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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

So, is our first legit winter weather threat starting to take shape in model land? Still in the D8 - 10 range but it has started to hang around a bit. Probably just flurries or snow melting on contact, warm surface but cold column. Probably better chances up into OK and AR.

I like it. Our best storm was at 30-34 degrees. Flake away!

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Anyone have thoughts on the system for Saturday?  SPC has a 15% Day 5 area outline in SE Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas, mentioning the threat for tornadoes/damaging wind.

 

I've been keeping an eye on it for a while now (first noted the potential around the turn of the month), but haven't said much yet because of the forecast range. It's still a few days out, but I'd say confidence is increasing that someone will be seeing some severe storms. As it stands right now, it may be another event that starts around sunset. All in all though, the potential is certainly there for some supercells and possibly tornadoes. As is common for cold season events, instability will be key here.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

The warm (highs in 50s and dry pattern is coming to a close for the NM mountains with a snowy pattern starting up this weekend leading up to Christmas. This is great timing for the holiday season and ski resorts. I am hoping to make it up there sometime this winter to enjoy the great snow year.

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I'm not that high on snow for NM from the next two systems, although could be decent if they grab more moisture than expected late. I am getting a bit concerned - the November AMO value came in a lot higher than last year, high enough to mean for Nov-Apr the AMO will likely (70% shot) be positive. El Ninos with a positive AMO usually have snowy Decembers in ABQ...but so far dry as a bone. I suppose the period to watch is right around Dec 26 - Dec 31 though, that is when a lot of our big December storms come through.

 

AMO is definitely warmer than last year though year over year. It looks to me like the PDO is going to be less warm than last winter with the AMO warm, rather than neutral.  

 

Classic PDO+ will have the blue in the outlined area surrounded by the red "C" near Alaska. The blue is gone this year. Red in the outlined area is actually consistent with a PDO-.  Also, the outlined area needs to be bluer if the Atlantic is to migrate (briefly) into legitimately -AMO territory like it did in Feb-Mar of 2015.

 

csuhffn.png

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

I came up with three analog packages awhile ago for this snow season (Oct-May) in Albuquerque. There are significant differences in when the snow arrives, but they all like this season for ~16-18 inches. The same approach last year projected ~12-13 inches and we got 15.2 inches.

 

One approach is just to split El Nino, La Nina, Neutral events into warm, mild, cold. Last year I used cool (weak) El Nino, this year I used warm (strong). The period I use to determine strength is DJF. Numers are based on this tweet from Phil Klotzbach:

 

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696

 

Another approach is to use six ocean indicies - Modoki vs. Traditional, ONI strength, AMO, PDO, time for event (1st yr or 2nd+?), Monsoon (proxy for Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California). I call this approach ocean analogs.

 

Lastly, I use eight weather variables in the summer to produce years that are most similar. These variables are monthly highs in June, July, August, September, rainfall from June 15 - Sept 30 (monsoon) as a wet/dry signal, time between above avg snowfall in Albuquerque in years, ENSO state, and then ENSO combined with the monsoon (Wet Monsoon+El Nino is best).

 

Overall, the weather approach was working best this year through November on temps, snow, and precip, but it had December as the big snow month overall, although it's really an all or nothing signal. The other two packages prefer January/March. 

 

G4L7k1W.png

 

The winter & spring patterns are actually remarkably similar between the three sets of data. I do think the "strong El Nino" temp look is best for the US east of the Rockies, I think for us the best look is the similar weather look. In the Spring, I like the "similar oceans look" best.

 

KkJAy6x.png?1

Similar weather:

OV70KJD.png

Similar Ocean Indexes:

JhbejhW.png

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

Well, phooey.  I should have known better.  The latest D2 outlook has the severe threat shifted much further west, which seems to be pretty common in severe weather events.  Oh well, I'll be satisfied with some good thunder and lightning in these parts, even though I was hoping for a chance at a more local storm chase.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I came up with three analog packages awhile ago for this snow season (Oct-May) in Albuquerque. There are significant differences in when the snow arrives, but they all like this season for ~16-18 inches. The same approach last year projected ~12-13 inches and we got 15.2 inches.

One approach is just to split El Nino, La Nina, Neutral events into warm, mild, cold. Last year I used cool (weak) El Nino, this year I used warm (strong). The period I use to determine strength is DJF. Numers are based on this tweet from Phil Klotzbach:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696

Another approach is to use six ocean indicies - Modoki vs. Traditional, ONI strength, AMO, PDO, time for event (1st yr or 2nd+?), Monsoon (proxy for Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of California). I call this approach ocean analogs.

Lastly, I use eight weather variables in the summer to produce years that are most similar. These variables are monthly highs in June, July, August, September, rainfall from June 15 - Sept 30 (monsoon) as a wet/dry signal, time between above avg snowfall in Albuquerque in years, ENSO state, and then ENSO combined with the monsoon (Wet Monsoon+El Nino is best).

Overall, the weather approach was working best this year through November on temps, snow, and precip, but it had December as the big snow month overall, although it's really an all or nothing signal. The other two packages prefer January/March.

G4L7k1W.png

The winter & spring patterns are actually remarkably similar between the three sets of data. I do think the "strong El Nino" temp look is best for the US east of the Rockies, I think for us the best look is the similar weather look. In the Spring, I like the "similar oceans look" best.

KkJAy6x.png?1

Similar weather:

OV70KJD.png

Similar Ocean Indexes:

JhbejhW.png

Good post. I'll be back out in NM next week and hope to see some snow! Most of it was melted in the Santa Fe area last week by the time I got out and about.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

With all of the model uncertainty keep an eye on late next week as various models and ensembles and their members  have shown snow for that period though it could just as easily be 60 and showery. The upcoming series of monster Bering Sea lows will result in at least transient cold and serve to break down the PV setting up for a cold Jan/Feb. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It's interesting, the PDO was almost identical in value for Oct 2014/2015, but it was crashing in Oct 2015. It crashed further in Nov 15, so it is now likely to be very different this winter vs. winter 2014-2015.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Nov 15 0.86

Nov 15 1.72

Oct 15 1.49

Oct 14 1.47

Is this a trend or a temporary dip like in the summer of '14. It got down to 0.67 only to rebound back above 2. Also, it looks like a fall or early winter PDO dip is pretty common across stronger El Ninos, based on just a quick look at '82, '87 & '97

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raindancewx

raindancewx

Posted
Posted

The November value is very similar to 1940-41, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1997-98 if you look at historical El Nino years. Those six closest El Nino years with a similar Nov PDO value ended up at a value of ~0.90 for the Nov-Apr period.

 

Three of the six Strong El Ninos in DJF (40-41, 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 97-98) did see the PDO in the "neutral" phase - so that makes me wonder if we'll be positive or neutral. Neutral PDO with El Nino is a legendary pattern for Albuquerque about half the time - 1914-15, 1958-59, 1972-73, 2006-07 - the city had >20" snow in each of those years, and 1959-60, which wasn't an El Nino but had a warm of Gulf of California was also a neutral PDO year with >20" snow.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Of course it would get cold again when I have to travel for the holidays again, just like it did at Thanksgiving...lol. But, I am ready for it. Just please, have it wait to snow until I get home to Kansas and then dump here when I get back. :)

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Of course it would get cold again when I have to travel for the holidays again, just like it did at Thanksgiving...lol. But, I am ready for it. Just please, have it wait to snow until I get home to Kansas and then dump here when I get back. :)

 

I don't think you are going to miss much, it looks like a cool down with the AO/NAO and EPO briefly going negative. Then a warm up into Christmas ugh   :facepalm:  :deadhorse:. Maybe some relief as we head into January...  I not putting much stock into the coming Bearing Sea bomb delivering a significant cold shot. I could be wrong, but there seems to be a significant difference b/w a straight Bearing Sea storm and when a typhoon undergoes extratropical transition and then bombs out. A lot of the downstream foundation work is done while the system is still tropical and then transitioning setting the stage for modification of the Rosby driven downstream ridge and trough. I'm not sure you get all of that without the tropical origins? The advection of warm moist air from the deep tropics, diabatic PV modification, etc. Even then, not every typhoon that goes ET delivers downstream cold shots to the US. I could be total wrong about this but that is what I'm going with :lol:

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