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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion


AlaskaETC

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:huh:

I said I'm basically agnostic toward NAO/AO, and there are several reasons why...I'm not completely ignoring Judah Cohen, but a 70th percentile SAI is not enough to sway me given some other mitigating factors, especially when he lost the super bowl last winter 49-0 after being an 18 pt favorite....

Yea, and add in a particularly strong enso event and you have the potential for strange and/or unexpected things to happen depending on how everything else shakes out. I've been pretty much quiet on winter spec for a while now. I'm kinda done with it. I/we know pretty much everything at this point that needs to go right and also have a good handle on how things can go bad...or really bad... You have a tough outlook this year in the snow department. Temps are a little easier I suppose.

Interestingly, the AO is looking like it could peak @ +3 over the next week. LR guidance keeps a fairly consolidated vortex over the pole through the end of their runs. Doesn't even look muddy. Pretty much strong agreement for long leads.

I'm not sure how meaningful that is in November but since we are moving towards met winter fairly quickly, we probably don't want to see such a strong + event. Hard to budge in Dec if it bleeds into it. I'm ready to see what cards December shows in the LW pattern once we get into range in 2-3 weeks and discuss that. Jan/Feb talk doesn't really get me that excited right now. Hopefully Nov tosses us a fantasy threat to get the blood pumping. lol

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Yea, and add in a particularly strong enso event and you have the potential for strange and/or unexpected things to happen depending on how everything else shakes out. I've been pretty much quiet on winter spec for a while now. I'm kinda done with it. I/we know pretty much everything at this point that needs to go right and also have a good handle on how things can go bad...or really bad... You have a tough outlook this year in the snow department. Temps are a little easier I suppose.

Interestingly, the AO is looking like it could peak @ +3 over the next week. LR guidance keeps a fairly consolidated vortex over the pole through the end of their runs. Doesn't even look muddy. Pretty much strong agreement for long leads.

I'm not sure how meaningful that is in November but since we are moving towards met winter fairly quickly, we probably don't want to see such a strong + event. Hard to budge in Dec if it bleeds into it. I'm ready to see what cards December shows in the LW pattern once we get into range in 2-3 weeks and discuss that. Jan/Feb talk doesn't really get me that excited right now. Hopefully Nov tosses us a fantasy threat to get the blood pumping. lol

Sorry Bob, I had to report this post for dissin' by implication the winter of 86/87. We didn't get rockin' until 1/21/87. What's wrong with you man? Bad weenie for lunch?
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This forum is one of a kind.  Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later.  This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF.  Can't have it both ways now can we?

 

Winter can fail here in every imaginable way possible...Everything is a death omen and we're usually right :(

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This forum is one of a kind.  Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later.  This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF.  Can't have it both ways now can we?

Back-loaded winters ftw. JFM. Our actual winter months...emphasis on F&M. More times than not, Dec is a fail around here. Accept it and move on.

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This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we?

What's wrong with a November torch? I'm playing the odds that it's a good thing. I doubt a November fluke, though 11/87 says it's possible. But I think our better chance is with a December storm as 82/83 is the better of those 2 winters analog-wise given a choice. Of course, they could both fail. In the end, I don't care if there's a good analog so long as we get snow. Preferably, a lot of it.
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Back-loaded winters ftw. JFM. Our actual winter months...emphasis on F&M. More times than not, Dec is a fail around here. Accept it and move on.

 

I don't know if it's cyclical but for much of the 2000s, December was far snowier than March, and we would routinely get snow on December 5th while the following March was usually uneventful.

 

Seems like in the past few years the tables have turned and March has consistently been much more wintry, especially in the cities. I don't really know why.

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We were talking about December.

 

Dec last year I recorded zilch. First time in forever I can remember that. I agree with others here that I would rather have the torch upfront in Nov, Dec. The pattern will flip eventually. If its gonna flip to cold let it happen during prime climo.

 

Edit: just went back and looked at my records. 2004 was the last snowless Dec. I recorded before last year.

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