janetjanet998 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 726 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 OKC015-031-170045- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0077.000000T0000Z-150517T0045Z/ CADDO OK-COMANCHE OK- 726 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CADDO AND NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTIES... AT 726 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MEERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 SigTor up to 5 in W Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 You can see the RFD already trying to undercut the organizing circulation near Mount Scott. Why is the cell HP despite strong UL wind profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 SigTor up to 5 in W Oklahoma I think its higher then that SPC meso page only has 2000-2500 CAPE for OKC AT 00z but on the soundings it was almost 4000 edit: but MLCAPE is about right though 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 55KT WITH SFC-3KM HELICITY AROUND 400 M2/S2. WITH NEAR 70F SFC DEW POINTS AND SBCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Large meso & wall cloud on Bob Pack's stream west of Wichita Falls. All by itself, wouldnt be surprised if it produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Saw on Twitter that RaxPol was sampling the strong-violent tornado near Elmer, Oklahoma. Can't wait to hear what it sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Large meso & wall cloud on Bob Pack's stream west of Wichita Falls. All by itself, wouldnt be surprised if it produced. If those two cells can merge there's a large gap to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Tornado watch coming for Tulsa area. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 170030Z - 170200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN/JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL KS TO WRN N TX IS PROGRESSING EWD. ACROSS ERN OK...THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN CONTAMINATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM NORMAN OK IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE WHAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ACROSS ERN OK WILL BECOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2350 J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 60 KT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. THIS VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS ACROSS CNTRL OK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK. IN ADDITION... SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED FROM GARVIN/MURRY COUNTIES NEWD TO OSAGE COUNTY OK. WITH A MINIMAL CAP NOTED IN THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING...THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE MODE FURTHER E...AS ONGOING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH TIME. REGARDLESS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AND TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/17/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Why are the storms predominantly HP today despite a lingering EML and strong UL winds at 300-200 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Why are the storms predominantly HP today despite a lingering EML and strong UL winds at 300-200 mb? LLJ is more important for keeping the cells from becoming outflow dominant. However, they still almost always become quasilinear during the late evening anyway, it's just how convection evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Bob Pack's cam...beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Chasers on TVN scrambling down I-44 to get this Wichita Falls storm. Bob Pack still has a great view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Cell NE of Abilene looks to be getting its act together and is heading towards KDYX. STP only 2 in this area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Two funnels, possibly multi-vortex, on Bob Pack's cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Upstream convection in KS has definitely prevented the LLJ from strengthening as much as earlier models indicated by and after 00Z. 12Z GFS showed 40-45 kt at 850 mb by 00Z, with strong 10m response, when the actual winds are much weaker. Is that why cells have been HP in nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Upstream convection in KS has definitely prevented the LLJ from strengthening as much as earlier models indicated by and after 00Z. 12Z GFS showed 40-45 kt at 850 mb by 00Z, with strong 10m response, when the actual winds are much weaker. Is that why cells have been HP in nature? The 00z OUN observed sounding had 40kt winds at 850. Not sure what you're talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Pretty amazing structure on Dave Drummond's cam just north of Wichita Falls, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 The 00z OUN observed sounding had 40kt winds at 850. Not sure what you're talking about... I'm talking about N TX/S OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 tornado reported near Geronimo, OK by emergency manager (heard this on channel 9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 I'm talking about N TX/S OK. Your post made no mention of location, in fact the only location you mentioned was KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 A friend just texted me that they're sounding the sirens in Chickasha, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Ugh...Weather Channel is tweeting that tornadic storms are moving into OKC. Closest tornado warning about 40 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 OKC metro looks in good shape as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Ugh...Weather Channel is tweeting that tornadic storms are moving into OKC. Closest tornado warning about 40 miles away. that's not good. but worst part about that is.... if you really trace the path of this particular cell and look at it's current trajectory, I am praying something changes. because the actual cities in that storms future path isn't Oklahoma City, but Norman and Moore, OK. this is all they need right now and i hope to god that I am wrong about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Interesting event. South (or south of south) play ftw this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Interesting event. South (or south of south) play ftw this year. Been a long time since things were this active in OK and TX. Presently looks more like a svr bow situation in the line for OKC metro the way things are shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Ugh...Weather Channel is tweeting that tornadic storms are moving into OKC. Closest tornado warning about 40 miles away.TWC is often a joke on Twitter. They have no wx morals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Been a long time since things were this active in OK and TX. Presently looks more like a svr bow situation in the line for OKC metro the way things are shaping up.Yeah the Red River is like a magnet of late. Hope we can shift north of there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 TWC is often a joke on Twitter. They have no wx morals. They tend to hype stuff up just for ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 New TW east of OKC, moving NE, rotation increasing south of Shawnee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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