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April 6-10th Severe Potential


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Some mixed signals on storm mode and coverage, but the high-res models seem to be fairly consistent with pegging the area on either side of a Ponca City to Arkansas City line. A bit more unclear how western OK pans out, but could be good if the environment does not get contaminated and chaser convergence won't be much of a problem. 

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A
COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AN EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE/WHEN MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY INCREASINGLY PHASE
WITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...MORE
SUBSTANTIVE DEEPENING OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...EMERGING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED ACROSS AND EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
MODERATELY STRONG WITH LOWEST PRESSURES AT OR BELOW 1000 MB. A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE A
WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE COLD AIR
REMAINS DAMMED TO THE EAST OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO
THE APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO THE EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
STRONG...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A
NUMBER OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING
FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...
MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DEEPER/RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AND CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
BE ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THURSDAY...IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS...AMONG
OTHERS...MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS TO A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STILL...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR...INCLUDING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KT SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DURING THE DAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD YIELD
SCATTERED AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE AREAS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COULD DEVELOP NEAR
THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS CONCERNING COVERAGE
AND AREA TO SUPPORT 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

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ICT-SV-28:

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
 
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
 
* AT 156 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARDY...OR
  16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...PING PONG SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 
 
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEDAN...CEDAR VALE...PERU...HALE AND MAPLE CITY. 
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In an area of enhanced low level shear as well.

And trained weather spotters have reported up to baseball sized hail with that storm. EDIT: Hail to 4" in diameter on that storm near Sullivan, MO. Holy cow!

 

Meanwhile, 80 mph winds by a spotter on the Sedan, KS storm. 

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Anybody know why a severe watch just went out for the 15% tor area??

 

It only runs until 7pm CDT. I imagine they'll issue a new Tornado Watch and overlap it with the ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch at that time.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS NOW OVER NE OK/S CNTRL KS FORMED IN  

ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE...NE-MOVING UPR IMPULSE. THE STORMS  

SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS  

THE UPR FEATURE CONTINUES NEWD AND STORM COLD POOLS ENLARGE/MERGE.  

19Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE WELL-SAMPLED THE DOWNSTREAM  

ENVIRONMENT...WHERE ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE  

LOW-LVL BUOYANCY. 40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED  

STORMS/SUPERCELLS. VEERED LOW-LVL WINDS AND EXPECTED FAIRLY  

SUBSTANTIAL STORM OUTFLOW SUGGEST THAT BROKEN LINES/CLUSTERS WITH  

EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE...WITH AN  

ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A  

TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE GIVEN  

EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLJ /REF SWODY1/. THIS MAY REQUIRE THAT  

PARTS OF THE WW BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO BEFORE THAT TIME.  

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