Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Getting hammered here in Jville, lightning is crazy. Really interested to see how tomorrow turns out. Also looking at velocities there is a bit of broad rotation in SE duplin county. Jacksonville has been the place to be for storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Actually have some stratoform rain that's wetting the pavement ! Winning My pavenment isn't quite wet, kind of that blotchy look bc it is still hot. I'm going to start measuring rainfall in drops instead of inches. Strataform rain is the only saving grace so far this summer. I think we have only had 2 (maybe 1) legit storms all spring and summer. Maybe I can pick up a tenth or 2 of rain from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Had another trace this evening so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The slight risk for tomorrow in SC and NC can safely be removed. One or two storms at best tomorrow with temps right back to 95-100. Bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The slight risk for tomorrow in SC and NC can safely be removed. One or two storms at best tomorrow with temps right back to 95-100. Bet on it. Umm...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The slight risk for tomorrow in SC and NC can safely be removed. One or two storms at best tomorrow with temps right back to 95-100. Bet on it. No, this time the rain is going to affect a large number of members on our forum. As far as removing the slight risk for NC and SC, .... not a good idea. Give me a reason why you think the risk of severe storms is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 For 1, just look at the radar tonight. There is not anywhere close to the number and intensity of storms in Tenn or Kentucky that was expected. Another one is that no severe weather forecast has panned out anywhere like it has been forecast. There has always been something to go wrong with it. GSP has already hinted that the front with be late getting here and that is why I say temps will go back up to 95-100. This also makes for bad timing for the front coming through. So yes, the slight risk can safely be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 For 1, just look at the radar tonight. There is not anywhere close to the number and intensity of storms in Tenn or Kentucky that was expected. Another one is that no severe weather forecast has panned out anywhere like it has been forecast. There has always been something to go wrong with it. GSP has already hinted that the front with be late getting here and that is why I say temps will go back up to 95-100. This also makes for bad timing for the front coming through. So yes, the slight risk can safely be removed. Do you have family in Wilkesboro, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 From GSP: THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL AREAS FORTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD. FOLLOWING TONIGHTSACTIVITY...WHICH MODELS TRAIL OFF AROUND 6Z...A MAJOR COLD WILL PASSTHROUGH THE AREA AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON CARRYING WITH IT A HIGHPROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. LATEST NAMTIMING HAS FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AROUND 11AMON SATURDAY...AND EXITING SOUTHEAST AROUND 6PM. TOTAL RAINFALLTHROUGH SATURDAY IS AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BEHIGHLY VARIABLE FROM PLACE TO PLACE. Highly variable, as in some places will get several inches while some get nothing. Guarantee mby gets almost nothing. Prob end up getting fringed by some decaying cell. I've seen this story too many times to not know the ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Do you have family in Wilkesboro, NC? That made me laugh... oh the memories. But you are right haha we have been getting lucky here in Jville with some crazy storms recently; if we get the instability like we have had the past few days over eastern nc I can see a lot of us getting in the game for some severe tomorrow. I hope we can get some decent heating going early in the day and not have a lot of crapvection left over from tonight's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 For 1, just look at the radar tonight. There is not anywhere close to the number and intensity of storms in Tenn or Kentucky that was expected. Another one is that no severe weather forecast has panned out anywhere like it has been forecast. There has always been something to go wrong with it. GSP has already hinted that the front with be late getting here and that is why I say temps will go back up to 95-100. This also makes for bad timing for the front coming through. So yes, the slight risk can safely be removed.Well we had at least 3 tornado warned storms in the Ohio Valley today so I guess the risk the SPC expressed was warranted. Wind profiles look favorable for supecell development tomorrow that congeals into an MCS. You give no scientific analysis to why it is safe to drop the risk, similar to how you give no reasoning behind most of your bold statements. I know I call you out the most, but it is because I get sick and tired of your ridiculous know it all attitude. Just the other day you said rain chances needed to be dropped for today around the upstate but yet today most of GSP area got decent rain. The Jonesville desert didn't get any but really who gives a crap about yby. You were wrong all winter long, remember back when you call for no snow anywhere when we got our big winter storm last winter? Oh and how you called for no snow on the V-day storm of last year. Dont make me go pull posts to show you how ridiculous of statements you have made in the past only to be wrong. It is almost as though you are doing this to get under peoples skin but there are people who read this board and take your posts seriously. How many times are you going to say "looks like 1993"? I have never seen anyone on this board other then wilkesborodude push their agenda so they are right so far. Once again, you have been wrong this week, wrong this year, and wrong last year.. Please stop posting and belittling others who actually get their forecasts right every once in a while. Anyone can say ehhhh its gonna be dry, you have no special skill. #rantover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 0z NAM says no rain for the upstate through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That model says I am right. So get over it. Maybe I am better than GSP weather office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That model says I am right. So get over it. Maybe I am better than GSP weather office. You need to back off the trolling starting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1113 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 NCC037-063-135-270400- /O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-150627T0400Z/ ORANGE NC-CHATHAM NC-DURHAM NC- 1113 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR SOUTHERN ORANGE...EASTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES... AT 1111 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF PITTSBORO TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...HILLSBOROUGH...PITTSBORO...CARRBORO...JORDAN LAKE STATE REC AREA...CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER...LAKE JORDAN... BETHESDA AND GORMAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS INJURIES... DEATHS...AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PROPERTY DAMAGE EACH YEAR... TYPICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FALLING TREES OR TREE BRANCHES. && LAT...LON 3608 7881 3606 7879 3591 7885 3587 7891 3561 7899 3557 7904 3561 7908 3562 7914 3560 7916 3570 7923 3582 7934 3584 7933 3585 7924 3589 7926 3606 7916 3609 7907 TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 214DEG 18KT 3584 7923 3562 7906 $$ 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Not sure when it started, but finally had an impressive storm overnight. Lots of thunder, wind, and rain. It is still raining now. Have to see if it continues or stops in time to get some heating and instability for more storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 US National Weather Service Charleston SC added a new photo. 20 mins · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That's just gonna make Brick mad, Solak...too many threat levels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Two items of interest from RAH this morning... FLASH FLOOD WATCH: GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT 1.75-2.00") AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY/ TONIGHT...THE FIRST ALONG/AHEAD OF A SFC-H85 WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE VA BORDER THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND ALONG/AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW-SE THIS AFT/EVE...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT (WEST OF HWY 1) AND SUNRISE SUNDAY (EAST OF HWY 1).SEVERE THREAT: STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW/DPVA IN ADVANCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD INTRODUCE THE NECESSARY FORCING/KINEMATICS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY W/REGARD TO DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY (STRONG UPDRAFTS)...HIGH PWAT VALUES (PRECIP-LOADING)...HIGH DCAPE (EVAP COOLING)...AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (MOMENTUM TRANSPORT). THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL (5.5-6.0 C/KM)...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...LARGE HAIL (QUARTER TO GOLFBALL) CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT. A TORNADO CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT WITH CONVECTION...ORGANIZED OR NOT...HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE THE BEST TOR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SYNOPTIC LOW /WARM FRONT/ OVER NORTHERN VA/MD AND DELMARVA. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Not sure when it started, but finally had an impressive storm overnight. Lots of thunder, wind, and rain. It is still raining now. Have to see if it continues or stops in time to get some heating and instability for more storms today.It was a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 US National Weather Service Charleston SC added a new photo. 20 mins · Glad that the slight risk was safely removed.. Wind profiles around the Greenville, NC area still looking favorable for slight tornadic development and if I hadn't had a shoulder injury Thursday night.. I would be on my way there right now. I see little if any veer-back-veer so if a supercell can pop up in that environment, it will likely put down a weak end tornado. The WRF-ARW shows this happening around the Rocky Mount area but really it is difficult to pin something that this down exactly. If you live within this vicinity, watch the radar and check back here later this afternoon when cells pop. Not everyone is going to get something severe out of this, but the atmosphere is ripe for development and those that do get under cells are going to get pounded. We may not see a single drop of rain in Jonesville, but Spartanburg could see wind damage. That is how these things work. With the cold front overhead, lapse rates will cause cumulonimbus to soar and downburst cape will be very high. Stay on guard today and watch the radar blow up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Low clouds have burned off and full sun here at the coast, patiently waiting for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Guess we'll see if we actually get a storm in Wake Forest when we are under a greater threat. Once again last night we got a pretty big storm when there was no watch, and nothing during the watch. It seems the weather here likes to do the opposite of what the threat is at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Guess we'll see if we actually get a storm in Wake Forest when we are under a greater threat. Once again last night we got a pretty big storm when there was no watch, and nothing during the watch. It seems the weather here likes to do the opposite of what the threat is at the time. Your last two sentences are based on a false premise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Not really. I have not had any severe storms this year during a watch. Not even any impressive storms at all. The times I have had a big storm, which are probably about three big ones and one actual severe, I was not under a watch. It is just funny how that has worked out this year, but that is the way it has been. Not saying the threats have not been real and the watches have not been warranted. Just saying they have not produced anything big here when there is a threat and a watch. Maybe today will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Not really. I have not had any severe storms this year during a watch. Not even any impressive storms at all. The times I have had a big storm, which are probably about three big ones and one actual severe, I was not under a watch. It is just funny how that has worked out this year, but that is the way it has been. Not saying the threats have not been real and the watches have not been warranted. Just saying they have not produced anything big here when there is a threat and a watch. Maybe today will be different. There's a flood watch in effect for Wake as well. I can't WAIT to hear you complain about getting too much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Guess we'll see if we actually get a storm in Wake Forest when we are under a greater threat. Once again last night we got a pretty big storm when there was no watch, and nothing during the watch. It seems the weather here likes to do the opposite of what the threat is at the time. Just because you didn't get anything bad out of the watch doesn't mean the watch failed. There were numerous reports of severe weather within the watch area. 7 reports of 1" hail in the Clayton area alone, yet all I had was a 10 minute sprinkle from the same storm. That doesn't mean nothing happened during the watch. It just didn't happen here. As to your last part, there are plenty of times when you can get a 'big storm' with out having to have a watch ahead of time. More often than not, most summertime 'big storms' occur without any kind of watch being in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Just because you didn't get anything bad out of the watch doesn't mean the watch failed. There were numerous reports of severe weather within the watch area. 7 reports of 1" hail in the Clayton area alone, yet all I had was a 10 minute sprinkle from the same storm. That doesn't mean nothing happened during the watch. It just didn't happen here. As to your last part, there are plenty of times when you can get a 'big storm' with out having to have a watch ahead of time. More often than not, most summertime 'big storms' occur without any kind of watch being in place. AND why in the world should a non-severe storm necessitate a watch? As you said, this is an extremely common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Destabilization is slow to occur in central nc because of the cloud deck but eastern nc is rapidly increasing with the sunshine, cape values already getting to 3500 per mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I never said the watches failed. I said they were warranted at the time. Just that I have not had a severe storm personally during a watch this year. Just thought it was funny that I have had the biggest storms without a watch. I would think the big storms would come during a watch, when the conditions are supposed to be favorable for them, even if they are not severe. But that has not been the case so far for me personally. Not dogging the forecasters, I just think it is funny it has turned out that way. I feel like I am not explaining it well or something, so I will just drop it and see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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