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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread


Eastatlwx

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RAH took away the dangling carrot...

 

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE.
THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

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Looks like tomorrow night is going to feature a pretty severe freeze here.  A low of 22 is not for the faint of heart.  Nice day today... 44/-RN at the moment. :lol:

 

I'm actually rooting for this.  Those hateful whirling seed pods are just coming out on my maples.  They are green and only about a quarter inch long.   Every now and then we get a year where they get Barney Fifed(nipped in the bud).  22º at this point might do it.  It makes up for the years when I have to get them off of my patio with a snow shovel.  The only other thing I have blooming are some daffodils. A couple of hours of 22º won't faze them.

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I'm actually rooting for this.  Those hateful whirling seed pods are just coming out on my maples.  They are green and only about a quarter inch long.   Every now and then we get a year where they get Barney Fifed(nipped in the bud).  22º at this point might do it.  It makes up for the years when I have to get them off of my patio with a snow shovel.  The only other thing I have blooming are some daffodils. A couple of hours of 22º won't faze them.

 

Looks like we're going to get it.  32 as of 11 PM, so mid-20s looks likely now.

 

Apparently, RAH doesn't start Frost/Freeze Warnings in our area until April 5th based on today's AFD, so no advisories/warnings have been posted.

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Almost 3" inches below normal for the month and year at GSP ! And March is one of the wettest months! Not a great start to the year, precip wise and where's the niño!? Or it's effects!?

Looks like we have some good shots of rain coming up. Some on Thursday but a good slug on Saturday and another round on next Monday. If we get 3 good rain shots in about a week, that will cut into that total. 

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looking at the 12z GFS, I don't see any freezing temps (especially outside the mountains) for the next couple of weeks. (so) There is a good chance that this past weekend's freeze is the last for the year.

Had pretty heavy frost this a.m. Winds died down late just in time. In town though it was a nada. Easy to radiate with these low dps this time of year under right circumstances, espeacilly out away from town. But your probably right in regards to hard freeze.
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was noticing weird looking slug of moisture last few days upstream that shows advancing Friday but disappears Sat.  Then I read this in Peachtree City AFD

BOTH GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW

END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE LATE SAT AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA...ANY SATURATION

OF THE COLUMN WOULD KEEP TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT

FORECAST AS A RESULT OF ANY PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER. ITS A

GOOD THING WE ARE IN LATE MARCH AFTER LOOKING AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS

FOR SATURDAY.

 

So it makes me wonder if we might see some kind of surprise in extreme N. Ga Mtns higher elevations saturday.  

 Right now I'm looking at training thunderstorm coming out of the northwest, one right after the other.  I'm used to seeing the lines tilted all the way the other way.  For years now they tilt from the southwest to the northeast and only train for an hour or so as they move by, but this train just keeps coming head on.  I think that line is so confused it'll have a hard time getting orientated... I'm just getting bombed with rain and thunderstorms hard on each others heels.  Tony

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326 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A FROST

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR

EDGECOMBE...WILSON...WAYNE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES.

* TEMPERATURE...MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED LIGHT FROST WILL DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE

PLANTS...ESPECIALLY NEWLY GERMINATED SEEDLINGS.

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It has begun, I have also attached a lightning picture I took in GA the other day chasing.

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED

TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER

OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD AREA OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS CONUS WITH TWO

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS

VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO BUT A COLD

FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD ACROSS LOWER MI...IL AND MO BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT ARE FORECAST TO STALL AND BECOME

QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN MO. TO THE W...A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL

MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY WITH A SFC LOW

DEVELOPING OVER SRN CO BY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT

EWD ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY 12Z FRI AND INTERACT

WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER SRN MO.

AHEAD OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE

60S F WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH 60S AS FAR N AS SRN

KS INTO SRN INDIANA. THIS WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY

BENEATH AMPLE SHEAR PROFILES WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH

THE PERIOD.

...MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD

FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE ACROSS IL AND MO WITH SOME MARGINAL

WIND/HAIL THREAT ONGOING. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE LATER IN THE

AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE E OVER ACROSS SRN

IL...INDIANA...WRN KY AND SERN MO. A REJUVENATION OF STORMS IS

LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL

BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW.

Day 2:

SPC AC 020558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1258 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY AREA SWWD

ACROSS NRN MS/NWRN AR/SERN AR/NERN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD

INTO E TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD

TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX...

...SUMMARY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE

WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

WHILE A GULF OF AK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SSEWD ALONG THE BC COAST

AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PAC NW...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO

CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA DAY 2/FRI./

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND

WSWWD INTO OK/TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE TN/MID AND

LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS WITH TIME. BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEPENING LOW OVER SRN NEW

ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHILE

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.

...MID OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/SABINE VALLEYS...

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE

COLD FRONT...FROM THE OZARKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SOME

LINGERING SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY

ACROSS THE OZARKS AREA.

MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SOME

HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODERATE

DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD FUEL EVENTUAL/VIGOROUS STORM

DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY

WITHIN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM WRN KY SWWD TO NRN LA. INITIAL STORMS

WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN WEAKLY VEERING/INCREASING

FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH

TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR

EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS

ARE EXPECTED. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR EVENT

WILL SUPPORT ONGOING DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH HEATING MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND THUS

INSTABILITY LIKELY WEAKER...LOWER/LESS WIDESPREAD RISK FOR HAIL/WIND

IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE ACROSS SERN/S TX...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN

ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY -- WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT

REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF THIS REGION AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR

CAPPING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THUS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.

STILL...CAPE/SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND

ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WITH ANY CELL WHICH COULD BECOME EVOLVE

ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2015

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post-12398-0-51306700-1427974324_thumb.j

post-12398-0-84744200-1427974397_thumb.j

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