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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Yes if that Rossby wave exists it pushes the Kelvin wave west . As per WSI, so there is a other spike in the 3.4 region as per WSI ,and as per the guidance.

It is why WSI thinks the winter time forcing resembles a "modoki " type forcing.

Any questions .. refer them to Dr Ventrice, as he agrees with the westward forcing as has been opined here by many of us as per the guidance. (MINUS THE CFS of course ).

I think so. It looks legit to me. The wwb looks weaker to me

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Yes if that Rossby wave exists it pushes the Kelvin wave west . As per WSI, so there is another spike in the 3.4 region as per WSI ,and as per the guidance.

It is why WSI thinks the winter time forcing resembles a "modoki " type forcing.

Any questions .. refer them to Dr Ventrice, as he agrees with the westward forcing that has been opined here by many of us as per the guidance. (MINUS THE CFS of course ).

It's actually hilarious JB uses the selective CFS runs to show a region 3.4 drop he wants, but says to ignore the blowtorch winter the seasonal shows

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I think I know the answer, but I'll ask just in case; in what way? That's pretty far east for a WWB isn't it? 

 

BTW this is what it looks like on earth.nullschool. This is a couple days before the peak of westerlies

 

High-end Ninos often feature WWBs that penetrate further east. It really has to do with the eastern extent of the warm pool. The further it advances, the more likely WWBs are to develop and (in general) the stronger they are.

 

'97, for instance, had multiple WWBs that occurred much further east than normal (June, October and November in particular). There's some good ensemble support for just such a large event upcoming in a week or so, which is about right timing wise, since we're heading into the climatologically favored fall season.

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I think so. It looks legit to me. The wwb looks weaker to me

Weaker, sure... but we're comparing it to a strong WWB. It's still a decently strong WWB.

 

High-end Ninos often feature WWBs that penetrate further east. It really has to do with the eastern extent of the warm pool. The further it advances, the more likely WWBs are to develop and (in general) the stronger they are.

 

'97, for instance, had multiple WWBs that occurred much further east than normal (June, October and November in particular). There's some good ensemble support for just such a large event upcoming in a week or so, which is about right timing wise, since we're heading into the climatologically favored fall season.

Thanks for the response

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It's actually hilarious JB uses the selective CFS runs to show a region 3.4 drop he wants, but says to ignore the blowtorch winter the seasonal shows

We have a vendor thread for this stuff . Do not come into this ENSO thread and muddy it up with JB talk.

The use of WSI was to point out the possible coming spike in R 3.4 .

We know you didn't like his MJO idea , his use of the 02/03 analog and now his non winter torch idea.

Thats a lot of specificity for a guy who doesn't like/read the forecaster.

Keep it ENSO related or you derail the discussion .

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There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west  . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well.

 

sstaanim.gif

The warmest spread continues out near the DL.

 

ssttlon5_c(1).gif

sstanim.gif

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There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west  . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well.

 

sstaanim.gif

The warmest spread continues out near the DL.

 

ssttlon5_c(1).gif

sstanim.gif

Textbook basin wide event as ever you're going to see. Where the best forcing sets up is the question. Hope it sets up by the dateline like most models depict for the positioning will have a HUGE impact this winter.

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On balance the shift has been west . The greater warmth since July has spread West not East  R 1.2 Since July has gone from 2.7- 2.2- 1.9- 2.2- 2.6 .

 

While R 3 , R3.4 , R 4 have steadily climbed 

post-7472-0-22832600-1443192450_thumb.gi

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It's going to be an interior winter, coast may be toast in terms of lack of cold and snow!

I don't think anyone is toast yet...but that is disconcerting.

That being said, it's important not to be too reactionary, either.

Wait and see...

 

But this was a victory for the east-crowd.

Make no mistake about it....how large remains to be seen.

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Temporary or not, the models missed the slight shift east since August.

Greatest subsurface anomalies moved from 130W in August to 115W

in September.

The models have been verifying best in Nino 3 and 3.4. But Nino 4 is running

cooler than forecast and 1+2 warmer.

Evolution over the next few months will be key in determining where the best

forcing sets up later in the fall into the winter.

Screen shot 2015-09-21 at 12.33.31 PM.png

This isn't real?

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There was DEF a tick up last week in 1.2 , but overall the core strength continues to expand west  . The expansion in the 3 and 3.4 region have been modeled well.

 

sstaanim.gif

The warmest spread continues out near the DL.

 

 

The first loop you posted only goes out to the 16th. That's a long time ago for the topic on hand... lots has changed since then. It looks like Nino 4 and possibly 3.4 are gonna cool with the next weekly update. The 2-2.5C contour around 150W has cooled or shifted east.

 

post-13588-0-06022700-1443193543_thumb.p

post-13588-0-91043000-1443193556_thumb.p

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WSI sees the greatest rise going forward in the 3.4 region ( that part was not highlighted above ) .  So no one discounts the spike over the past 2 weeks in the 1.2 Region however  this NINO went basin wide in July and R4 is  close to record levels .

All the major warning is WEST OF 90 here . 

post-7472-0-55348200-1443193544_thumb.pn

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WSI sees the greatest rise going forward in the 3.4 region ( that part was not highlighted above ) . So no one discounts the spike over the past 2 weeks in the 1.2 Region however this NINO went basin wide in July and R4 is close to record levels .

All the major warning is WEST OF 90 here .

The bottom is cut off. The greatest anomalies have shifted east.

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Also according to Ventrice , 

 

Most notably, there is a chance that an oceanic Rossby wave has formed off the west coast of South America. If this is the case, it could work against the Kelvin waves described above, moving warm waters westward. In theory, this could create what we call a Modoki-type El Nino, in which the warming takes place mostly in the central Pacific with cooling in the far eastern Pacific near South America.

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The bottom is cut off. The greatest anomalies have shifted east.

All the 2.5C anomalies are W of 100  STILL R 3 and R 3.4 . Even through  the  end of that Sept  map .

 

I saw the spike in the  shallow 1.2 region  it did back up from 1.7 to 2.6 ,  R 1.2  is the most Volatile and  that spike was not seen by the models  however this continues it`s spread west as R 3 - 3.4 -4 have risen each through Sep .

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If nino 3 smokes and if we fall short of the 1 2 record in nov 1997 does it really even matter?

 

 

I think we are just trying to figure out where the best forcing occurs . Pretty much where we all drew our lines in the sand .

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All the 2.5C anomalies are W of 100 STILL R 3 and R 3.4 . Even through the end of that Sept map .

I saw the spike in the shallow 1.2 region it did back up from 1.7 to 2.6 , R 1 is the most Volatile and that spike was not seen by the models however this continues it`s spread west as R 3 - 3.4 -4 have risen each through Sep .

Theres 4c showing up between 90 and 110w using more current products. That's all for all intents and purposes the epac. It's not just about 1 2. You're making it about that. 4 hasn't warmed in the past 2 months whatsoever.

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Theres 4c showing up between 90 and 110w using more current products. That's all for all intents and purposes the epac. It's not just about 1 2. You're making it about that. 4 hasn't warmed in the past 2 months whatsoever.

No I am making it about 3 and 3.4 

 

I allude to 4 because it `s close to record levels 

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All of the favorable models and met conjecture are great, but it's almost to the point where it actually has to materialize.

I'm not saying that will not happen, but one needs to start considering it imho.

 

I don't want to see Ventrice tweets at this point, but rather lighter shades of red in the 1+2 regions.

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No I am making it about 3 and 3.4

I allude to 4 because it `s close to record levels

I'm not so sure about that. The greatest anomalies have shifted east through 3.4 and 3 look at the link. You immediately started talking about the changibility in 1 2.

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I'm not so sure about that. The greatest anomalies have shifted east through 3.4 and 3 look at the link. You immediately started talking about the changibility in 1 2.

 

I have been talking about a move WEST since  MAY . 

 

 

02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0

09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0

16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1

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