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Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

AlaskaETC

By AlaskaETC,
in Mid Atlantic

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

My data says to ignore the data and take whatever comes.  If it is warm and wet then so be it.  I wouldn't be surprised if we sneak in a good storm or two when the pattern is in flux.

 

Storm calls:

 

Dec 5th: rain to snow except rain for most near me

Feb 12th: classic coastal gives all 8"+

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Latest Euro LR forecast for DJF says no reason to be pessimistic (this is the free site, and this map is as close to the MA as you can get, so extrapolate!)

Temps

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/2m-temperature-public-charts-long-range-forecast?forecast_type=tercile%20summary&area=South%20America&public_date=201508&lead_time=4%20months

Precip

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast?forecast_type=tercile%20summary&area=South%20America&public_date=201508&lead_time=4%20months

 

Mean Sea Level pressure map looks good too

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/mean-sea-level-pressure-public-charts-long-range-forecast?forecast_type=tercile%20summary&area=South%20America&public_date=201508&lead_time=4%20months

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I don't see any reason to be bearish about this winter. Certainly not at this point. The important long wave features won't show their hand for months.

If we're going to knock down climo+ 3 years in a row, our chances this year are as good or better than we can hope for. The odds of climo+ during ninos are certainly higher statistically than the hands we were dealt the last 2 years. We just pulled out back to back flukes.

Winwxluvr says "gimme precip first" all the time. Odds favor 12+ during djf. Rain is coming just like every winter. But imo we should all be hedging optimistic. At least slightly anyways.

Exactly.  Not a coincidence that every above normal snow year I've had since moving here is also an above normal precip year.

 

I think we all are in a decent position for a good winter.  I think an active southern stream will still send some lows to the lakes and give us rain, but then there's always the Miller A poss. and the low to the OV into a CAD situation for us.  

 

Opportunities is what we are looking for.  I think we will get them.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

     First, I agree with the idea that we're going to have a wet winter here, and that is always half of the battle.

 

     But in the details hypothesized below, the idea of lows tracking into the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley probably isn't a scenario we'll see much of.    That is the storm track for La Nina years.    El Ninos usually don't have lows tracking west of DC, and the CFS precip map posted by mitchnick sure supports that idea.

 

      From what I can recall in 1997-98, there were lots of lows taking nice tracks up the coast;  there just wasn't any cold air in place to avoid rain or a change to rain after 45 minutes of slop.    It's always possible that blocking does somehow set up, and it could easily work out where it's overall warm but we time cold air with the active stormtrack once or twice and hit the jackpot, but seeing that CFS map with torching north and northeast of here makes me worry about the same type of pattern this winter as we had in 1998.

Exactly.  Not a coincidence that every above normal snow year I've had since moving here is also an above normal precip year.

 

I think we all are in a decent position for a good winter.  I think an active southern stream will still send some lows to the lakes and give us rain, but then there's always the Miller A poss. and the low to the OV into a CAD situation for us.  

 

Opportunities is what we are looking for.  I think we will get them.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

     First, I agree with the idea that we're going to have a wet winter here, and that is always half of the battle.

 

     But in the details hypothesized below, the idea of lows tracking into the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley probably isn't a scenario we'll see much of.    That is the storm track for La Nina years.    El Ninos usually don't have lows tracking west of DC, and the CFS precip map posted by mitchnick sure supports that idea.

 

      From what I can recall in 1997-98, there were lots of lows taking nice tracks up the coast;  there just wasn't any cold air in place to avoid rain or a change to rain after 45 minutes of slop.    It's always possible that blocking does somehow set up, and it could easily work out where it's overall warm but we time cold air with the active stormtrack once or twice and hit the jackpot, but seeing that CFS map with torching north and northeast of here makes me worry about the same type of pattern this winter as we had in 1998.

I agree. Not that I think the CFS is worth much esp at this range, but that map is suggestive of a decent storm track, with not much in the way of cold air close by. Still, seems there would be decent odds of getting cold enough air in the area with a storm to have a few legit shots. It will be winter after all. Would have to be just plain unlucky to end up with a 1998 redux.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I agree. Not that I think the CFS is worth much esp at this range, but that map is suggestive of a decent storm track, with not much in the way of cold air close by. Still, seems there would be decent odds of getting cold enough air in the area with a storm to have a few legit shots. It will be winter after all. Would have to be just plain unlucky to end up with a 1998 redux.

from what we can see, Euro agrees, which is comforting

of course, this map is the 3 month (DJF) average vs. the CFS2 FEB maps

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast?forecast_type=tercile%20summary&area=South%20America&public_date=201508&lead_time=4%20months

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

     First, I agree with the idea that we're going to have a wet winter here, and that is always half of the battle.

 

     But in the details hypothesized below, the idea of lows tracking into the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley probably isn't a scenario we'll see much of.    That is the storm track for La Nina years.    El Ninos usually don't have lows tracking west of DC, and the CFS precip map posted by mitchnick sure supports that idea.

 

      From what I can recall in 1997-98, there were lots of lows taking nice tracks up the coast;  there just wasn't any cold air in place to avoid rain or a change to rain after 45 minutes of slop.    It's always possible that blocking does somehow set up, and it could easily work out where it's overall warm but we time cold air with the active stormtrack once or twice and hit the jackpot, but seeing that CFS map with torching north and northeast of here makes me worry about the same type of pattern this winter as we had in 1998.

 

Warmth to the north and northeast isn't necessarily a sign it will be warm here or that there will be no blocking... here are the 09-10 anomalies.

post-39-0-32130600-1439841344_thumb.png

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

Warmth to the north and northeast isn't necessarily a sign it will be warm here or that there will be no blocking... here are the 09-10 anomalies.

cd108.18.249.130.228.13.54.43.prcp.png

I was just about to post the same thing. A +3 anomaly is basically noise when you're talking about a region that's generally frigid in the winter anyways. What's above normal up there is still f'ing cold, so if we can get a way to deliver that "warm" air down here, we can be in business.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

.    It's always possible that blocking does somehow set up, and it could easily work out where it's overall warm but we time cold air with the active stormtrack once or twice and hit the jackpot, but seeing that CFS map with torching north and northeast of here makes me worry about the same type of pattern this winter as we had in 1998.

 

It's kinda hard to worry about anything irt temps. It all hinges on where the low height and pressure anomalies  persist in the ne Pac. 97-98 was too far east. There was no mechanism to build cold in nw-n central Canada. The type of cold that can survive the trip se out of Canada and support wintry precip in the east just wasn't in the cards that year. 

 

It's certainly possible to end up in some sort of similar Pac pattern this year but at least looking at the ssta's right now, there's more work to be done to have a negative feedback from a cold GOA. I personally don't expect the GOA region to look anything like the last 2 years though. Maybe the warm anomalies survive near the coast but expecting the area as a whole to "assist" like it has goes against Nino climo. And this event isn't weak or wimpy. People banking on the big red bullseye to make things right are probably going to get their feelings hurt. 

 

IMO- we probably have equal odds at a favorable persistent low height anomaly far enough West near the aleutians as we do an unfavorable Pac air hose into NW Canada. 

 

Once we get into Nov that hand should start to show itself. The development of the PDO region will bear close watching for sure. Until then we just have to sweat it out. Just like being outside today. Sweat bullets but not worry. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

First, I agree with the idea that we're going to have a wet winter here, and that is always half of the battle.

But in the details hypothesized below, the idea of lows tracking into the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley probably isn't a scenario we'll see much of. That is the storm track for La Nina years. El Ninos usually don't have lows tracking west of DC, and the CFS precip map posted by mitchnick sure supports that idea.

From what I can recall in 1997-98, there were lots of lows taking nice tracks up the coast; there just wasn't any cold air in place to avoid rain or a change to rain after 45 minutes of slop. It's always possible that blocking does somehow set up, and it could easily work out where it's overall warm but we time cold air with the active stormtrack once or twice and hit the jackpot, but seeing that CFS map with torching north and northeast of here makes me worry about the same type of pattern this winter as we had in 1998.

I agree about the storm track, but I still think we will get some of those. We had them in 09-10. Just like we can get a Miller A in a nina, I'm sure we can get a Miller B in a nino

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Although a connection seems to be there, such a small set is full of caveats. But fun to look at nonetheless. I like gridded #'s better than scatters:

 

attachicon.gifJuly AO.JPG

 

 

Looks good until you get below -.600 for July then the wheels come off. 4 out of the top 5 on the list had -AO Augusts as well. Off to a good start there. 

 

This could be better than the SAI/SCE! Dr. Cohen should be scared.

 

Looking good for now...

 

post-2035-0-22011600-1440004772_thumb.gi

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