calculus1 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well considering that most of your weather comes from these areas you should take note and be interested. Case and point, the map I just posted has not elicited any interest so far?? You provided a map, with no commentary. You want me to respond to an image? It's hard to start a dialogue without any words being used. But here goes... I see a map of the SE USA. It is much like any other map, though it has hints of Wilkesborodude artistry. Slightly more sophisticated, no doubt, but the resemblance is telling. Perhaps they studied under the same master mapmaker. I have no issue with the content of the map. It appears to match closely with that which has been posted by various NWS offices. I suspect there will most assuredly be severe weather in the indicated regions tomorrow. I will not pretend to be more knowledgeable about the specifics of said severe weather event than are the professional meteorologists who regularly cover that region. There. The dialogue has begun. It is up to others to carry it further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Should a specific thread be started for this severe weather event like we start new threads for individual winter storms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I'm from NC and I am interested in following this. We can't help that there are not many people here from AL and MS. Most people are not interested unless it's in their backyard. You want more people talking about, then more people from those states need to post here. That simple. Whining about it because a lot of posters in the SE are from the Carolinas isn't going to do anything. I am certainly not whining, "pot calling the kettle black", coming from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Well considering that most of your weather comes from these areas you should take note and be interested. Case and point, the map I just posted has not elicited any interest so far?? Since I am originally from Birmingham, I will be following this system and giving everyone updates on this. If something major pops off in Birmingham or any of the other highly populated areas in Alabama then I will try my best to report on them tomorrow. Furthermore, I do still follow social media pages of the local stations out of Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 If you post anything about GA, AL and god forbid MS, it is generally ignored here. Dude, if something significant pops off, then you know me, downeast, and others will be watching radar and posting. I get tired of hearing this stupid argument. Look back at past severe event, people are always posting when tornados are going in dixie alley. Heck I even chase most systems there and post about them while I chase. If you want to read about weather in yby then I suggest to go to comet.edu, take free lessons on models/skew T mastery, and then learn how to predict the weather yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I am certainly not whining, "pot calling the kettle black", coming from you. This group is always of little use in severe weather situations. Go to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. They don't care WHERE the severe weather is located. Their posters are on top of it. Doesn't have to be in their back yard. They did a wonderful job in 2011. I didn't get to participate or even observe since a tornadic storm knocked out my cable and electricity around 4:15AM on the morning of 4/27/2011 and didn't return for almost 5 days. It was rather eerie to go back and read that forum later. I felt like an amnesiac must feel when they come to. I knew something back had happened. I just didn't know how bad until my boss contacted me and told me to make the 25 mile trip down to Phil Campbell to see if I could help. Good Lord.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I notice the slight risk area for severe storms has been pushed further west in GA and basically includes only the counties bordering AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I notice the slight risk area for severe storms has been pushed further west in GA and basically includes only the counties bordering AL. Good catch.... eroded some on the East side of the slight risk, and extended it a little further up into Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 You provided a map, with no commentary. You want me to respond to an image? It's hard to start a dialogue without any words being used. But here goes... I see a map of the SE USA. It is much like any other map, though it has hints of Wilkesborodude artistry. Slightly more sophisticated, no doubt, but the resemblance is telling. Perhaps they studied under the same master mapmaker. I have no issue with the content of the map. It appears to match closely with that which has been posted by various NWS offices. I suspect there will most assuredly be severe weather in the indicated regions tomorrow. I will not pretend to be more knowledgeable about the specifics of said severe weather event than are the professional meteorologists who regularly cover that region. There. The dialogue has begun. It is up to others to carry it further. haha this is great... If people don't like this group for following the event at hand, by all means post great content and discussion yourself and you'll make it better. This group is always of little use in severe weather situations. Go to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. They don't care WHERE the severe weather is located. Their posters are on top of it. Doesn't have to be in their back yard. They did a wonderful job in 2011. I didn't get to participate or even observe since a tornadic storm knocked out my cable and electricity around 4:15AM on the morning of 4/27/2011 and didn't return for almost 5 days. It was rather eerie to go back and read that forum later. I felt like an amnesiac must feel when they come to. I knew something back had happened. I just didn't know how bad until my boss contacted me and told me to make the 25 mile trip down to Phil Campbell to see if I could help. Good Lord.......... By all means go lurk elsewhere. A lurker coming into a sub-forum complaining about the content of the posts...I thought I had seen it all, incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 haha this is great... If people don't like this group for following the event at hand, by all means post great content and discussion yourself and you'll make it better. By all means go lurk elsewhere. A lurker coming into a sub-forum complaining about the content of the posts...I thought I had seen it all, incredible! Lol some great stuff in here today, Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 This group is always of little use in severe weather situations. Go to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. They don't care WHERE the severe weather is located. Their posters are on top of it. Doesn't have to be in their back yard. They did a wonderful job in 2011. I didn't get to participate or even observe since a tornadic storm knocked out my cable and electricity around 4:15AM on the morning of 4/27/2011 and didn't return for almost 5 days. It was rather eerie to go back and read that forum later. I felt like an amnesiac must feel when they come to. I knew something back had happened. I just didn't know how bad until my boss contacted me and told me to make the 25 mile trip down to Phil Campbell to see if I could help. Good Lord.......... I image you start out a lot of your stories with "well back in my day". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 haha this is great... If people don't like this group for following the event at hand, by all means post great content and discussion yourself and you'll make it better. By all means go lurk elsewhere. A lurker coming into a sub-forum complaining about the content of the posts...I thought I had seen it all, incredible! It hurts, doesn't it. The truth always does. I may have been a little harsh but it's still basically a Carolina site. Most of us don't have time to do what some of you do so we like to depend on you for updates. Unfortunately if you don't live in that area, you get nothing about what may be about to hit you. Forbes has placed us under a Torcon of 7 for Wednesday and there has been nothing here about that. I DO check once in a while when I get a chance. So back to work I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I image you start out a lot of your stories with "well back in my day". Well you children will someday as well, little one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Greetings everyone! First time posting here, but I have been lurking for a rather long time. Anyways, since this is the first time I will be experiencing a severe weather related phenomena around the Christmas holidays, I decided to throw in my own little tid-bits. Specifically in the Golden Triangle Area [encompasses West Point, StarkVegas Starkville, and Columbus, MS] and any parts that are affected by tomorrows storms within my airspace [which is TUP to TCL, 1/2 the way to MEI, and about 1/2 the way to GWO]. I couldn't help but notice that there wasn't enough people from the MS-AL region here, and while I may not be from MS originally, I do live here now! Some interesting things to note that I can help in this discussion: Local mets are trying not to say any hard numbers about tornadoes. They are keeping it purposefully vague and saying things like, "Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornadoes tomorrow, some potentially significant near the TUP area." Our own airport weather group pretty much have said something more ominous - "It's gonna get pretty ugly." The last time our weather guys had mentioned the words 'ugly' and 'storm', TUP got hit. The roads in this area are super packed, filled with late holiday shoppers. [This is especially more noticeable in TUP and Columbus, as it is the only places in this part of MS with a mall within a 1hr+ drive.] It was so bad that some coworkers couldn't move to their homes on the other side of Columbus! Now, granted, I would hope that these shoppers would pay attention to the weather tomorrow, but with the schooling system just barely getting out for the holiday break, and the already mentioned shopping sprees, I wouldn't doubt if there would be people here who would forgo listening to the news to get items. Actually, this worries me more than a lot. When the TUP tornado of 2013 came by, there were still people mingling around, acting as if nothing had happened in the area, despite the fact LMS soon received their own tornado an hour or so later... I doubt the flying will stop, but I am sure it will end early. It'll depend on the cloud cover [as today the ceilings were too low for even some of our ILS approach minimums at some points!]. Since we have had little flying these past two days due to low ceilings, it wouldn't surprise me to see a few planes buzz around this area during the forecast for cloud break periods of the morning. Of course, that always leads towards the 'fun' time at work later in the afternoon - the hectic recovery before the storms arrive! As of right now, the sky is overcast and gloomy, with my eyes getting ready for tomorrow. I have work on the scope tomorrow morning, ending right around 1200 or 1300. This gives me prime free time to take some good pics from the highest area around later in the afternoon - the good ol' airport tower! I'll be sure to spread them around here, if that is what is wanted. Got not much other than that for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 It hurts, doesn't it. The truth always does. I may have been a little harsh but it's still basically a Carolina site. Most of us don't have time to do what some of you do so we like to depend on you for updates. Unfortunately if you don't live in that area, you get nothing about what may be about to hit you. Forbes has placed us under a Torcon of 7 for Wednesday and there has been nothing here about that. I DO check once in a while when I get a chance. So back to work I go.First, no it really doesn't hurt. Second, I really really hope AmericanWx forums isn't the first place people go for the weather, especially for severe weather or tornado outbreaks. Hopefully they pay mind to their local national weather service office or their local meteorologist. Third, I can't and us NC posters can't help this being "a Carolina site"....More gulf state posters should be encouraged, not discouraged, to post because of that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 First, no it really doesn't hurt. Second, I really really hope AmericanWx forums isn't the first place people go for the weather, especially for severe weather or tornado outbreaks. Hopefully they pay mind to their local national weather service office or their local meteorologist. Third, I can't and us NC posters can't help this being "a Carolina site"....More gulf state posters should be encouraged, not discouraged, to post because of that fact. We try ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It hurts, doesn't it. The truth always does. I may have been a little harsh but it's still basically a Carolina site. Most of us don't have time to do what some of you do so we like to depend on you for updates. Unfortunately if you don't live in that area, you get nothing about what may be about to hit you. Forbes has placed us under a Torcon of 7 for Wednesday and there has been nothing here about that. I DO check once in a while when I get a chance. So back to work I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 There are only a handful of posters that really follow severe in the SE forum, if we are not on then nothing gets posted....this goes for NC or anywhere else.... just a few weeks ago we where all over the tornados in the ATL area...if me, Hvward, Disc etc are on and there are tornadoes in the SE we will be following it......that said there are way more NC posters than other states so it stands to reason when severe happens here it will get more post as most folks are IMBY posters anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This is from Dixie Alley Tornadoes on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/DixieAlleyTornadoes/photos/a.187127608290168.1073741828.187108644958731/208221622847433/?type=3&theater That picture pretty much sums up why there is not much chatter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I put together a map and this is kind of my thoughts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Greetings everyone! First time posting here, but I have been lurking for a rather long time. Anyways, since this is the first time I will be experiencing a severe weather related phenomena around the Christmas holidays, I decided to throw in my own little tid-bits. Specifically in the Golden Triangle Area [encompasses West Point, StarkVegas Starkville, and Columbus, MS] and any parts that are affected by tomorrows storms within my airspace [which is TUP to TCL, 1/2 the way to MEI, and about 1/2 the way to GWO]. I couldn't help but notice that there wasn't enough people from the MS-AL region here, and while I may not be from MS originally, I do live here now! Some interesting things to note that I can help in this discussion: Local mets are trying not to say any hard numbers about tornadoes. They are keeping it purposefully vague and saying things like, "Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornadoes tomorrow, some potentially significant near the TUP area." Our own airport weather group pretty much have said something more ominous - "It's gonna get pretty ugly." The last time our weather guys had mentioned the words 'ugly' and 'storm', TUP got hit. The roads in this area are super packed, filled with late holiday shoppers. [This is especially more noticeable in TUP and Columbus, as it is the only places in this part of MS with a mall within a 1hr+ drive.] It was so bad that some coworkers couldn't move to their homes on the other side of Columbus! Now, granted, I would hope that these shoppers would pay attention to the weather tomorrow, but with the schooling system just barely getting out for the holiday break, and the already mentioned shopping sprees, I wouldn't doubt if there would be people here who would forgo listening to the news to get items. Actually, this worries me more than a lot. When the TUP tornado of 2013 came by, there were still people mingling around, acting as if nothing had happened in the area, despite the fact LMS soon received their own tornado an hour or so later... I doubt the flying will stop, but I am sure it will end early. It'll depend on the cloud cover [as today the ceilings were too low for even some of our ILS approach minimums at some points!]. Since we have had little flying these past two days due to low ceilings, it wouldn't surprise me to see a few planes buzz around this area during the forecast for cloud break periods of the morning. Of course, that always leads towards the 'fun' time at work later in the afternoon - the hectic recovery before the storms arrive! As of right now, the sky is overcast and gloomy, with my eyes getting ready for tomorrow. I have work on the scope tomorrow morning, ending right around 1200 or 1300. This gives me prime free time to take some good pics from the highest area around later in the afternoon - the good ol' airport tower! I'll be sure to spread them around here, if that is what is wanted. Got not much other than that for now... You started off with a fantastic first post, ATC. This was interesting stuff, even though it doesn't affect my backyard. Please do post pics, if you get any, tomorrow. I would love to see them. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I put together a map and this is kind of my thoughts right now. CS SVR SPECIAL DEC 23 2015.png In this case I hope you are very wrong. Not what you want to see at Christmas (or ever really) in populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Welcome to the board, ATController! Good to have you around, and hope that you don't have to deal with anything tomorrow. I'm always interested in the AL/MS weather, since systems there usually make their way up here into the Carolinas. Sometimes as robust, sometimes in a weakened state, but more often than not, your weather becomes our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Greetings everyone! First time posting here, but I have been lurking for a rather long time. Anyways, since this is the first time I will be experiencing a severe weather related phenomena around the Christmas holidays, I decided to throw in my own little tid-bits. Specifically in the Golden Triangle Area [encompasses West Point, StarkVegas Starkville, and Columbus, MS] and any parts that are affected by tomorrows storms within my airspace [which is TUP to TCL, 1/2 the way to MEI, and about 1/2 the way to GWO]. I couldn't help but notice that there wasn't enough people from the MS-AL region here, and while I may not be from MS originally, I do live here now! Some interesting things to note that I can help in this discussion: Local mets are trying not to say any hard numbers about tornadoes. They are keeping it purposefully vague and saying things like, "Wouldn't be surprised if there were tornadoes tomorrow, some potentially significant near the TUP area." Our own airport weather group pretty much have said something more ominous - "It's gonna get pretty ugly." The last time our weather guys had mentioned the words 'ugly' and 'storm', TUP got hit. The roads in this area are super packed, filled with late holiday shoppers. [This is especially more noticeable in TUP and Columbus, as it is the only places in this part of MS with a mall within a 1hr+ drive.] It was so bad that some coworkers couldn't move to their homes on the other side of Columbus! Now, granted, I would hope that these shoppers would pay attention to the weather tomorrow, but with the schooling system just barely getting out for the holiday break, and the already mentioned shopping sprees, I wouldn't doubt if there would be people here who would forgo listening to the news to get items. Actually, this worries me more than a lot. When the TUP tornado of 2013 came by, there were still people mingling around, acting as if nothing had happened in the area, despite the fact LMS soon received their own tornado an hour or so later... I doubt the flying will stop, but I am sure it will end early. It'll depend on the cloud cover [as today the ceilings were too low for even some of our ILS approach minimums at some points!]. Since we have had little flying these past two days due to low ceilings, it wouldn't surprise me to see a few planes buzz around this area during the forecast for cloud break periods of the morning. Of course, that always leads towards the 'fun' time at work later in the afternoon - the hectic recovery before the storms arrive! As of right now, the sky is overcast and gloomy, with my eyes getting ready for tomorrow. I have work on the scope tomorrow morning, ending right around 1200 or 1300. This gives me prime free time to take some good pics from the highest area around later in the afternoon - the good ol' airport tower! I'll be sure to spread them around here, if that is what is wanted. Got not much other than that for now... Nice first post. Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 There are only a handful of posters that really follow severe in the SE forum, if we are not on then nothing gets posted....this goes for NC or anywhere else.... just a few weeks ago we where all over the tornados in the ATL area...if me, Hvward, Disc etc are on and there are tornadoes in the SE we will be following it......that said there are way more NC posters than other states so it stands to reason when severe happens here it will get more post as most folks are IMBY posters anyways.It's also probably a more difficult thing to discuss for some. Following the 850 0c line and precip map is one thing, but looking at soundings and forecasting severe weather is a completely different (and I believe, more difficult) science. It took me several severe seasons to be able to read a sounding, hodographs, and to be able to decipher all the indices used for severe wx and I know I'm barely scratching the surface. I have so many papers I still want to read before next spring. So with a higher learning curve comes less forecasting and more now casting...folks will post a lot of radar/hooks/debris signatures because it's easier and that's ok. Just my thoughts, but we value people like you and Disc and others who are more skillful in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sucks that I am working nights this week, I usually sleep from 9 am to 4-5pm then have to get ready and be at work by 7pm. Then to top it off I'm covering on a POS line that I hate and there is no pc access in my work area so I can't even follow the storms like I want. I will be able to track em on radar scope on the phone though....looking like tomorrow afternoon could be rough in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'm becoming a bit more concerned for N central MS up to the SW TN area. (Greenville, MS to Tupelo, MS and over to Memphis, TN) Soundings from this area show an uncapped environment with quite impressive directional and speed shear for this time of year. 60-70kt winds around 950mb out of the SSW -- surface winds from the SSE around 15-20kts. Any discrete storm will have the potential to rotate, but I still believe the biggest concern to be damaging winds, especially considering there is a 60kt+ jet at 850mb. That won't be hard to tap into. Another thing to note is the potential for large hail. Freezing levels are a bit high (roughly 12kft on the sounding below) but with the combination of decent CAPE values and decent lapse rates in the hail growth zone coupled with strong 0-6km shear spit out by hi-res modeling, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few big hailers. EDIT: Sounding is from Greenwood, MS (17z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I would not be surprised if we seem them upgrade to a small Mod risk area for upper MS and W TN in subsequent outlooks once things are nailed down a bit more. 10% hatched tor for D1. Atlanta just inside 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 RAP had 600-800 m/s on the latest run for north MS/AL.....that's scary given the environment, there could be strong long trackers with this setup and on top of that any tornadoes that form will be hauling ass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 RAP had 600-800 m/s on the latest run for north MS/AL.....that's scary given the environment, there could be strong long trackers with this setup and on top of that any tornadoes that form will be hauling ass.... should I even consider chasing tomorrow, isn't suppose to be mostly at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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