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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Yeah I'm referring to Sunday - thurs next week. Couple snow event potentials in there

This week reminds me of the first week of 4/'96, but still need a lot of breaks....doesn't mean we'll score. 

 

Anyone run a composite to compare?

I know 4/'96 probably had an NAO because nearly that whole year did.

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GFS does have a band of snow for SNE on Easter. It's a cold airmass...we'll have to keep a watch on several little impulses along the boundary.

 

For Tuesday, it looks mostly like a frigid rain in SNE to start and then eventually warm sectoring, but that is really not far away from being a lot different.

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 That's a little extreme...

Well it may be a lil extreme, but I feel it's just about over for most in SNE.  I could be completely wrong, but just feel that even though there may be some possibilities over the next week, I feel they will trend toward the cold rain side of things, rather than the accumulating snow side.  If modeling goes opposite of what I'm thinking over the next couple days, I will quickly admit I was wrong wrong wrong.   

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That's what Blizz said yesterday or the day before... he had already saw his last flakes of the season and flipped his avatar.

 

 

Yeah but who actually believes him when he spouts that rubbish? :lol:

 

I think you may get a solid event there on Friday night/Saturday.

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Yeah but who actually believes him when he spouts that rubbish? :lol:

 

I think you may get a solid event there on Friday night/Saturday.

 

Haha, yeah we know he types without thinking...

 

Yeah the GFS probably argues for a 2-5 incher.  Elevations definitely have a better shot than below 1,000ft... like where 1,500ft and higher starts accumulating immediately but takes maybe a tenth or two of QPF to really get going down lower.   I'd love to turn it into a 4"+ advisory event.

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Well it may be a lil extreme, but I feel it's just about over for most in SNE.  I could be completely wrong, but just feel that even though there may be some possibilities over the next week, I feel they will trend toward the cold rain side of things, rather than the accumulating snow side.  If modeling goes opposite of what I'm thinking over the next couple days, I will quickly admit I was wrong wrong wrong.   

I agree with you, but the elevated, distant interior accounts for greater than a mere 1% of sne...and I'm not sure that it's over them with regard to sustantial snowfall. 

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Next week's event on the GFS gets too warm here but its close with snow just over the border into southern Quebec.  Good thump for Sugarloaf and points north/east on that run.  Plenty of time for that to tickle further south. 

 

 

Works for me, planning on being there sometime between April 18th - 25th.

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gfs_asnow_neus_31.png

 

motoneige31.gif

 

Haha, yeah that sums up that run.  I'm like one or two counties away from a much better week next week as that snow column rests just north of the border.  That's one of those runs where Jackman's (and Maine's) higher latitude relative to VT/NH would come into play nicely. 

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Next....

 

Yeah, maybe some spots see low end advisory but that verbatim would sort of go along with the seasonal tendency up here of doing anything possible to keep QPF below 0.4" in a snow event, haha. 

 

In 24 hours the GGEM went from like a 988mb low to a 1004mb low going across New England. 

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Haha, yeah that sums up that run.  I'm like one or two counties away from a much better week next week as that snow column rests just north of the border.  That's one of those runs where Jackman's (and Maine's) higher latitude relative to VT/NH would come into play nicely. 

 

Wagons NW this time of year up here

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