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snowman19

Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

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Nino 1+2 had the largest increase on the week and the other areas heave held nearly steady.

26AUG2015 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.1

02SEP2015 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.0

09SEP2015 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.0

16SEP2015 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.1

Looks temporary that spike

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Looks a lot more east based than previously with 1+2 and 3 having the highest anomalies. Based on what I've read, I assume it's temporary.

3 of the 4 regions increased with the greatest amomalies between 95 and 145 so it is now and has been a basin wide NINO

R4 is near record levels and the area of warmth In the 1.2 region is small in comparison to the rest of the basin .

This is still basin wide event and it's major focus of AN anomalies sit in the 3 and 3.4 region.

That is a big weekly spike in the 1.2 region , not seen by the models but the overall genesis is west and one can see that on any SST PAC water profile .

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The weekly ENSO data showed that the Region 1+2 anomaly rebounded strongly to +2.6°C for the week centered around 9/16. This increase was well-modeled by one recent run of the CFSv2.

 

CFSv209112015.jpg

 

The fairly notable July-August monthly decline is inconsistent with the strong El Niño events that wound up with the greatest warm anomalies centered around Region 1+2 (ERSSTv4).

 

ENSOR1_209212015.jpg

 

As Region 1+2 is very volatile, in part, due to its proximity to the South American land mass, it's still premature to assume that the large increase indicates an East-centered El Niño event. One will still need to wait until mid- or late-October to be sure.

 

For now, I still believe this will be a basin-wide event, not an East-oriented one.

 

What could change my thinking is a September increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly to around +2.0°C followed by an additional increase in the October anomaly beyond the +2.23°C monthly peak to date (July).

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The weekly ENSO data showed that the Region 1+2 anomaly rebounded strongly to +2.6°C for the week centered around 9/16. This increase was well-modeled by one recent run of the CFSv2.

 

CFSv209112015.jpg

 

The fairly notable July-August monthly decline is inconsistent with the strong El Niño events that wound up with the greatest warm anomalies centered around Region 1+2 (ERSSTv4).

 

ENSOR1_209212015.jpg

 

As Region 1+2 is very volatile, in part, due to its proximity to the South American land mass, it's still premature to assume that the large increase indicates an East-centered El Niño event. One will still need to wait until mid- or late-October to be sure.

 

For now, I still believe this will be a basin-wide event, not an East-oriented one.

 

What could change my thinking is a September increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly to around +2.0°C followed by an additional increase in the October anomaly beyond the +2.23°C monthly peak to date (July).

 

Don, I looked back a few pages and only saw this forecast . Looks like they all missed that spike .

Did the CFS see it ? Maybe i missed it . 

But check out the difference near the coast from Sept 7 to Sept 14 to  Sept 21 . So my thinking is you may see a decline there in the next  week or 2 if If those are right . 

post-7472-0-25008000-1442675973.png

 

post-13588-0-19169500-1441650007.gif

post-7472-0-96467800-1442844669_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-31235600-1442844739_thumb.pn

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Don, I looked back a few pages and see this  and only saw this forecast . Looks like they all missed that spike .

Did the CFS see it ? Maybe i missed it . 

But check out the difference near the coast from Sept 7 to Sept 14 to  Sept 21 . So my thinking is you may see a decline there in the next  week or 2 if If those are right .

 

The cluster of recent CFSv2 ensemble members had the spike for a few days. The broader average of ensemble members, which includes the earlier runs didn't show the recent sharp increase.

 

Like you, I believe that the most recent increase in the Region 1+2 anomalies is a transitory one. My guess remains that the secondary peak will wind up lower than the initial one with the July figures of +2.87°C (OISSTv2) and +2.23°C (ERSSTv4) remaining unsurpassed during the current ENSO event. The charts you posted add confidence to the idea that there will be some cooling in weeks ahead.

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strongest nino's using the JMA data...It was updated to +20...tied for fifth warmest ever...

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

1997-98...+33

1982-83...+28

1888-89...+23

1877-78...+22

1972-73...+20

2015-16...+20

1930-31...+19

1896-97...+18

1899-00...+16

1925-26...+16

1905-06...+15

2009-10...+14... + 3 other years...

last year the JMA hit +10 before weakening....

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1997 at this time versus 2015:.

 

 

One of the key differences which I've been noting for awhile is the SSTA profile around Australia / SW Tropical Pacific. The limited cooling there will aid in preventing frequent / monster WWB's from converting this ENSO event into an east-based one.

 

One of the reasons why region 1+2 is so volatile is b/c of: [A] It's mean temperatures are cooler than any other ENSO region, and thus less energy is required to induce warming. Think of a location like Houston Texas - it's difficult to have significant positive departures in July because the normals are already very warm. Similarly, region 4 is the warmest of the ENSO regions relative to normal, and so, departures of +1c are very impressive; It's location adjacent to the South American coastline permits higher variance due to upwelling episodes.

anomnight.9.23.1997.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

anomnight.9.21.2015.gif

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1997 at this time versus 2015:.

One of the key differences which I've been noting for awhile is the SSTA profile around Australia / SW Tropical Pacific. The limited cooling there will aid in preventing frequent / monster WWB's from converting this ENSO event into an east-based one.

One of the reasons why region 1+2 is so volatile is b/c of: [A] It's mean temperatures are cooler than any other ENSO region, and thus less energy is required to induce warming. Think of a location like Houston Texas - it's difficult to have significant positive departures in July because the normal are already very warm. Similarly, region 4 is the warmest of the ENSO regions relative to normal, and so, departures of +1c are very impressive; It's location adjacent to the South American coastline permits higher variance due to upwelling episodes.

anomnight.9.23.1997.gif

anomnight.9.21.2015.gif

While the SSTS aren't as cold as 1997 around Indonesia, they have cooled enough to allow for us to go into a strong positive IOD phase and allow for continued WWBs and -SOI. There is yet another strong WWB pushing east from the dateline right now, which should trigger a downwelling kelvin wave and another round of warming

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1997 at this time versus 2015:.

 

 

One of the key differences which I've been noting for awhile is the SSTA profile around Australia / SW Tropical Pacific. The limited cooling there will aid in preventing frequent / monster WWB's from converting this ENSO event into an east-based one.

 

One of the reasons why region 1+2 is so volatile is b/c of: [A] It's mean temperatures are cooler than any other ENSO region, and thus less energy is required to induce warming. Think of a location like Houston Texas - it's difficult to have significant positive departures in July because the normals are already very warm. Similarly, region 4 is the warmest of the ENSO regions relative to normal, and so, departures of +1c are very impressive; It's location adjacent to the South American coastline permits higher variance due to upwelling episodes.

anomnight.9.23.1997.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

anomnight.9.21.2015.gif

 

 

And you see the opposite in R4 . Since it is out near the dateline and it is where the warmest waters reside , it take so much more energy for that region to warm  , that`s why you see the 1.1 in R4  is close to record levels for this time of the year .

 

So as the some of the models did forecast plus 2 or 3 ( too warm ) in it`s  R4 guidance , it was clearly responding to seeing all that heat moving west throughout this event . 

 

That solidified the basin wide argument from early on . 

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Recent CFSv2 ensemble runs have been showing a more gradual increase in the ENSO Region 4 anomalies than the ensemble mean, which includes earlier runs. The more gradual increase is a better fit with what has typically happened during strong El Niño events. It is also a better fit with what has recently been occurring.

 

The August 2015 value of +0.79°C (ERSSTv4) ranked highest on record for August. The previous record was +0.76°C in 1994. The September record is +0.75°C (2004) and the October record is +1.00°C (2009).

 

The highest monthly anomalies on record are as follows:

 

1. +1.17°C, November 2009

2. +1.15°C, December 2009

3. +1.05°C, January 2010

4. +1.02°C, April 2015

5. +1.00°C, October 2009

 

Even with a more gradual increase in Region 4 anomalies, the potential exists for those anomalies to approach or even exceed +1.00°C in the months ahead.

 

ENSOR409222015.jpg

 

ENSOR409222015_2.jpg

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So the million dollar question is how warm does R4 need to get when R3 and 3.4

are this warm in order to shift the forcing from R3 and 3.4 out to R4 during the winter?

Here are the actual SSTs. I don`t think that alone moves the forcing out near the DL as this where the greatest always is .

But the guidance sees it and I would only guess the warmer R4 gets in relation to the normals , it could help .

post-7472-0-63259000-1442932700_thumb.pn

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So the million dollar question is how warm does R4 need to get when R3 and 3.4 

are this warm in order to shift the forcing from R3 and 3.4 out to R4 during the winter?

One thing CFS is good for is getting an idea of when region 4 is too "cool" to have the bulk of the forcing. It has forcing in region 3.4 with Nino 4 at 1.4C... so it has to be somewhere between that and what JAMSTEC has (rough estimate is 2C)

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We are now in a very strong +IOD phase, continuing to rise. SSTS continue to cool big time around Indonesia and Australia. This setup is extremely favorable for continued WWBs and -SOI. https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/646114323069190144

You got that right.

5xWEiN7.gif

Xh5WZ0X.jpg

bIntUcK.jpg

That isn't the kind of WWB you get out by the dateline.

But considering how warm the sub surface is and surface already we should see a big uptick along the SA coast.

And warning all the way back to enso 4.

EPAC ssta are already warmer than the 1997/98 enso peak.

nligfEg.jpg

GzSeQro.jpg

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You got that right.

5xWEiN7.gif

Xh5WZ0X.jpg

bIntUcK.jpg

That isn't the kind of WWB you get out by the dateline.

But considering how warm the sub surface is and surface already we should see a big uptick along the SA coast.

And warning all the way back to enso 4.

EPAC ssta are already warmer than the 1997/98 enso peak.

nligfEg.jpg

GzSeQro.jpg

 

 

Of course EPAC SST's are warmer; we have a very strongly positive PDO and SST's are warmer to the north of the ENSO regions. The actual ENSO regions; however, are still less warm than 1997.

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There is a confirmed coastal station reading of +5.8C in Nino region 1+2 just off the north Peruvian coast today. https://twitter.com/strawn_04/status/646678554063667200

 

 

 

And if there was a station located in that small cold pocket to the west of the South American (indicated by the blue) coast, it would show below normal temperature anomalies. This is why the entire region 1+2 - and other ENSO regions - are fairly expansive in coverage, because there will be localized pockets of anomalously cool or warm readings depending upon the mesoscale wind pattern.

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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And if there was a station located in that small cold pocket to the west of the South American (indicated by the blue) coast, it would show below normal temperature anomalies. This is why the entire region 1+2 - and other ENSO regions - are fairly expansive in coverage, because there will be localized pockets of anomalously cool or warm readings depending upon the mesoscale wind pattern.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Agreed, but to see even localized sst anomalies of almost +6C? Very impressive

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Well...

That could be a game changer.

We will see.

 

I think I know the answer, but I'll ask just in case; in what way? That's pretty far east for a WWB isn't it? 

 

BTW this is what it looks like on earth.nullschool. This is a couple days before the peak of westerlies

Tu2QScl.png

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Sorry. Couldn't see it well. Looks like we could see a decent west to eastward push.

Yes it's a WWB and it's going to continue to warm regions 3 and 1+2

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Ehh yes but the way wsi sounds, the rossby wave means business

Yes if that Rossby wave exists it pushes the Kelvin wave west . As per WSI, so there is another spike in the 3.4 region as per WSI ,and as per the guidance.

It is why WSI thinks the winter time forcing resembles a "modoki " type forcing.

Any questions .. refer them to Dr Ventrice, as he agrees with the westward forcing that has been opined here by many of us as per the guidance. (MINUS THE CFS of course ).

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