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3/20-21 Potential Winter Storm


anthonyweather

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I think we will see this storm rap up nicely on future model runs. -AO and neutral NAO should slow down the flow appreciably and allow this storm to undergo positive feedback and rapid synoptic wave development.

Major caveat at this point is this split flow has created model chaos this year, even inside 48 hrs. So confidence will remain lower than usual....

That being said, at this point I strongly favor a track closer to the coast and wrapped up, than ots and strung out. I just want to see this shortwave come in hot east of the Rockies...

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Even just a couple/few hundred feet should help significantly this time of year.

Very true the 97 event was like that. I'm sure there was 2 feet on the observation deck of the Empire State Building with that storm. This is a little earlier and colder then that one but also as it's currently modeled weaker and less dynamic

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Very true the 97 event was like that. I'm sure there was 2 feet on the observation deck of the Empire State Building with that storm. This is a little earlier and colder then that one but also as it's currently modeled weaker and less dynamic

NYC was in something of a dry slot during that storm. Boston isn't that different on April 1st and had 25". If the insane dynamics they had came through further southwest, NYC would've been crushed too. 

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