing by Arvilla from the NW (located at the hail report West of Emerado) and encountered 2-3" hail OTG. Continued South and caught up to see the last 5mins of the tornado before it became too obscured and I lost 4g so felt too uncomfortable to proceed.

First ever intercept so adrenaline is still flowing.

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9 hours ago, ZackH said:

Sunday is starting to look pretty fun somewhere in central or northern SD... Will just happen to be there on my way home from a camping trip...


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Labor day weekend looking like a overall wash for the majority of the area. Tonight's GFS says up to 2.5" may fall.

Fingers crossed this wet pattern persists into the cold season.

 

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For Sunday, there will be CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in the central Dakotas with 0-6km wind shear values of 30-50kt in the unstable sector east of the front.

Convection-allowing models (NAM 4km, WRF models) show convection in central and eastern North Dakota, as well as southwest South Dakota, with scattered storms in Nebraska at 00z. (7pm Sunday). I think there will be some hail/wind reports. There should be some chance for tornadoes where (and if) SRH values increase above 250m2/s2. Those areas, maybe 5% tornado chances, could be central SD to central ND.

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  • 2 weeks later...
6 hours ago, Chinook said:

Severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Norman before the Ohio State- Oklahoma game started, I believe, as people were waiting for the game to begin. (or during the game?)

Storm rolled in about 75 minutes before scheduled kickoff. Game was pushed back 'till 8 PM. Storms quickly moved east and skies were clear and sunny by 6:45 PM. Second round of storms arrived at about 2:30 AM. 

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  • 2 months later...

Next week+ are looking fairly interesting for severe weather prospects. Tomorrow 11/22 has a Slight Risk outlooked for Central and NE Texas. Wouldn't be too surprised to see a couple tornadoes (which would break a month-long streak of no reported tornadoes in the US.) After tomorrow, looks to remain active with storm systems moving across the country. Anything will be better than the extremely quiet pattern we've experienced.

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  • 1 month later...

12Z model suite is friendly to the SPC Day 5 valid Sunday. Low CAPE high shear severe is not limited to Dixie Alley at night. Recent studies show such events as frequent or even more frequent in the Plains all times of day. Sunday looks like robust speed shear with adequate directional shear. Dewpoints are just-in-time, a concern in spring but just the way it goes in winter. Figure helecity will be locally higher on the lifting warm front. If it is not going to snow for Christmas, why not severe?

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