Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Space Weather Discussion


ApacheTrout
 Share

Recommended Posts

I think the only way to really take advantage of the ambient solar wind in the mid-latitudes is for a coronal hole stream to sort of intersect a CIR, though I'm not sure how often that happens in reality. I'm hoping we're not done with real sunspots for the rest of the cycle. That active region a couple weeks ago was huge, but pretty benign magnetically.

Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all.  I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all.  I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner.   

 

The 2003 aurora display over Long Island is one I will never forget (unfortunately I didn't have a camera capable of taking good photos of it at the time). It was incredible. Half the sky was visibily green and the other half visibly red and it was directly overhead. i was looking right at the Fire Island light which divided the two colors from where I was standing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 2003 aurora display over Long Island is one I will never forget (unfortunately I didn't have a camera capable of taking good photos of it at the time). It was incredible. Half the sky was visibily green and the other half visibly red and it was directly overhead. i was looking right at the Fire Island light which divided the two colors from where I was standing.

The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime.

 

That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention.  My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet.  

 

post-18-0-53913400-1441799040_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime.

 

That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention.  My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet.  

 

attachicon.gifaurora.jpg

 

:cry:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh I am pretty sure it won't be.

There will be more extreme storms for sure, but a solar max with a stretch like 2001-2003, ending with the strongest flare ever observed, is unlikely.

 

Most in this forum only have about 4 solar cycles left before we die.  And the next few cycles are supposedly going to be much weaker than this one. And don't forget the geomagnetic pole is still slowly moving away from us.

 

Next solar max is just around the corner in 2022-2025. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like the coronal hole arrived a bit early.  It packed a bigger wallop than your typical CH.

 

Solar wind around 670 with imf values of 17/-15 will always bring a nice G3.  G3 is good for naked-eye colors and well defined features.

 

Yeah a missed opportunity for sure :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

This is the coronal hole... it's early and extra fast.  Solar wind has increased and the last one-minute reading was 700.3 with a BT of 14-20 and a choppy but predominately negative Bz.  I could definitely see a G3 with easy naked eye visibility tonight.
 

Was anything visible?

I see there was indeed a G2 last night.  Looking at the ottawa magnetic summary plots, there was a pretty good jolt around 2am, so there was activity. Doesn't look like anyone was looking at the time though.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the coronal hole... it's early and extra fast.  Solar wind has increased and the last one-minute reading was 700.3 with a BT of 14-20 and a choppy but predominately negative Bz.  I could definitely see a G3 with easy naked eye visibility tonight.

 

IOW, keep an eye out. Am I signed up for your text alerts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed, the IMF really tanked.  Bt had a sharp drop and is very steady at 7, Bz north. 

 

With the current numbers, odds of G3 are slim, and G2 is probable. We have extremely high speed solar wind (now gusting over 800km/s) working in our favor which can assist otherwise marginal numbers.  Even a minimally southward Bz should perform.  At the current speed, the reported conditions provide a 33 minute lead time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clouds killed us tonight.

Sent from my VS986

 

The good (?) news is that there's nothing going on... 750 km/s of ~1 atom/sqcm solar wind seems like a Yellowknife special. The real dedicated aurora chasers (even as far down as RI) reported about 15 minutes of lights just after dark, but now it's back to the high latitudes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...