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3/20-21 Potential Winter Storm


anthonyweather

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Your right. If anyone is going to do well it's you up in NE queens with a little elevation and removed from the heat island. I just don't see how cpk sees more then white rain. The beast of a heat island has been nuts lately. With no real CAA surface temps will still be torched in the park and especially mid town. It's going to have to puke 2" or more hours rates to cool the column all the way to the surface in manhattan. Up at Columbia where I work, 150' up and miles north maybe a shot at a couple inches. I think the gradient is that tight

 

Central Park is in an area surrounded by trees and grass and they measure on a snow board.

They should do just as well.

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They could very well be right this time, but seasonal trends of the srefs wet bias have been absolutly awful, I think anyone from 84 South should see 3-6" 2-4 north of 84 for my area

 

I think it's an even 3"-6" for you and the coast.

With perhaps a bullseye of 5"-7" somewhere unknown.

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I'm not arguing that. However, with the setup and time of year, I believe going conservative isn't a terrible way to go. Furthermore, I was just stating Upton has been pretty conservative since the blizzard.

I don't know why people are criticizing Upton for going with 2-3 for the area right now? It's the end of March. What do the people saying that's too low want them to start with? 6-12 and a winter storm watch?
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I wouldn't make calls until after 0z tonight. There's solid potential but still too many moving parts. It's always foolish to disregard the warm air aloft especially this late in the year.

 

No one is ignoring warm air aloft. They are explaining it doesnt get warm aloft until the very end. 

 

Almost every single model shows a solid 3-6 inches in the city and surrounding areas right now. What am I missing with all of the negativity in here?

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Have to say I'm in genuine shock you are not bullish on this storm. Your area has probably only seen 20" of snow this season.

A good forecaster never lets his/her personal desire for snow get in the way of having a clear and open mind when it comes to their forecast.

 

I want every event to be a positive bust for me, but that doesn't mean I put that on paper as my forecast. Some do(Quite often to get eyes to their work by being extreme), and while it may pay off for them in the short run(More viewers), in the long run, it hurts your accuracy and your credibility. 

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But isn't that the model consensus at this time? Why is he being argued with for that?

I'm really trying to understand that. Regardless of what my calendar sayss, if all of the models have it, why are we downplaying it?

Look at past events. April 96 is the best example. Over a foot on the island and almost nothing in manhattan. Temps are marginal and the heat island can bump the temp up ever so slightly enough to change snow to rain. That's for the city.

Outside of the city Upton is probably just being conservative because of a combo of climo an time left to event to change numbers up. After multiple busts earlier in the winter. They busted bad with yesterday's wind with no advisory an someone died. (Not saying an advisory would have stopped it but a least they would have CYA

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