Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

[Roy]

Thanks for this info. I am having to monitor if we should go to Kansas after Christmas for my family's event. It would be this coming Sunday, so right in the midst of all this. After barely making it in a blizzard with a foot of snow two years ago, I am hesitant to risk it again. That took hours to just go 45 miles north of Wichita on 35.

 

Right now, it's iffy. Some models show I would only have minor snow there. Some show a lot more, even more than that storm, so will see...

 

 

12z Euro shows 1-2 feet of snow pretty much for the TX Panhandle north into MN through the end of its run. Much of this is with the post-Christmas Storm. With an upper low that wrapped up, there will be a very heavy area of snow NW of it. Right now Amarillo, maybe even down to Lubbock through Dodge City, KS looks like the prime zone. Euro shows little in Wichita, OKC or KC, but big accums start maybe 75 miles NW of them.

[bubba hotep]

There has been somewhat of an eastward trend at the surface with the model runs today but when looking at the upper levels, it looks more like just noise at the surface. Things appear to be pretty locked in at this point but I'm still holding out hope... 

[aggiegeog]

There has been somewhat of an eastward trend at the surface with the model runs today but when looking at the upper levels, it looks more like just noise at the surface. Things appear to be pretty locked in at this point but I'm still holding out hope... 

It is such an odd track that I still expect a large shift SE and for it to slow down some. The GEM has been showing a central TX to AR track which is more typical of a closed low that digs into Mexico. Even with the crazy GFS surface temps stay pretty chilly early next week.

[raindancewx]

If Albuquerque gets another 3.6" snow before January 1, 2016, this becomes our snowiest calendar year since 1973. 

[bubba hotep]

It is such an odd track that I still expect a large shift SE and for it to slow down some. The GEM has been showing a central TX to AR track which is more typical of a closed low that digs into Mexico. Even with the crazy GFS surface temps stay pretty chilly early next week.

 

00z GFS continues the shifts, certainly looks to be more than noise and more like a trend now.  

[jm1220]

Oh man, with this SE track on the upper low does it still mean Austin/Buda won't have any impacts?

 

The Euro already had an impressive area of 2000+ CAPE crossing through TX with the upper low. I would think we'd have a decent severe threat down through at least San Antonio. 

[aggiegeog]

I am hearing comparisions to Christmas Eve 2009. With the post-Christmas storm. Could see heavy snow and wind near DFW.

[David Reimer]

This has the potential to be a very interesting weekend across Texas. Shallow cold-air always has a tendency to make it further southeast than progged and we'll be dealing with a deep low pressure. Classic El Nino Low which will make its track across Texas even more interesting. Severe weather potential initially before focus shifts to a crippling winter storm across western sections of the state. If the GFS solutions are correct we'll have to bring winter weather impacts into the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and perhaps even western North Texas. The coast and locations immediately south/southeast of the low will have to be watched for severe weather potential. With ridiculously high precipitation amounts expected for a late-December system we'll literally deal with every hazard possible. Severe weather, flooding, high wind issues, freezing rain, sleet, snow and blizzard conditions across Texas this weekend. I suppose I won't be getting much sleep after Christmas. 

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS takes another bump SE with the H5 vort passing over the DFW area now. Unfortunately, there is near unanimous agreement b/w the 00z Euro, Para Euro, and EPS that the vort will pass NW of DFW keeping us in the warm sector until the best lift and moisture move out of the area. That is a hard combo to argue against and we have probably seen the last of the SE shift on the GFS. Will it shift back towards the Euros at 12z? 

[aggiegeog]

I expect the models to continue catching up and shifting SE and slowing. I expect the heaviest snow will be from the Permian Basin up through western N TX with lighter but still significant snows for the Panhandle and northern Central and N TX with some wrap around snow into NE TX. This is a very strong storm so I don't see it racing NE until it gets at least to Central TX and feels the SE ridge more.

[aggiegeog]

Next week is looking mighty cold with snow to start the week for most of the northern half of the state and an overrunning event around New Year's and 30s and 40s for highs in between.

[bubba hotep]

Hard to tell for sure while out on the road but it looks like a pretty significant shift with the 12z Euro.

[Roy]

Getting excited now, even though I'm 99 percent sure my family Christmas is going to be canceled now for Sunday up in Kansas. I will be in Abilene with my wife's family, which should be a good spot for a few inches or so (or more depending on model and track). Crazy how winter can just show up after being non-existent. Still a long haul to the real winter cold, but it finally looks to be coming in January. I love snow and severe weather, so this weekend will be fun.

[aggiegeog]

Getting excited now, even though I'm 99 percent sure my family Christmas is going to be canceled now for Sunday up in Kansas. I will be in Abilene with my wife's family, which should be a good spot for a few inches or so (or more depending on model and track). Crazy how winter can just show up after being non-existent. Still a long haul to the real winter cold, but it finally looks to be coming in January. I love snow and severe weather, so this weekend will be fun.

It looks like winter is getting going starting this weekend. A 12/24/09 storm is possible followed by a cold week and GFS shows more winter weather and even colder temps to start the new year.

[jm1220]

12z Euro gets accumulating snow into parts of the Hill Country and may even end with flurries down here in the I-35 corridor. 

[raindancewx]

Most of the vendors are showing 4-8" of snow for Albuquerque. Will be interesting to see how that pans out. I could see us getting an inch or a foot, but I do lean towards 6"

[ams30721us]

Welp...if you're in DFW this weekend, you officially have the "S" word in the forecast...per the NWS. 

 

 

 

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT WISHY
WASHY REGARDING THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...THEY
APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF THE LOW BY SATURDAY AND HAVE IT
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE HEART OF TEXAS ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN IS VERY SIMILAR
BUT LINGERS IT OVER US A BIT LONGER. THE GFS AND EURO BOTH
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS STILL ONGOING
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND AREA RESERVOIRS REMAIN
QUITE FULL. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS CREATE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS
BECAUSE OF THE DORMANT VEGETATION...SATURATED SOILS...AND
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT
OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA...BUT IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...A WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A CHANGE OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND APPROACHING THE DFW METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED THAT THE FREEZING LINE WOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAD ENDED.
HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE NOW. A SHARP COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE ON SATURDAY AND
TRANSLATE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT AND USHERING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT
SHOULD BRIGHTEN THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT TO KNOW THAT THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO LEAN MORE TOWARDS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN BRIEFLY
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THESE AREAS INSTEAD OF THE MORE
TYPICAL ICE FORECAST THAT SHOWS UP FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THIS TIME THOUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE
MANY IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL REASONS.
THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL HAPPEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE STORM
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH ACCUMULATION. ALSO... GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO OUR CURRENT
WARM...MOIST SURFACES AND AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REBOUND ENOUGH ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY AND THE SUN
COMING OUT. THE BIGGER CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FLOODING
IMPACTS THAT BEGIN ON SATURDAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

BECAUSE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH/S EXODUS IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR...WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND HOW LONG THE SNOW HANGS
AROUND WILL REMAIN DYNAMIC. THAT BEING SAID...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER AS THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW...THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTS...AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME.

[aggiegeog]

I am glad DFW is acknowledging that there will likely be a changeover for most of E TX. That gives room to modify the forecast if the Arctic air mass does in fact bully its way in faster than modeled.

[jm1220]

18z GFS brings the upper low even further SE and has heavy snow now in the Edwards Plateau and maybe even in the Hill Country. This SE trend seems to be the real deal here. Starting to think snow in the air is a real possibility along I-35 north of San Antonio. 

[nzucker]

Looks like a massive snowstorm for Midland/Odessa area with light accumulations all the way back to El Paso and northern Mexico.

[Roy]

It could be historic for Midland. I lived there for five years before finally getting out of the desert, and we had a few decent snowstorms. But, nothing even close to this. Lubbock always got the pounding. They only average 6 inches a year roughly.

[raindancewx]

I don't know that I buy it marching quite as far south as what the projections show.

[jm1220]

It could be historic for Midland. I lived there for five years before finally getting out of the desert, and we had a few decent snowstorms. But, nothing even close to this. Lubbock always got the pounding. They only average 6 inches a year roughly.

Midland looks to be in a good spot for this now, but there's still time for changes. Dodge City, KS went from the crush zone to maybe an 1-3" because of the SE shifts. But yeah, west TX, and NM into western OK and at this point central KS are likely in for a big time blizzard. 

 

My poor parents flying in from NYC are in for a ride down here in Austin-from near 80 Fri and Sat, to severe weather overnight into Sun, and then a huge temperature crash with maybe some flurries as the upper low departs and sticking snow further into the Hill Country, and highs struggling past 45 on Mon. They're never going to want to visit me here again...

[jm1220]

I don't know that I buy it marching quite as far south as what the projections show.

The ridge looks to be yielding ever so slightly run to run on the models, and the upper low looks particularly intense, and wants to dig south. As of now here in Austin, we're lucky that our severe weather window looks to be overnight Sun morning, and the tornado threat won't be as bad. Looks more like central TX's threat will be straight line winds and a squall line. I think the severe threat out ahead of this in the warm sector isn't being talked about as much. The upper low's continued trend south I would think puts more of down here in the risk zone. 

[Roy]

I am definitely skeptical of the extreme south projections myself, so we will see. Don't know enough to guess myself. Will be something huge for folks regardless.

[Quixotic1]

I'd blizzard chase this thing if it weren't for the holidays. Be nice to get a snow fix.

[Quixotic1]

I am hearing comparisions to Christmas Eve 2009. With the post-Christmas storm. Could see heavy snow and wind near DFW.

Starting to believe in this. 00z GFS seems to be leaning that way as areas NW of here get shellacked just like the 09 storm.

[raindancewx]

My hunch is as the system tries to dig south, it kind of stalls, maybe ends up 50 miles of north of where it is supposed to get to, and whoever is in the favored area where it stalls gets historic snow, and then the little bugger moves ENE before going more sharply NE. I'm just guessing though. The GFS and Canadian are a tiny bit north of what they had six hours ago for a bottom out point in terms of "southness" before the term.

[ingyball]

Another proposed idea floating around is if the low finds itself close to the Texas Coast a Coastal Low could form and move northward and rap itself in snow as it does.

[Jebman]

Oh man, with this SE track on the upper low does it still mean Austin/Buda won't have any impacts?

 

The Euro already had an impressive area of 2000+ CAPE crossing through TX with the upper low. I would think we'd have a decent severe threat down through at least San Antonio. 

Any impacts will be progressive, strong storms should RACE thru the Austin/Buda region. Rainfall should be minimal. That cold front is gonna jet thru here at very high speed, greatly limiting rain accumulations south of Waco.

1) North Texas and northeast will see plenty of rain, and

2) Potential for decent snowfall should be realized in North Texas, Oklahoma and points north and east.

 

I'll be back in Washington  DC by 6pm Tuesday night. That region will get drowned by El Nino, particularly in February, and I'll be there walking around in it. I want heavy soaking rain here in Buda, but this is just the wrong place to be if I like rain. Given, 2015 has been a VERY wet year for south central Texas, but on average this area is a lot drier than Washington DC which is one reason trees in central Texas are about one half to one third the height of trees in northern VA.