Severe storms 2015 general chatter

[dailylurker]

Well, that blew.

That statement pretty much sums up our climate lol. I guess I'll be watering the garden tonight.

[yoda]

Someone bring us some shear, kthx

[AvantHiatus]

 

 

That statement pretty much sums up our climate lol. I guess I'll be watering the garden tonight. 

 

We have the best climate, however CFA is a major influence in the US....expands deep into the Midwest/Texas. What you're getting at is just unlucky variability.

 

[North Balti Zen]

That was pretty awful yesterday for a STS Watch to have been issued. Disappointing.

[mappy]

That was pretty awful yesterday for a STS Watch to have been issued. Disappointing.

 

and canceled 3 hours later? 

[yoda]

Looks like Sunday afternoon is our next best chance of meh severe

[Kmlwx]

This blows

[yoda]

Hooray for a token STW a lil while ago

[AvantHiatus]

This blows

^

 

I hope DC doesn't turn into Dubai.

[yoda]

Hooray!  Another one

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
507 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  
 
* AT 507 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPOTSYLVANIA...OR 10 MILES  
SOUTH OF FREDERICKSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SPOTSYLVANIA...MASSAPONAX...SNELL AND THORNBURG. 

[yoda]

Hmmmm

 

 

 

 

[snowfan]

Don't get sucked in yoda....

[yoda]

Don't get sucked in yoda....

 

It looks good... till you see there is only 20 kts of shear

[snowfan]

It looks good... till you see there is only 20 kts of shear

Always one ingredient missing here....

[AvantHiatus]

It is kind of early for big heat, even for DC. Just sayin'.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Our biggest heat waves usually come in July or early August. Even in the hot years like 2011/2012, it was July that brought the big 100-105+ degree heat. Dewpoints are still tame compared to where they'll be in 5-6 weeks.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I remember there was a week in July of 2012 where models were spitting out 110-112 degrees in the area, just three days out. Thankfully, they backed off a bit last minute.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah it doesn't take much of a departure to top 90 during peak climo. It'll be interesting to see (for me at least) where the temps fall this summer. Summers and winters have done the opposite of what I thought they would since I moved here.

Well, we had three consecutive fire-pit summers from 2010-2012, and believe me when I say you're lucky you weren't living here. We had a day or two where heat indexes approached or exceeded 120 degrees in 2011. The heat was persistent, too. It stuck around for weeks on end, and any breaks were short lived.

Once we get back into a La Niña regime, I'm sure the furnace turn back on.

[yoda]

00z NAM still kinda likes the area around evening time fwiw when peeking at soundings

 

ETA: 00z 4km NAM really likes Monday evening on the radar forecast and so does the 00z NAM Radar Reflectivity at 48 and 51 hrs

 

00z GFS looks okay peeking at soundings for Sunday evening as well

[yoda]

0600 OTLK out:  SLGT risk in PA and N MD... 2/15/15

[StudentOfClimatology]

Yeah it doesn't take much of a departure to top 90 during peak climo. It'll be interesting to see (for me at least) where the temps fall this summer. Summers and winters have done the opposite of what I thought they would since I moved here.

That's pretty much average for mid/late July, actually. The average July high in DC since 1979 is 90.3, if I'm calculating it right. Even 94-95 degrees is kinda run of mill here during the dog days.

We've been spoiled beyond belief over the last 2 years.

[AmericanWxFreak]

What's the limiting factor in central Maryland today? Any chance we can get that slight bubble expanded?

[Eskimo Joe]

Yes it does. I might be in for something like this.

Those simulated radar images are deceiving. The color scale has anything 35dbz and up in the red.

[yoda]

FWIW, SPC mesoanalysis at 15z already has us around 2000 SBCAPE and 1000 MLCAPE

[yoda]

FWIW, SPC mesoanalysis at 15z already has us around 2000 SBCAPE and 1000 MLCAPE

 

Hmmm... 16z has a small area of 2000 MLCAPE and 3000 SBCAPE right over/near KIAD with LI's around -5

 

ETA: Yes, i know shear sucks... i just want some good storms this evening

[olafminesaw]

Could I have a link to a map with current CIN values? A quick google didn't seem to yield any results.

[yoda]

Hmmm... 16z has a small area of 2000 MLCAPE and 3000 SBCAPE right over/near KIAD with LI's around -5

 

ETA: Yes, i know shear sucks... i just want some good storms this evening

 

2500-3000 SBCAPE with 1500-2000 MLCAPE and LI's at -6 look nice at 17z... hope we can get some storms going in a few hours

[yoda]

Could someone explain this image a little better?  I think i get the concept of it, but i just want to be sure -- the higher number means a better chance for severe hail, yes?  The SPC disco of what the map means still has me a bit confused.

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

604

WUUS51 KLWX 311840

SVRLWX

VAC069-187-311915-

/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0041.150531T1840Z-150531T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

240 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

SOUTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRONT ROYAL...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FRONT ROYAL...BUCKTON...NINEVEH...RIVERSIDE...HOWELLSVILLE...

KARO...RIVERTON AND CEDARVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY

LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY

RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER

COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 7830 3886 7835 3905 7821 3898 7802

TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 227DEG 16KT 3892 7825

[Mrs.J]

At the pool watching this come in.