April/May Pattern Discussion

[ChattChaser]

I'd say its probably time to turn attention to the Saturday through Tuesday time frame. Worthy of it's own thread IMO

[jaxjagman]

I'd say its probably time to turn attention to the Saturday through Tuesday time frame. Worthy of it's own thread IMO

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46270-april-24-25-severe-storm-thread/

[Stovepipe]

So for tomorrow morning the hi-res NAM has a surface temp of 37, dew point of 27, and wind at 5 mph here.  NWS is mentioning possible patchy frost.  RAP has the dew points in the teens today.  Do y'all think frost is likely given that setup?  Unless something changes by this evening, I guess I'm going to try to cover tomatoes and basil up.  What a pain that will be.

[Mr Bob]

So for tomorrow morning the hi-res NAM has a surface temp of 37, dew point of 27, and wind at 5 mph here.  NWS is mentioning possible patchy frost.  RAP has the dew points in the teens today.  Do y'all think frost is likely given that setup?  Unless something changes by this evening, I guess I'm going to try to cover tomatoes and basil up.  What a pain that will be.

While I think you will be okay...you might want to take the better safe than sorry approach.

[ladyjmayo]

I'm glad mine are still incubating in the coldframe!

[John1122]

Frost and freeze advisories abound. Was 34 at the house this morning. Upper 20s lower 30s possible tonight. I am good though, nothing planted that will be hurt. I always follow the no planting til the mountain top is green rule. 

[Stovepipe]

I bottomed out at 43 this morning, no frost.  Glad I covered the plants and had peace of mind though.

[ladyjmayo]

I bottomed out at 43 this morning, no frost.  Glad I covered the plants and had peace of mind though.

 

[dwagner88]

Had 39 this morning. No frost, but I was very surprised to hit the 30's.

[Stovepipe]

Looks like another frost threat for Friday night.  Maybe even sooner. 

[John1122]

It was 35 and frosty here this morning. Still have tomatoes waiting for planting.

[jaxjagman]

Looks like another frost threat for Friday night.  Maybe even sooner. 

Maybe the end of the cold after that.Looks like a ridge building in temps going close to climo.Even showing some lows in the 60's next week.Looks boring though the next several days for us in the Valley

[Stovepipe]

The GFS has been consistent with showing mid to low 30s for tonight all week.  The NAM is at 41.  NWS seems to be going with MOS at 47.  The GFS has been like this all spring for the central valley, as much as 10 degrees too cold right up to the last minute.  As a gardener this has been giving me fits.  Next season I'm keeping my plants in a hoop house until May. 

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

[JayCee]

This is been a rough April as far as cool weather goes.  My folks in southeast KY have had frosts every week, up until a few days ago.  Some of the trees have been nipped.

 

Third spring in a row with pretty chilly temps in March and April. 

 

Starting this weekend, we'll see a complete shift in the pattern with a ridge developing over the Southeast, keeping the stormy weather in the Plains next week.  Much warmer is welcome--but a bit boring with no storms.  No more boring than April has been, I reckon.  At the very least, we'll finally have some 80's. 

[jaxjagman]

 

This is been a rough April as far as cool weather goes.  My folks in southeast KY have had frosts every week, up until a few days ago.  Some of the trees have been nipped.

 

Third spring in a row with pretty chilly temps in March and April. 

 

Starting this weekend, we'll see a complete shift in the pattern with a ridge developing over the Southeast, keeping the stormy weather in the Plains next week.  Much warmer is welcome--but a bit boring with no storms.  No more boring than April has been, I reckon.  At the very least, we'll finally have some 80's. 

 

yup,weather pattern looks boring.Finally see some MUCape return next weekend,no shear.Like you stated, the severe threat should be in the plains 

[JayCee]

yup,weather pattern looks boring.Finally see some MUCape return next weekend,no shear.Like you stated, the severe threat should be in the plains 

Hopefully, it's a temporary lull as the pattern changes from cool to warm.  It appears toward next weekend, and the week afterward, the storminess might shift eastward into our neck of the woods.  After a week of dry weather, we'll need some rain by then.

[nrgjeff]

Early next week is still the next decent chance of rain. Hopefully keep Mother's Day nice, with a chance of storms Monday. Mid South could see some strong storms Monday if 12Z runs today indicate a shift in trend. Better mid-level energy is shown with a punch into the Mid Mississippi Valley at 500/700 mb. However the low level jet is more up in Illinois and the upper level jet stream is past, kind of like the previous enhanced risk of a bust (Apr 25 Tenn side). Veer-back is noted too above 500 mb. That's all day 8 models though at least something to talk about, lol!

[jaxjagman]

 

Been pretty dry lately.Decent chance anyways we get a little bit the next few days

[LithiaWx]

Current Climate Summary Maps Powered by ACIS High Plains Regional Climate Center.png

 

Been pretty dry lately.Decent chance anyways we get a little bit the next few days

 

Very little rain here the last 2-3 weeks.  It's like someone flipped a switch and turned off the abundant spring rains I've been enjoying.

[nrgjeff]

West troughs keep tear dropping in the Plains. Makes for great upslope chase days, and a dry Southeast US. SER may stick around another couple weeks. Will be my first watering of the lawn since 2012.

[jaxjagman]

West troughs keep tear dropping in the Plains. Makes for great upslope chase days, and a dry Southeast US. SER may stick around another couple weeks. Will be my first watering of the lawn since 2012.

Weeklies show a change in the pattern anyways.Finally kicks out the ridge in a couple weeks like you said

[LithiaWx]

Officially driest May to date for mby according to the NWS. I'm ready for my super Nino rains please. Grass and trees are starting to show stress from the lack of water in a significant way.

[JayCee]

I finally got a good soaking here northeast of Sevierville, TN.  Yesterday, at about 6 p.m. the sky opened up big time, and 1.3" fell in just about an hour.  A much needed downpour.  However, from what I saw on radar, it was pretty isolated.  We really need a big change in the overall pattern for everyone to start seeing some significant rains. 

[WestTennWX]

Over 4 inches of rain here in Obion County over the past 24 hrs, I took this photo yesterday around noon- numerous roads were closed here in the Union City area. FFW til 6 pm tomorrow night. 

[kperk014]

East of Florence. Good thing some of the other ingredients weren't present!

 

 

 

 

 

[1234snow]

Some great pictures! No rain at all here this weekend. No rain for at least a week.

[John1122]

Impressive flooding and cloud pictures guys!

 

I've managed to pick up 1.4 inches of rain the last several days. Seems like the Northern Plateau has been getting the most rain in Eastern Tennessee outside of the heavy storm over Sevier the other day.

[LithiaWx]

Awesome picture!!!

 

Ask and you shall receive I guess - torrential downpours both today and yesterday putting an end to the string of nearly no rain at like 17 days.