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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I know of three winters in Albuquerque where December & January both had over 3" snow at the airport in the past 84 cold seasons:

1943-1944

1965-1966

1982-1983

 

Starting to wonder if that will happen this year too. In the winter of 1914-1915, a weather station three miles or so south of the airport got 12.5" in December and 27.5" in January 1915. I've often wondered why the city hasn't had >=10 inches of snow in January in 100 years (9.5" in Jan 1973), but I suppose it's just the storm track favoring Dec for huge snows, and late Feb/Mar to a certain extent. 

 

It's interesting that >3" in both Dec/Jan doesn't happen more though. Since 1931-32, Albuquerque has had 21 seasons with >=3" snow in two months...so even if we are to get 2-3 months with >=3" snow this season, it's not likely (18/21 against) to be a Dec-Jan combo, and it can't be Oct-Dec, Nov-Dec, or Oct-Dec. So that leaves...Feb/Mar/Apr. January & April tend to be linked, so I'd go with Feb or Mar. 

 

About half of cold seasons where Decembers had >=3" of snow, had >3" snow in another month that same season. I have a scoring system for determining the likelihood of >=2 months with >=3" snow in a season and it rates this season slightly lower than 2014-2015, but only by about 10%. One of the tells believe it or not is a cold June. Winters with >=2 months at >=3" are way over-represented with cold Junes before the snow season. 

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

The period from Dec 20 - Dec 31 has snow in ~70% of El Nino years from 1930 to 2015 in Albuquerque, and we're in that period now, so will have to see what happens. Dec 26 - Dec 30 is especially favored here. I kind of lean towards a blizzard but well see. As it stands now...we haven't had enough snow in December yet for it to be our snowiest month. The next week and a half is key. AMO+ El Nino winters are often big early then quiet after Dec - so we have to watch that too.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The afternoon AFD from FWD on the post Christmas threat:

 

OUR NEXT WEEKEND FORECAST ESSENTIALLY REMAINS THE SAME EVEN

THOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRONE TO SHOWING SOMETHING
DIFFERENT EVERY RUN. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL TO SEE SUCH INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE WHEN TRYING TO MODEL THE BUCKLING OF LAMINAR FLOW AND
INTENSIFICATION/TRACK OF UPPER LOWS WITHIN THEM. TODAY/S MODEL
SAGA SHOWS THE GFS TAKING A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE NOW VERY SLOW WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW TRACKING OVER THE STATE. IF YOU HAVE BEEN KEEPING TRACK...THAT
MEANS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ALL MODELS HAVE TRADED PLACES WITH EACH
OTHER. OBVIOUSLY THE CONFIDENCE IN PICKING THE CORRECT SOLUTION
IS LOW...SINCE THEY ARE BOTH VERY VALID POSSIBILITIES. HOWEVER...
UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HAVE BEEN FREQUENT THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...AND I AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD A
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. A CLOSED LOW IS ALSO THE FORECAST FROM THE
UKMET AND NAVY MODELS WHICH ARE NOW JUST GETTING IN THE 144 HOUR
FORECAST RANGE TO HELP. THIS MEANS OUR FORECAST WILL FEATURE HIGH
POPS FROM CHRISTMAS NIGHT SPREADING INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL ALSO BE
SLOWER WITH THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND TEND TO SHOW A MORE
GRADUAL COOL DOWN SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY...SATURDAY LOOKS WET AND POSSIBLY
STORMY...AND THAT ACTIVE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I saw it. Albuquerque has has 19.4" of snow in 2015. If we can get to 25" this year that'll be damn for impressive for the city. Snowiest calendar years here are 1915, 1946, 1958, 1959, 1973, 1992, and 2006. As far as I know 1973 and 1959 are the only calendar years to top 30" in the city. The snowiest winters (Oct-May) are 1914-15 (40") and 1972-73 (37.4").

 

I believe the calendar year ranking is:

1973 (34.3") 

1959 (30.8")

1915 (28.5") - South Valley (3 miles south of the airport)

1958 (26.5") 

2006 (22.9")

1946 (20.5)

1992 (20.1")

2015 (19.4") 

1997 (18.7")

1949 (17.8")

1986 (17.5")

 

I am missing data for the winter of 1919-20, and 1923-24 to 1930-31. But it does look like we get 20" of snow in calendar year every 15 years or so - six times every 90 years.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

I am starting to get concerned about Louisiana and Mississippi on the day-3 outlook, that is, Wednesday. Supercell parameters are pretty impressive. According to the Sharppy sounding I made, there is an effective-STP over 6 in southern Mississippi! (03z Thursday, Jackson MS area) effective-SRH 600 m2/s2. Perhaps a chance of multiple EF1 or stronger tornadoes.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

Some of you have probably seen my request for annualized snow maps on the main forum. The link provided allows us to see where snow was enhanced in the "strong" El Ninos since 1930 when the ICOADs data starts to get more reliable.

 

My definition here is >=1.5 ONI in Nino 3.4 during DJF using this data set https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696

 

1940-41, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 are the big ones. This year retains some characteristics of 1958-59, 2014-15, 1986-87 and 1987-88 too...as there seem to some predictability in the behavior of El Nino weather in the US tied to the AMO and PDO at 11, 15, 22, 30, 45, and 60 years roughly (+/-5% in each case), so the double El Nino from late 1957-mid 1959 is similar to the late 1986 to mid 1988 El Nino, and then again to the late 2014 to mid 2016 El Nino.

 

Strong El Ninos

 

The area in green for 1997-98 kind of looks like this year for the northern band - big U - NW to SW to MN/WI and then a secondary track that brought more snow to CA, southern AZ, southern NM, and the SE. Storms ran up the NE coast, so the NE interior did well but not the coast.

 

SiOik32.png?1

 

1991-92 never seems to have had the persistent storms hitting the West coast.

jqKqz5D.png?1

1982-83 is like 1997-98 but with a colder AMO.

PpSGjCB.png?1

SzHsZQ5.png?1

brabzpf.png?1

6W6MmH0.png?1

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Some of you have probably seen my request for annualized snow maps on the main forum. The link provided allows us to see where snow was enhanced in the "strong" El Ninos since 1930 when the ICOADs data starts to get more reliable.

 

My definition here is >=1.5 ONI in Nino 3.4 using this data set https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696

 

1940-41, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98 are the big ones. This year retains some characteristics of 1958-59, 2014-15, 1986-87 and 1987-88 too...as there seem to some predictability in the behavior of El Nino weather in the US tied to the AMO and PDO at 11, 15, 22, 30, 45, and 60 years roughly (+/-5% in each case), so the double El Nino from late 1957-mid 1959 is similar to the late 1986 to mid 1988 El Nino, and then again to the late 2014 to mid 2016 El Nino.

 

Strong El Ninos

 

The area in green for 1997-98 kind of looks like this year for the northern band - big U - NW to SW to MN/WI and then a secondary track that brought more snow to CA, southern AZ, southern NM, and the SE. Storms ran up the NE coast, so the NE interior did well but not the coast.

 

 

 

1991-92 never seems to have had the persistent storms hitting the West coast.

 

1982-83 is like 1997-98 but with a colder AMO.

 

 

 

 

Great set of maps. Sad thing is my house in NE TX is barely green on any of those. I do like that the Sangres did well in almost all of those years.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Big snows look almost certain for essentially all of NM and NW TX. Hopefully the gap over the Sangres doesn't actually happen though. Over 2" liquid inches shown over he Eastern Plains of NM all falling as snow. Heavy rain from NM and TX up through the Great Lakes with this storm. Watching the weather around New Year's for another interesting round of weather with a 1040s Plains high and long SW flow.

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

This next system looks to literally drown North and Northeast Texas and points north and east.

 

Austin and Buda are safe, probably just a brief thundershower as the Pacific front trailing the big low passes rapidly thru KEWX.

 

I wish for heavy rain for Austin, but there is no use wishin' because it is not going to happen, best forcing will be well north of AUS.

 

Oh well, I'll be out of here come the 29th. At least Washington DC gets a decent amount of rain in strong El Ninos.

 

Stay safe Dallas! Stay away from that Trinity River!

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

This next system looks to literally drown North and Northeast Texas and points north and east.

Austin and Buda are safe, probably just a brief thundershower as the Pacific front trailing the big low passes rapidly thru KEWX.

I wish for heavy rain for Austin, but there is no use wishin' because it is not going to happen, best forcing will be well north of AUS.

Oh well, I'll be out of here come the 29th. At least Washington DC gets a decent amount of rain in strong El Ninos.

Stay safe Dallas! Stay away from that Trinity River!

It's still too early to say what's going to happen here. The last system like this that was supposed to be a 'non-event' south of Waco gave me 2" of rain. The upper low is swinging pretty far south for us to not have some kind of impact.

And LOL at us not having heavy rain in a strong El Niño in Austin. This is very close to tying our wettest year on record.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

12z Euro shows 1-2 feet of snow pretty much for the TX Panhandle north into MN through the end of its run. Much of this is with the post-Christmas Storm. With an upper low that wrapped up, there will be a very heavy area of snow NW of it. Right now Amarillo, maybe even down to Lubbock through Dodge City, KS looks like the prime zone. Euro shows little in Wichita, OKC or KC, but big accums start maybe 75 miles NW of them.

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PelicanGuy

PelicanGuy

Posted
Posted

Part of the forecast discussion from NWS New Orleans this morning:

 

"THE REAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO COME INTO PLAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DIG
AND SWING NEGATIVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY. DOWN AT
THE SURFACE A LOW ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE RACING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE CWA WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY WITH A MINIMUM OF
AROUND 1006 MB. TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL THEN AIDE IN THE TRANSPORT OF 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS TO POINTS NORTH. PRESUMING THAT SFC TEMPS DO REACH MID 70S
WHILE THESE DEWPOINTS RISE...BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL SHOOT UP
DURING THE DAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SB AND PARCEL
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND MU CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG ALL OVER THE
CWA. HELICITY VALUES AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 200 M2/S2 BUT
SUFFICIENT. NOT SURPRISING WITH A FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS SPEED SHEAR AND JUST
THE VALUE OF THE WINDS THEMSELVES. LOOKING AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS. THE
PRECIP WATER VALUE IS IN A PRETTY NICE SWEET SPOT...NOT TOO HIGH AND
NOT TO LOW AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES. ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT THE ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOW
WIDESPREAD REMAINS TO BE SEEN. IF SFC TEMPS DONT WARM ENOUGH...WILL
JUST HAVE THE DYNAMICS. IF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TOO STRONG THAN THE
MARINE LAYER COULD BE PUSHED TOO FAR INLAND AND A WARM NOSE (SHOWN
CLEARLY ON THE GPT SOUNDING) WILL HINDER SFC BASED STORMS.
REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE AND WARRANTS THE SPC
SLIGHT FOR THE AREA."

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