sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sounds like a snow forecast ! Lot of ifs and butts! If this were a snow forecast, the sun would be out torching everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sounds like a snow forecast ! Lot of ifs and butts! Well, that is how it has been here the last two years with the storm forecasts, too. Getting just as bad as forecasting snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Stability parameters are still abysmal for central NC. The temp still not being at 80 by Noon in mid-July is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Going to be a complete bust again. Probably won't be any storms at all, let alone any severe ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 WRAL still talking up the storms. They are in denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 73.9° in Spartanburg. Instability is abysmal right now. This better clear in a hurry if we have any shot at all for storms later. Not looking good. The only positive is 0-6 shear being 30 kts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 14, 2015 Author Share Posted July 14, 2015 Got an ok lightning shot with Highlands below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 ^ Nice shot man! Instability finally starting to come around....slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 73.9° in Spartanburg. Instability is abysmal right now. This better clear in a hurry if we have any shot at all for storms later. Not looking good. The only positive is 0-6 shear being 30 kts right now.Evaporative cooling from 23 raindrops , has dropped me 3 degrees , to a comfy 81! Mid 90s forecast today, looks a little busty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 sbcape: <500 mucape: 250 dcape: 600 There are some really sharp instability gradients. It goes from 5000 to 500 in a span of like a 100 miles in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Going to be interesting to see how today plays out, instability much lower overall than progged so wouldn't be surprised to see them back off the enhanced risk....but then again if things came together right we are plenty unstable enough now to support severe weather. The MCS forming in Ohio dropping south is IMO the best chance of a widespread severe event in central and eastern NC...its much further east than the previous ones and should drop down east of the MTS for the most part.....its also 8-10 hrs away at least for most of us. The clouds over central and eastern NC are really badly timed lol its whats left of that earlier MCS but if you watch this loop there is good clearing behind it and its progressing east quickly so we will get scape to around 3000 if we are lucky and with the shear out in west NC slipping east I wouldn't be surprised to see some discrete cells fire especially in the southern half of NC from Charlotte over to Fayetteville....also with the sun the lee trough should begin forming so west of the Triad maybe as well. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sun is finally peeping through mostly cloudy skies. Might be too little too late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Storms going tornadic in TN, heading torwards NC mtns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 How is the T-ball index looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 How is the T-ball index looking?10+, no stormsHeat lightning index : 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 TN storm Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Storms going tornadic in TN, heading torwards NC mtns! That area really primed for tornados right now I would suspect any couplet on radar to be producing shear and other parameters for tornados are very high in north central Tenn right now.... Edit to add that NC isn't that bad either if we do get some discrete supercells they will spin up and some tornados maybe even strong ones are possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Just got out from the movie Minions and it is totally different out now. Sun is out and it is hot and humid. Might be enough to get storms after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sunny now and up to 86°. Instability recovering a little bit, but still not good by any means. Those storms across the entire state of TN are blowing up pretty good now. Interested to see how much we can get our cape up too with not much time left in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Sunny now and up to 86°. Instability recovering a little bit, but still not good by any means. Those storms across the entire state of TN are blowing up pretty good now. Interested to see how much we can get our cape up too with not much time left in the day. TN is getting some serious storms for sure. Will be interesting to see how long that line holds together once it heads towards GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 WRAL now saying to look for two rounds of storms here this evening and later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 SPC removed the enhanced risk from the area now. Finally heating up outside. 88 at RDU at 4:00 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Looks like what will happen is pretty much anyone's guess. Forecasting the storms here is now like forecasting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 SPC removed the enhanced risk from the area now. Finally heating up outside. 88 at RDU at 4:00 pm. Its all about the timing, I tired to beat Bricks poo poo post but I see that I failed...... Instability out west where the lee trough is trying to setup is crap so I wonder if this sun is enough this late to get the storms kicked off, if not then the MCS in Ohio will be about our only chance and it will be much later this evening....we could see something fire along the lee trough and move east in the next hr or two as that impulse eases over the mts better.....and the sea breeze might save some coastal folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Its all about the timing, I tired to beat Bricks poo poo post but I see that I failed...... Instability out west where the lee trough is trying to setup is crap so I wonder if this sun is enough this late to get the storms kicked off, if not then the MCS in Ohio will be about our only chance and it will be much later this evening....we could see something fire along the lee trough and move east in the next hr or two as that impulse eases over the mts better.....and the sea breeze might save some coastal folks Yeah, you gotta be quick on the draw to beat a Brick poo poo post. Yeah, I'm not seeing much that's going to have an impact any time soon. Not sure what WRAL is thinking. And yay for another nighttime weakening MCS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Looks like all the good stuff is going to stay west of SC/NC. NAM and HRRR supports this. Instability is still crap thanks to the 0.02" of rain and clouds I had all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Yeah, you gotta be quick on the draw to beat a Brick poo poo post. Yeah, I'm not seeing much that's going to have an impact any time soon. Not sure what WRAL is thinking. And yay for another nighttime weakening MCS!! All the CIN finally gone at the surface over eastern NC still some over the rest of the state, might be to little to late, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the MCS over Ohio sometimes those systems do a lot with a little and with the LLJ we should have over us even a weaker line might be able to get 40-60 mph winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 I'm going to throw in the towel on this one. Instability is terrible and isn't going to improve much from here on out. Skies finally clear at the end of the day. No development anywhere in sight. The complex moving SE out of OH, should provide a few sprinkles by midnight, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 All the CIN finally gone at the surface over eastern NC still some over the rest of the state, might be to little to late, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the MCS over Ohio sometimes those systems do a lot with a little and with the LLJ we should have over us even a weaker line might be able to get 40-60 mph winds to the surface. Just posted right after you (didn't know you were posting!). In the winter, we don't usually have much in the way of instability, but we often get strong shear and end up with a decent wind event. Maybe this will be one of those times....although I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Let's see if Blaes knows what he's talking about (portion of the RAH discussion): THE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRISCLOUDINESS AND LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS NOTICEABLYTHINNED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SBCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASEDAROUND 500 J/KG DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONTWHILE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH TIER OFCENTRAL NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED ACROSS WESTERN NCDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND NOW RANGE BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 INTHE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. ADEVELOPING MCS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN OH AS OF 19Z. THE MCSWILL LIKELY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS WV AND VA BEFORE REACHINGNW NC AROUND 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURETOWARD OUR REGION IS RATHER HIGH BUT MORE PROBLEMATIC IS THECOVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOPAHEAD OF THE LINE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A GROWING CUMULUSFIELD ACROSS WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV WHICH MOVE SOUTHEAST AHEADOF THE MAIN LINE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN23-03Z IN THE TRIAD...00-06Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND 02-08Z IN THECOASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 40KTS TONIGHT AS A 50+KT MIDLEVEL JET MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. WIND PROFILES WILL BE IMPRESSIVETHIS EVENING WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20KTS. THIS WIND FIELD ISSUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO ORTWO...ALONG WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTSAND LARGE HAIL. WITH THAT NOTED...A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSSCENTRAL NC IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIONACROSS THE OH VALLEY. IF THIS CONVECTION REACHES CENTRAL NC...THEWIND FIELD COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULDRESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTOLOWER 70S. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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