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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Ahh yeah my favorite thread.......saw the cape building with the decent shear and thought we might see some fireworks, unfortunately I was at work the entire time although the plant got clipped by the tail end of the warned cell in Pitt Co.....do any of you guys got a way to look at the velocity scans when it was over north Pitt Co....I want to time it to the pic my wife got and see what the rotation looked like around that time the pic was taken at 5:19 I am guessing it was pretty ragged and broad....

 

post-141-0-85630400-1426118639_thumb.jpg

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Wooohooo marginal lol

 

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...PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS...
   MID/UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A BIT
   UNCLEAR...AND MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.  FURTHERMORE... WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF CAPE FOR
   MOIST LIFTED PARCELS.  HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO SUGGEST
   THAT...AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...A
   WEAKENING/REMNANT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
   THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY LATE SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON /CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J PER KG MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION/.  ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A LINGERING BELT OF 30-50 KT
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
   COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
   OF GENERATING LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.
 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Slight to Marginal Risk of Severe Boomers!!!!  I'll Take it and smile.  NWS point nd click shows severe storms tonight for MBY and ATL proper.

 

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 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK EWD TO NRN MS AND CENTRAL
   AL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
   RISK...FROM W TX TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PAC NW...AND THE DOWNSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS EWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS.  A MUCH WEAKER
   SRN STREAM PERSISTS OVER MEXICO/TX...WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER
   THE BAJA PENINSULA. 

   ...RED RIVER VALLEY EWD TO MS/AL TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   A SERIES OF SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA...ONE OVER N CENTRAL OK AND ANOTHER
   NEAR THE CO/NEB BORDER AS OF 12Z...WILL MOVE ESEWD/SEWD ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...WAA
   IS MOST PRONOUNCED FROM SE OK/NE TX EWD INTO MS/AL...ON THE ERN
   FRINGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING WWD TO THE
   SRN ROCKIES.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE
   RETURNING NWD/NEWD BENEATH THE LAPSE RATE PLUME...SUCH THAT
   MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HEATING FROM THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE ARK-LA-MISS.

   A DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION FORECAST TODAY.  THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN
   MS/AL WILL LIKELY BE RELATED TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SW FRINGE OF THE WEAK MORNING WAA
   SHOWERS/CONVECTION.  FARTHER W...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WEAK ASCENT
   PRECEDING THE SUBTLE WAVE OVER N CENTRAL OK COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
   SMALL INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR STORM FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   SE OK INTO WRN AR.  CONTINUING W ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THERE
   IS NO CLEAR SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT.  HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE
   TROUGH/WARM FRONT STRUCTURE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INVOF THE
   RED RIVER...JUST E OF A WEAK LEE/THERMAL LOW NEAR CDS.  AT LEAST
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
   CORRIDOR ALONG AND JUST N OF THIS TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON /ACROSS
   SRN AND POTENTIALLY INTO CENTRAL OK/.

   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN 8-9
   C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE
   BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 80 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   60S...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -16 C.  MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY
   QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM LIKELY TOO MOIST...AND THE RAP/HRRR TOO
   DRY...ESPECIALLY INTO SW OK.  DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...FROM SW OK EWD INTO AR/MS/AL.
   THE CONDITIONAL HAIL RISK APPEARS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OK/AR
   PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE LARGEST LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS A RESULT OF
   STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
 

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SPC talking up Friday

 

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
   SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING NEAR AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT -- TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY.  DEPENDING
   UPON THE SPEED OF THE ADVANCE OF THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION INTO THE E
   COAST STATES...SOME AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
   OCCUR...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
   WHILE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGESTS QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT...MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND ATTENDANT
   RISKS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED
   SEVERE RISK -- SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
 

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...Severe Thunderstorm Threat Moving East During the Rest of the Week...
A west-east oriented frontal boundary will push a little bit south today, and begin to move back north tonight and Thursday. On Friday and Friday night a storm system and the accompanying cold front will move across the Eastern US and off the coast by Saturday morning.

These frontal boundaries will be the focus for thunderstorms over the next few days, with the threat for strong storms with large hail...

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Don't often see this for an outflow boundary...

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
901 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015
 
NCZ040>042-090145-
WAKE NC-CHATHAM NC-JOHNSTON NC-
901 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

AT 857 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBORO TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZEBULON...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 TO 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE OUTFLOW
THROUGH 945 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...CLAYTON...
APEX...HOLLY SPRINGS...SELMA...PINE LEVEL...JORDAN LAKE STATE REC
AREA...FLOWERS...CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER...LAKE JORDAN...SHEARON
HARRIS RESERVOIR...LAKE BENSON...SEAFORTH BOAT DOCK...HARRIS LAKE
BOAT LAUNCH...NEW HILL AND LAKE WHEELER.

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Don't worry about the truck, get some pics!!!

Once the lightening calmed down I was able to grab a couple of hail stones, but they had been melting for at least 15-20 minutes.  Still the size close to a golf ball.  Checked my truck out and don't think I have any damage.  But NWS indicates damage did occur to homes and vehicles in Franklin Co. where I'm located.

 

FEW IF ANY REPORTS OF WIND BUT NUMEROUS

REPORTS OF HAIL WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OCCURRING OVER SECTIONS OF

FRANKLIN COUNTY RESULTING IN DAMAGE TO HOMES AND VEHICLES.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

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