Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,394
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
anthonyweather

3/20-21 Potential Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

I think it's an even 3"-6" for you and the coast.

With perhaps a bullseye of 5"-7" somewhere unknown.

I think that 3-6" will mainly be on cars and grassy surfaces.  Streets and sidewalks are going to have a tougher time accumulating that much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere.

0(1).jpgMarch 67 .

You may see 4 at the park with wet streets in midtown .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How old are you because ive seen 3-4 inches on grass and virtually nothing on treated surfaces

Well I wasn't around for March of '67 I'll tell you that much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice we could possibly pull off a nice advisory event in parts of central nj to kick off astronomical spring.

If models continue with this theme tonight Mt. Holly could increase amounts to the 2-4" range with up to 6" further north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never seen an event that had 3-6" on grass and little to nothing on the roads. To me- this goes one way or the other- either rates overcome insolation or they don't. If 3-6" falls on grass, the roads are getting covered. If it's light snow, it's wet roads and an inch or two elsewhere.

You're not very old are you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did you go to the Blarney stone for lunch ?

 

.5 falls a frozen @ KNYC

 

Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s).  I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s). I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently.

.5 frozen falls inside 6 hours. So rates will b better than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blarney Stone is all closed up my friend (at least the one on 3rd Ave in the 40s). I don't care if 1.5" falls frozen in the park, you won't see meaningful accumulations until closer to dusk unless we are seeing 1-2"/hr rates consistently.

When I started at my former job around the corner from there in 2011 I used to stop there for some cheap brews and watch old drunk guys get rowdy and get thrown out. :lol: Good times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I started at my former job around the corner from there in 2011 I used to stop there for some cheap brews and watch old drunk guys get rowdy and get thrown out. :lol: Good times

 

A former coworker loved going there for lunch.  Of course, he was one of those old guys too.  All those bars are pretty hilarious from about 2pm on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always wonder what the "OLD" GFS would have looked like it situations like these. I remember when the GFS and upgrade were running in-sync and we could compare the two. Both models would have vastly different outcomes at times and the old GFS would be inline with other global models while the upgrade would be out to lunch and on its own.

 

Now we can do it all over again with the ECMWF.

 

FWIW the Parallel EC is a tick farther south than the OP and has less QPF, not much but a little. It feels like just looking at one of the ensemble members.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always wonder what the "OLD" GFS would have looked like it situations like these. I remember when the GFS and upgrade were running in-sync and we could compare the two. Both models would have vastly different outcomes at times and the old GFS would be inline with other global models while the upgrade would be out to lunch and on its own.

Now we can do it all over again with the ECMWF.

FWIW the Parallel EC is a tick farther south than the OP and has less QPF, not much but a little. It feels like just looking at one of the ensemble members.

What do you think about this storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.5 frozen falls inside 6 hours. So rates will b better than that.

You think we are going to see better than 2 inch per hour rates? That's doubtful, this isn't a miller a barreling up the coast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You think we are going to see better than 2 inch per hour rates? That's doubtful, this isn't a miller a barreling up the coast

I think 3 - 5 fall with .5  these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal .

 

18z GFS Bufkit  for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73

 

Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ?

 

 I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days .

 

I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think 3 - 5 fall with .5 these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal .

18z GFS Bufkit for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73

Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ?

I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days .

I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them

there needs to be a "like" button for your posts. Love them!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think 3 - 5 fall with .5  these are 8 to 1 rates . Not 5 to 1 pal .

 

18z GFS Bufkit  for LGA has 6.4" of snow out of .73

 

Nice attempted ratio estimation , what else you got ?

 

 I have to be honest I am really shocked that you continue to post after all your silly blown non snow posts over the last 45 days .

 

I can pull 10 posts of yours 2 days before each 4 to 6 inch event and we can all watch you bust on every one of them

Is this a typical heavy wet snow that we see in March? if so it probably won't be too bad on treated roads, but people might still have to shovel the driveway.Or just wait a day. If it snows in March, nature takes care of it....seem to remember one in March 04 that was worse than progged and we had to shut the schools early in NJ. Same with the April 03 storm. Got pics of the kids with lilies in the snow....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×