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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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the statement was you can't have an epic winter and a warm spring, tell that to 58.83,94,11,13

 

 

I agree that warm springs can happen after big winters...they aren't really correlated.

 

Even our warm springs have garbage periods though.

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Average highs don't break 60 for ORH/BOS until May (maybe last 3 days of April for BOS)...so if you are scoffing at highs in the 50s...or even 40s in April, then you need to either move, or learn climo and expect it.

May gets better, but it's still quite common to get highs in the 50s with a few 40s mixed in.

There's a reason that just about every weather-savvy person in New England talks about how miserable our springs often are.

I don't follow .. It's common to have highs in the 40's and 50's in May. It's also common to have highs in the 80's and 90's in May . May is not known as or thought of in any circles as a cool weather month. Most folks expect many nice warm sunny days in May and typically that is what we get
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when looking at phasing storms of the past there are many similarities to some pretty potent systems. Of course being out of cold season yields different outcomes but, Feb 58, April 2006, March 58 had similar setups.

more and more convinced big doings incoming. Very familiar evolutions progged to raging storms of the past.
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At least in the summer, it gets mor einteresting...we have temp talk, dewpoint talk, and faux severe wx.

 

I realize you are in some degree being hyperbolic/sarcastic here... 

 

But we have large hail, people and structures hurt by tornadoes, and the occasional hurricane... in reality. 

 

We just don't get them as often as in the Plains, agreed. But we get them enough, and I usual film one solid stately mesocyclone a summer.  It's not the total downer waste that some people cast the throw-hands attitude about - 

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I don't follow .. It's common to have highs in the 40's and 50's in May. It's also common to have highs in the 80's and 90's in May . May is not known as or thought of in any circles as a cool weather month. Most folks expect many nice warm sunny days in May and typically that is what we get

 

If you run a histogram of the high temps in mid-May, 40s/50s are about as twice as likely as 80s/90s in the elevated interior...you are typically too extreme once again with our climo. You should really learn climo before posting about it.

 

You might get better numbers than that in Hartford, closer to a 50/50 split...but not for your backyard or most other people to the east of the CT River Valley.

 

 

Wait until after week 2 in May, and you increase your chances of 80s.

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If you run a histogram of the high temps in mid-May, 40s/50s are about as twice as likely as 80s/90s in the elevated interior...you are typically too extreme once again with our climo. You should really learn climo before posting about it.

You might get better numbers than that in Hartford, closer to a 50/50 split...but not for your backyard or most other people to the east of the CT River Valley.

Wait until after week 2 in May, and you increase your chances of 80s.

Well I fully understand our climo.. I understand there are times when Late Napril and Gay can be cool and wet. That doesn't mean that's the norm or is what one should expect. If you looked at and discussed with folks their "expectations" or ideas on typical month of Gay weather ,, most would say cool mornings , and warm afternoons. I'm talking in general,, not specific site locations in the hills. May probably has more days with highs in the 70's and 80's historically than it does 40's and 50's.. Even at a place such as ORH
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Well I fully understand our climo.. I understand there are times when Late Napril and Gay can be cool and wet. That doesn't mean that's the norm or is what one should expect. If you looked at and discussed with folks their "expectations" or ideas on typical month of Gay weather ,, most would say cool mornings , and warm afternoons. I'm talking in general,, not specific site locations in the hills. May probably has more days with highs in the 70's and 80's historically than it does 40's and 50's.. Even at a place such as ORH

May normal hi temp for BDl is 67 May 1st, ends at 75. min is 43 ends at 52 normal ave is 55 to 64
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Well I fully understand our climo.. I understand there are times when Late Napril and Gay can be cool and wet. That doesn't mean that's the norm or is what one should expect. If you looked at and discussed with folks their "expectations" or ideas on typical month of Gay weather ,, most would say cool mornings , and warm afternoons. I'm talking in general,, not specific site locations in the hills. May probably has more days with highs in the 70's and 80's historically than it does 40's and 50's.. Even at a place such as ORH

 

 

You are talking May in general while complaining about model progs for early May that show nasty weather...there's a huge difference between our climo for Memorial Day and our climo for the first week of May.

 

For model progs and "expectations"...only the first couple weeks of the month are relevant comparing to climo. Sorry, but if you are expecting 80s in early May, then move somewhere else...we're far more likely to get 40s and 50s. Otherwise, wait until late in the month when that weather is far more likely.

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U40s on a NE wind at 1k? That's very easy to do. Much easier than 80+.

 

I just ran the ratio....May 1st through May 5th at ORH going back to 1947...here's the breakdown for high temps:

 

30s: 2

40s: 33

50s: 89

 

 

70s: 56

80s: 11

90s: 0

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